Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[Tony Stark]

This was not a disappointment by any means. Star Trek into Darkness was a disappointment, this is basically performing on the bottom part of what the expected range was. This is still going to have a good run, and with Thanksgiving coming up this is going to have a higher than 2.5 multiplier. I'd say the range is between 215-260 domestic.

Again, CF really isn't going to effect this that much. What killed Thor 1 was Bridesmaids, in week 2 even though Thor was no 1 for two weeks. Bridesmaids took over the no 1 spot the Monday following the 2nd weekend.

There is no competition like that for Thor TDW. The only other big competition in November is CF and Frozen. Thor will at least hold the no 3 spot through the end of the month.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Again, CF really isn't going to effect this that much. What killed Thor 1 was Bridesmaids, in week 2 even though Thor was no 1 for two weeks. Bridesmaids took over the no 1 spot the Monday following the 2nd weekend.

Fast Five also effectively undercut Thor by premiering the week before and blowing up like it did.

The increase from Thor to TDW in terms of OW gross is nearly as big as between Iron Man 2 and Iron Man 3.

 

[kedrell]

Also, TTDW has something like the highest internal multiplier on OW of any of the MCU films. This could get a 3X or so which would put it over $250M. Holidays will help too.

 

[Antihero]

The only thing that is probably going to stop Thor 2 from getting 2.75-3 multiplier at the domestic BO is going to be the release of Hunger Games in two weeks

 

[Tony Stark]

Also, TTDW has something like the highest internal multiplier on OW of any of the MCU films. This could get a 3X or so which would put it over $250M. Holidays will help too.

Yes, I think that is a good indicator for positive word of mouth on this film.

 

[lucienlc]

Yes, I think that is a good indicator for positive word of mouth on this film.

Word of mouth was positive - one reason I think the film held so well on Saturday. People who might have dithered about seeing it after reading the not-so-nice US reviews heard from their friends how much they enjoyed it.
(Fwiw, I saw it in a roughly 75-80% full IMAX theater on Thursday night; then again in a completely sold out IMAX theater on Saturday night.)

It scored an A- CinemaScore grade, so yes, people liked it.

And I bet its overall numbers would have been even higher if it wasn't sharing IMAX with Ender's Game.

 

[Moonwing]

Spoiler

How do you know they redid the ending?
And please dont mention the ACTUAL ending in detail.
Some of us have not seen it yet.

Without details

Spoiler

it ends with Jane waiting for Thor again and it is implemented that he returned to earth. And he does! But it is shown in the after-after credit scene with kiss shown from the distance. In the ending that was shown in second trailer and several TVspots as well as official movie mag - he is in her flat, dressed in human clothes they go out and kiss with London on the background as an ultimate final. Than they edited out of the movie. This scene maybe will be on blue ray.

 

[Moonwing]

This was not a disappointment by any means. Star Trek into Darkness was a disappointment, this is basically performing on the bottom part of what the expected range was. This is still going to have a good run, and with Thanksgiving coming up this is going to have a higher than 2.5 multiplier. I'd say the range is between 215-260 domestic.

Again, CF really isn't going to effect this that much. What killed Thor 1 was Bridesmaids, in week 2 even though Thor was no 1 for two weeks. Bridesmaids took over the no 1 spot the Monday following the 2nd weekend.

There is no competition like that for Thor TDW. The only other big competition in November is CF and Frozen. Thor will at least hold the no 3 spot through the end of the month.

Yep yep, Bridesmaids did that "thing" to first Thor. Than Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ad The Hangover Part II/Kung Fu Panda 2 combo week later- no time for it really.

 

[Liam_H]

Competition always exists though.

 

[Moonwing]

Competition always exists though.

Yep but it worse when "unexpected wild hit" comes into play. They thought that before third week they have breathing room. Like now, they expect more or less competition-less period before catching fire hits. They expected pirates-but on third week.

 

[BigThor]

Sweet!

After a weekend like this 700 million is still in play.

 

[Mr.M]

Definitely a 100 million above what I expected, so kudos to Marvel, but not surprising.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Apparently TDW had a much smaller turn out for 3D compared to Thor. 39% to 60%. It might not help the box office, but I love that people are turning away from 3D.

 

[Destructus86]

Not surprising it's doing so well.It's an awesome movie. Everyone i've talked to who has seen it seems to really enjoy it.

 

[warriorking]

My prediction is it does another 50 million this weekend...

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd love for it to do 50, but I'm going to say the typical 50% we see from this genre, so somewhere around 43, and I predict a low 15-20% drop for Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

BTW, I'll be curious to find out the Monday numbers tomorrow, as it's a holiday in the U.S.

 

[samsnee]

I think Catching Fire will hurt it to a degree because it will cut into TDW's theater count.

 

[kedrell]

Competition always exists though.

True but it's not always of the same measure and that needs to be factored in. The competition Thor1 or Cap1 faced was way worse than what Avengers faced, for example.

 

[kedrell]

Apparently TDW had a much smaller turn out for 3D compared to Thor. 39% to 60%. It might not help the box office, but I love that people are turning away from 3D.

I agree. Leave 3-D for when someone makes a Gravity. Otherwise it's just a waste of time.

 

[kedrell]

I'd love for it to do 50, but I'm going to say the typical 50% we see from this genre, so somewhere around 43, and I predict a low 15-20% drop for Thanksgiving weekend.

I'll be more than happy if it just can crack $40M.

 

[kedrell]

IMAX deals usually run in 2 week periods I believe. So this week is Ender's Game's 2nd. Does that mean next week TTDW will have the format all to itself until CF comes out? That will help a bit.

 

[Jordanstine]

Sweet!

After a weekend like this 700 million is still in play.

Not so sure about that.

$600 + million ok, but not even MOS could do $700 million and that had a stronger opening both OS and DOM.

Speaking of DOM, a 2.3 - 2.4 multiplier seems more realistic.

 

[Jordanstine]

Apparently TDW had a much smaller turn out for 3D compared to Thor. 39% to 60%. It might not help the box office, but I love that people are turning away from 3D.

Also means more people saw TDW even that much more compared to the 1st.

Except they mostly saw it in 2D.

 

[Liam_H]

I think Catching Fire will hurt it to a degree because it will cut into TDW's theater count.

For the small places(1-2 screens) it might but in general it won't really. Thor will just get pushed to the smaller screens while CF take the bigger ones.