Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

[Mr.M]

I think they are biding time until DoFP comes out before making a move. That obviously means the film won't be making June 2015 if that's the case, although things may all be ready to go by then, as Trank and Co. merely await the green light once box office projections become concrete. We also haven't heard any notable Star Wars news either in terms of casting, and that is due out only a few months later than June 2015. Totally different animal which has zero chance of being scrapped though.

I think things bode well if DoFP is a billion dollar type film. I think they'd be less reluctant to gamble with a FF reboot if they have a bonafide hit with X-Men. I don't think it bodes well if DoFP performs just okay, maybe enough to fast track X-Men:A, but no additional ensemble X-films. In that case, they may feel the need to take more risks and build up to an epic crossover that can deliver Avengers money.

 

[Tymminator]

I think they are biding time until DoFP comes out before making a move. That obviously means the film won't be making June 2015 if that's the case, although things may all be ready to go by then, as Trank and Co. merely await the green light once box office projections become concrete. We also haven't heard any notable Star Wars news either in terms of casting, and that is due out only a few months later than June 2015. Totally different animal which has zero chance of being scrapped though.

I think things bode well if DoFP is a billion dollar type film. I think they'd be less reluctant to gamble with a FF reboot if they have a bonafide hit with X-Men. I don't think it bodes well if DoFP performs just okay, maybe enough to fast track X-Men:A, but no additional ensemble X-films. In that case, they may feel the need to take more risks and build up to an epic crossover that can deliver Avengers money.

Good ideas/points all around.

Re:casting, your Star Wars reference is not only a good point, but made me remember that except for Rudd, we also have no casting news about the 2015 Ant-Man and that's also definitely going to be made (and we still have not had it confirmed if he's Lang or Pym).

 

[Crimz]

I think they are biding time until DoFP comes out before making a move. That obviously means the film won't be making June 2015 if that's the case, although things may all be ready to go by then, as Trank and Co. merely await the green light once box office projections become concrete. We also haven't heard any notable Star Wars news either in terms of casting, and that is due out only a few months later than June 2015. Totally different animal which has zero chance of being scrapped though.

I think things bode well if DoFP is a billion dollar type film. I think they'd be less reluctant to gamble with a FF reboot if they have a bonafide hit with X-Men. I don't think it bodes well if DoFP performs just okay, maybe enough to fast track X-Men:A, but no additional ensemble X-films. In that case, they may feel the need to take more risks and build up to an epic crossover that can deliver Avengers money.

I'm conflicted, I want DoFP to do well, but I also want the F4 rights to revert. I just have to hope that they don't want to make the movie.

In terms of box office potential, I can't tell how much it would make if they decided to go through with it. I'm not good with things like this.

 

[Six]

I'm thinking... Mars Needs Moms numbers.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

I'm thinking... Mars Needs Moms numbers.

Are you serious? Lol.

 

[Six]

I hope so

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

I hope so

Even poor superhero movies like Ghost Rider 2 and Green Lantern did far, far better than Mars Need Moms' type of performance. I wouldn't count on it.

What's the budget supposed to be?

 

[VICTORVONDOOMX]

$16.68 It's only goal is to keep the rights. The way it looks it might break even.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

 

[Six]

Would Fox be legally allowed to make a movie with a 100 dollar budget and release it in selected theatres and market it as "So bad thats its good"? Or do they have to at least have to try to make it seem legit? I'm sure they'd go with the former route if they could.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Would Fox be legally allowed to make a movie with a 100 dollar budget and release it in selected theatres and market it as "So bad thats its good"? Or do they have to at least have to try to make it seem legit? I'm sure they'd go with the latter route if they could.

Yes, they're going with the latter route. Trank and Fox want to make a good movie.

 

[Six]

They want to keep up with appearances.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's clear they are going to do this movie on the cheap, based on the BO from the previous films. X-men was a far more popular franchise and XFC only bought in 146M domestic.

To do FF right you really need a 150M or better budget. XFC's production budget was 160 and it was hardly a effects laden movie. They will try to do FF on a 100-25M production budget, and it will look cheap and worse than the previous films.

No one is going to bite on this one. The audiences are not easily fooled anymore when they're sold cheap reboot crap. Look at the Robocop reboot. That movie is an unmitigated flop and it had a three day head start into a holiday weekend, and Lego movie kicked it's robotic ash.

This movie won't make 100M domestic, and you can take that to the bank. Think Percy Jackson type numbers, yet another franchise Fox screwed up.

 

[metaphysician]

I am pretty sure I've read that, after the Corman fiasco, Marvel specifically put in protections in the contract from anyone ever trying that again. Even if they don't, it'd be grounds for a lawsuit, and Disney has much meaner lawyers. So no, Fox has to actually make a "good" faith effort.

 

[Six]

It's clear they are going to do this movie on the cheap, based on the BO from the previous films. X-men was a far more popular franchise and XFC only bought in 146M domestic.

To do FF right you really need a 150M or better budget. XFC's production budget was 160 and it was hardly a effects laden movie. They will try to do FF on a 100-25M production budget, and it will look cheap and worse than the previous films.

No one is going to bite on this one. The audiences are not easily fooled anymore when they're sold cheap reboot crap. Look at the Robocop reboot. That movie is an unmitigated flop and it had a three day head start into a holiday weekend, and Lego movie kicked it's robotic ash.

This movie won't make 100M domestic, and you can take that to the bank. Think Percy Jackson type numbers, yet another franchise Fox screwed up.

Exactly. People keep saying that its only the superfans who won't see this movie. Ha. Anti-reboot sentiment is huge, so not only are the fans of the comic not going to see it, but the general audiences aren't going to see it. The Fantastic Four name is definitely not a big enough draw to get on the fence people to see it. Simply existing won't get peoples butts in the seats. If Fox think they can make this movie without losing millions of dollars, they've got another thing coming.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Exactly. People keep saying that its only the superfans who won't see this movie. Ha. Anti-reboot sentiment is huge, so not only are the fans of the comic not going to see it, but the general audiences aren't going to see it. The Fantastic Four name is definitely not a big enough draw to get on the fence people to see it. Simply existing won't get peoples butts in the seats. If Fox think they can make this movie without losing millions of dollars, they've got another thing coming.

Okay, so if the rights reverted to Marvel and they made a Fantastic Four movie, general audiences wouldn't go see it because they are anti-reboot. K.

 

[Six]

Okay, so if the rights reverted to Marvel and they made a Fantastic Four movie, general audiences wouldn't go see it because they are anti-reboot. K.

Yes, if it was rushed and disrespectful to the source material. Marvel have an excellent track record of faithfully adapting their properties, AND making a lot of money while doing it. So why would they change that? Fox can barely handle X-Men. Now they're trying to juggle FF with it.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Yes, if it was rushed and disrespectful to the source material. Marvel have an excellent track record of faithfully adapting their properties, AND making a lot of money while doing it. So why would they change that? Fox can barely handle X-Men. Now they're trying to juggle FF with it.

Ah okay, so now it's more than just "anti-reboot sentiment" from the general audiences. If Marvel does it, this powerful force of anti-reboot sentiment that you claim would prevent general audiences from seeing this magically disappears... This movie has been in development with Trank since early 2012 and why would general audiences have an idea of what is "disrespectful" to the source material of a property you just said was not big enough to sell on name alone? Your logic just seems to collapse on itself. Sorry, not buying it.

"Simply existing won't get peoples butts in the seats." I agree with that, obviously. Every studio has to sell their movie. Usually, that's in the form of trailers, posters, interviews, advertising tie-ins etc. That comes later, when there is actually a product to market.

 

[Six]

So far, everyone involved with this project has given the fans a smug "You're going to go see it anyways" attitude. Look at Josh Trank's twitter. All it is is him insulting people asking him questions, and making "clever" posts about little he cares about the fans. "LOL my dogs are sleeping becuz they reading peoples feedback! Screw fan feedback, this is MY franchise now!" That is NOT how you sell a movie. Its only going to get worse and worse as time goes on and they get more and more desperate.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

So far, everyone involved with this project has given the fans a smug "You're going to go see it anyways" attitude. Look at Josh Trank's twitter. All it is is him insulting people asking him questions, and making "clever" posts about little he cares about the fans. "LOL my dogs are sleeping becuz they reading peoples feedback! Screw fan feedback, this is MY franchise now!" That is NOT how you sell a movie. Its only going to get worse and worse as time goes on and they get more and more desperate.

We're not talking about selling the movie to fans, or what you previously called "superfans." We're talking about selling the movie to what you called "general audiences." Please stop waffling. General audiences are not reading tweets about a movie that hasn't been made yet, based on a property you just called not big enough by name, from the unverified-1600-person-followed account of a director they barely know exists. His dog response didn't make headlines. And the subsequent trailers, posters, interviews, advertising tie-ins are not going to be plastered with the snarky retorts of Josh Trank.

 

[Six]

You are really underestimating word of mouth and bad buzz is already circling this film like a vulture waiting for it to die. They need to sell us this movie before we buy into it. So far they've done nothing but piss people off and its getting worse and worse.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

They need to sell us this movie before we buy into it.

Yes, I know. I already addressed that point. I can see this going in circles for hours. You win.

 

[Six]

 

[Figs]

You are really underestimating word of mouth and bad buzz is already circling this film like a vulture waiting for it to die. They need to sell us this movie before we buy into it. So far they've done nothing but piss people off and its getting worse and worse.

Piss people off, as in piss fanboys/hardcore comic fans off. I'm willing to bet a lot of the general audience won't care so long as the trailer makes the film look entertaining.

As for word of mouth. I'm sure there are morons out there that won't see it because their fanboy co-worker, friend or family member tells them the movies going to suck because they have a black man portraying a character that is supposed to be white. Those "morons" are going to be the minority though since most people won't care because most people that are not fans/fanboys likely never got into the comics. Meaning they don't have a huge attachment to these characters.

Both Thor movies did fairly well despite casting Idris Elba as Heimdall. A NORSE god. I remember there was a group of people that were crying racism or something when he was cast in the first movie but like I said before, they seemed to be a minority and the film still did pretty well at the box office.

 

[Six]

Piss people off, as in piss fanboys/hardcore comic fans off. I'm willing to bet a lot of the general audience won't care so long as the trailer makes the film look entertaining.

As for word of mouth. I'm sure there are morons out there that won't see it because their fanboy co-worker, friend or family member tells them the movies going to suck because they have a black man portraying a character that is supposed to be white. Those "morons" are going to be the minority though since most people won't care because most people that are not fans/fanboys likely never got into the comics. Meaning they don't have a huge attachment to these characters.

Way to make it about race again. Its not like we don't already have enough of that going on in other threads.

And what makes you think Fox will be able to perform a miracle and make a trailer that gets people interested? They're having a hard enough time as it is keeping people interested in X-MEN. Its not like we have a shortage of superhero movies coming out. This time they have to make people forget about the other 2 FF movies and convince people why it will be better this time, which they're doing a terrible job of already. So many red flags already and they haven't even started filming. When you piss off your built in audience, thats one bad place of a red flag.