Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I guess they are expecting it to go up 200-230% Thursday to Friday, which is possible I suppose but I'm not going above 35mil. Maybe I will be wrong and it hits 40mil, we will see.

I don't know why MOS is being talked about when it isn't even competing with Thor as it has already been released on DVD. Thor's comp is The Best Man Holiday.

 

[THOR]

Courtesy of Box Office Mojo.com

Domestic: $181,030,624 40.3%
+ Foreign: $268,295,994 59.7%
= Worldwide: $449,326,618


Thor: TDW:

Domestic: $240,000,000 40%
+ Foreign: $360,000,000 60 %
= Worldwide: $600,000,000

My best guess is a nice $150,000,000 bump from the second movie world wide. I of course hope it makes way more than that.

Looks like I was being a little optimistic in my box office predictions.... Thor:TDW will struggle to hit much over $200M domestic now with the daily numbers coming in.....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's going to surpass your international prediction. I read it's heading for more than 400mil. Your domestic prediction is up in the air until we get second and thrid weekend numbers.

 

[insideguy]

It's going to surpass your international prediction. I read it's heading for more than 400mil. Your domestic prediction is up in the air until we get second and thrid weekend numbers.

I have to believe its going to have a decent weekend I mean what the hell else is out there?

 

[insideguy]

I'm still going to say it brings in $250M DOM but I think it will bring in around $650M WW. I dropped from $700M but those are still good numbers.

Amazing. A new poster that just happens to post in this thread but can't stop bringing up MOS, quite possibly trying to start a flame war. I wonder what's your former name before you were banned.

I meant nothing by it. I was just attempting to articulate what kind of weekday numbers a movie like MOS pulled in in order to get to 291 million. Maybe to avoid controversy I should have used Gravity instead. I know how sensative everyone is about that stuff.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It needs to make as much as it can before Catching Fire. Because within 5 days it will be facing Catching Fire and then Frozen. These numbers aren't get, but as SPIDEY says it is hard to know anything without the second weekend numbers.

 

[BigThor]

I guess they are expecting it to go up 200-230% Thursday to Friday, which is possible I suppose but I'm not going above 35mil. Maybe I will be wrong and it hits 40mil, we will see.

I don't know why MOS is being talked about when it isn't even competing with Thor as it has already been released on DVD. Thor's comp is The Best Man Holiday.

Yep true that, I was about to post the same thing.

 

[Liam_H]

People are saving their money to watch CF multiple times.

 

[Tymminator]

I meant nothing by it. I was just attempting to articulate what kind of weekday numbers a movie like MOS pulled in in order to get to 291 million. Maybe to avoid controversy I should have used Gravity instead. I know how sensative everyone is about that stuff.

The thing is though, Fall/Winter movies behave differently and you still can't compare.

For example, look at Man of Steel than look at Skyfall. At this same point in Skyfall's timeline if you compared them day to day looking only at it's first week, it's not matching Man of Steel either. If you looked at it the same way you are looking at T:TDW now without looking ahead, you would think it wouldn't make as much as it would, but in the end, Skyfall had a bigger domestic take than Man of Steel. Again, the seasons just roll out differently.

That said, I would really be surprised if T:TDW made a domestic gross close to MoS, but like was stated previously, it's better to get a pulse after the second weekend.

I also was comparing it to Skyfall earlier in the week (and other November movies actually, they have 5 lined up together with T:TDW just to compare) but the last few days it had slipped a bit.

I think BOM has a drop of 60% predicted for this weekend. but in the end, we just have to wait and see.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

Asked some buddies? Real empirical study there Nolanite. Most of my friends love it and have seen in multiple times.

The midweek numbers aren't surprising for November. People are either working or in school. I'd expect things to pick up this weekend significantly.

If I said "most" of my friends would that have made my analysis just as good as yours? "Most" of my friends have no interest in seeing the film, when I mention it to them.

The #'s for this film are dipping....quickly. Those #'s are telling.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

Well I'm hoping Thor makes $40M this weekend but most are predicting it will make around $40M but it will still be number one. Not to bad.

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

Of course it will be #1.

No other movies are being released this weekend. Not until the big one with Catching Fire in two weeks.

 

[Moonwing]

200-210 at max and it including the "late legs" aka TH/Loki fangirls repeat viewings. Not so glorious. But OS will save it as always.

 

[warriorking]

Still think TDW will limp to 250 Million Domestic...
When CF opens it will crush everyone but that's not to say TDW will have zero returns, it might bring in another 15 to 20 Million during that weekend...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Of course it will be #1.

No other movies are being released this weekend. Not until the big one with Catching Fire in two weeks.

You know if Thor falls hard enough I think The Best Man Holiday has an outside shot at the number one slot. I'm not going to be the one to predict that but those are my thoughts.

 

[warriorking]

Nah, Best Man Holiday is tracking in the low teens this weekend and no one expects TDW to drop that low...
I think TDW gets close to 40 Million this weekend...we shall see..

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Tracking isn't always right. I think The Best Man Holiday is opening somewhere in the 20's. I'm thinking Thor will do 34mil now. Don't see how it gets to 40mil off of that Thursday number but stranger things have happened I guess.

 

[Liam_H]

How much the movie jumps on Friday is going to be very telling, a +200% increase would explain some of the harsh drops.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I've only seen children's movies go up 200+%. I am giving it a 180% jump though so it's not like trying to undershoot the film. I wouldn't be surprised to see it only go up 140% to be honest.

 

[Tony Stark]

How much the movie jumps on Friday is going to be very telling, a +200% increase would explain some of the harsh drops.

What harsh drops? Other than Tuesday this thing has pretty much mirrored Skyfall's performance during the week.

200% is probably too high, I think it could match Quantum of Solace's 177%, and that was a far worse movie than Thor TDW was.

 

[Liam_H]

It dropped hard on Tuesday and Wednesday.

If you go with that Friday jump then around 60% increase on Saturday is needed to keep the weekend drop around 60%.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What harsh drops? Other than Tuesday this thing has pretty much mirrored Skyfall's performance during the week.

200% is probably too high, I think it could match Quantum of Solace's 177%, and that was a far worse movie than Thor TDW was.

That is an interesting way of writing that...

And how has it mirrored Skyfall? TDW had way harsher drops from Monday to Wednesday percentage wise, while making less money...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=bond23.htm

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=thor2.htm

 

[insideguy]

That is an interesting way of writing that...

And how has it mirrored Skyfall? TDW had way harsher drops from Monday to Wednesday percentage wise, while making less money...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=bond23.htm

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=thor2.htm

Hey thats a cool chart. Did skyfall have to go against any competition in its third weekend like Hunger Games?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

SkyFall had to go up against Twilight in it's second weekend.

 

[insideguy]

SkyFall had to go up against Twilight in it's second weekend.

Interesting. I think Hunger Games has much more multiple generational appeal than Twilight. Well I guess that goes without saying considering how good the first Hunger Games did. Hunger Games and Thor will be fighting for the same type of audience, and Hunger games has an even broader audience. It will be interesting to see.


If Thor pulls in 35 million this weekend that puts it around 145 million. I just cannot see how it pulls in another hundred million after that to make it to 250.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Catching Fire" and "Frozen" are going to kill this Thanksgiving imo. And they pretty much cover the important demos. But until that happens, Skyfall had more competition going into Thanksgiving in comparison.