Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[Jordanstine]

Actuals:

THOR: THE DARK WORLD is the #1 film in North America: $85,737,841

 

[smashmode]

Actuals:

THOR: THE DARK WORLD is the #1 film in North America: $85,737,841

Thor one of the few comic book films to actually increase on the Saturday, compared to Friday. That is why it hit 85.7 instead of the lower 80's like most projected out.

 

[Tymminator]

Hmmm... B.O.M. doesn't have the take from the Thursday showings listed (I thought it was aprox 7Mill?). I guess that was rolled into the take for Friday, right?

 

[Krystal]

Hmmm... B.O.M. doesn't have the take from the Thursday showings listed (I thought it was aprox 7Mill?). I guess that was rolled into the take for Friday, right?

Yep, that's how they did it. I'll be very interested in the Veterans day take.

It's got 14 days on it's own.

 

[Liam_H]

$10.4M for Monday, drop(52%) is nearly identical to Skyfall.

 

[kedrell]

^Nice! It'll crack the $100M DOM today.

 

[warriorking]

Still think it will pull another 50 Million This weekend...I know I will be there..

 

[Liam_H]

Optimistically low $40s IMO but more likely around $35-40M.

 

[kedrell]

Should be at around $113M heading into the next weekend. Then at $150-155M after the 2nd weekend. And maybe another $14M or so heading into weekend #3. So at around $165-170M before Hunger Games2 drops and predicting this becomes more difficult what with the holidays and such. But I feel confident that I think it can cross $200M before it's 3rd full week is done. Might have another $50M total in the gas tank after that before it's done.

 

[insideguy]

Should be at around $113M heading into the next weekend. Then at $150-155M after the 2nd weekend. And maybe another $14M or so heading into weekend #3. So at around $165-170M before Hunger Games2 drops and predicting this becomes more difficult what with the holidays and such. But I feel confident that I think it can cross $200M before it's 3rd full week is done. Might have another $50M total in the gas tank after that before it's done.

Hunger games is going to put it in the bargain theaters. It will make about 200 million domestic. Actually not great for a marvel sequel.

 

[kedrell]

If you think it's only gonna make $200M then all I can say is that you're wrong. $200M was locked(as in it's certain to go well passed that mark) as soon as the weekend total was known. HG2 will put a sizable dent in it, no doubt. But TTDW will be 85-90% of the way to that number before HG2 even opens. There's no way it puts THAT big a dent in TTDW.

 

[insideguy]

If you think it's only gonna make $200M then all I can say is that you're wrong. $200M was locked(as in it's certain to go well passed that mark) as soon as the weekend total was known. HG2 will put a sizable dent in it, no doubt. But TTDW will be 85-90% of the way to that number before HG2 even opens. There's no way it puts THAT big a dent in TTDW.

It will bring in 200 to 220 million domestic . Thats good but Hunger games is going to not only put in a dent in it its going to wipe it off the map. Hunger games is going to be the biggest domestic opening of the year. Its set up in a perfect spot to do it and coming off the first film making 400 million domestic? This one is going to bring in 500 million easy.

 

[smashmode]

Hunger games is going to put it in the bargain theaters. It will make about 200 million domestic. Actually not great for a marvel sequel.

What? This thing is going to make 650-700 Million World Wide which will be about 200-250 million more than Thor. Yeah, its not that great.

 

[psylockolussus]

Obviously if people think all post-Avengers films will earn 1 billion, then they're up for a disappointment.

 

[tek]

i wonder what the odds were 5 years ago that 2 Thor films will end up grossing a combined $billion .

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

What? This thing is going to make 650-700 Million World Wide which will be about 200-250 million more than Thor. Yeah, its not that great.

Yeah, the majority of superhero sequels don't increase 20-30% globally.

Only TDK, Batman Forever, and Iron Man 3 have done it.

The Marvel formula is working.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

i wonder what the odds were 5 years ago that 2 Thor films will end up grossing a combined $billion .

People were convinced Thor couldn't outperform Hulk because he was less popular and a hard-sell conceptually.

 

[Smashlilman]

Obviously if people think all post-Avengers films will earn 1 billion, then they're up for a disappointment.

The Avengers and Ironman 3 Had ungodly hype behind them.

 

[insideguy]

What? This thing is going to make 650-700 Million World Wide which will be about 200-250 million more than Thor. Yeah, its not that great.

Im sure it will do well worldwide. Honestly worldwide does not interest me that much as far as looking at a movies success. Not because it doesnt make the studio money. Its just such a growing market that its hard to gage. This movie has done very well but as far as domestic gross will finish behind MOS. I thought it would do better than that considering its a sequel, Nothing is competeing against it and like IM3 is following behind the avengers. Just my opinion.

 

[lucienlc]

Im sure it will do well worldwide. Honestly worldwide does not interest me that much as far as looking at a movies success. Not because it doesnt make the studio money. Its just such a growing market that its hard to gage. This movie has done very well but as far as domestic gross will finish behind MOS. I thought it would do better than that considering its a sequel, Nothing is competeing against it and like IM3 is following behind the avengers. Just my opinion.

It's all in how you look at it. MoS came out in the summer; I'm sure TDW would have garnered a larger youthful audience if it was positioned as a summer movie. TDW had to share its IMAX theaters with Enders Game for the first week; its gross would undoubtedly have been larger without that, since people were willing to spend for IMAX, but not so much for regular 3D. Which also means the disparity in audience numbers (as opposed to dollars) was even greater between the two Thor movies, since more people paid for 3D for Thor 1.

TDW will be the first of ALL the Marvel Phase movies to garner more than $500MM worldwide, without having RDJr in the cast.

Furthermore, I suspect the initial expectations for this movie were relatively low. There wasn't a huge marketing campaign associated with it: there were Enders Game cups and things at my theater, for example, but nothing for TDW. There were no tie-ins with McDonalds or any of the other chains. Hot Topic barely offered any products associated with the movie, as opposed to other Marvel movies of recent vintage. Considering what a train wreck this movie projected as when it started (three changes of director; three scriptwriters and Joss to fix things), I think it's done hugely well - and all to the credit of its talented cast rather than promotion. Well, except for Tom Hiddleston's worldwide one-man promotion effort (until the premiere week).

I suspect we'll see far more of a marketing effort by Marvel wrt Thor 3, now that TDW has performed so well without much help.

 

[rashad]

via BoxOffice.com

Thor2 Tues about 5.4m

 

[Micromind]

The Avengers and Ironman 3 Had ungodly hype behind them.

The Avengers was basically an Iron Man movie with Loki as a villain.

(Which probably explains why it was so successful, the most popular Marvel hero actor (RDJ) with the most popular Marvel Villain actor (Hiddleston).)

 

[ironman_rick]

via BoxOffice.com

Thor2 Tues about 5.4m

Holycow............that's a huge drop from Monday

 

[Mr.M]

The Avengers was basically an Iron Man movie with Loki as a villain.

(Which probably explains why it was so successful, the most popular Marvel hero actor (RDJ) with the most popular Marvel Villain actor (Hiddleston).)

Marvel will need a replacement for RDJ for their solo series. But luckily they have him for Avengers 2/3. I think that is more than enough to keep them afloat and finance any ancillary solo endeavors. Getting RDJ was game, set, match for Marvel. Thor 3 looks probable with these numbers. Then you have to wait and see with a potential Cap 3. Their Phase 3 looks a little light right now.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The Avengers was basically an Iron Man movie with Loki as a villain.

(Which probably explains why it was so successful, the most popular Marvel hero actor (RDJ) with the most popular Marvel Villain actor (Hiddleston).)

This post deserves more sarcasm then you gave it.