Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

[Kelly]

The thing about this movies is they get a lot of their money from repeat viewers...and many of those repeat viewers are those comic book fans that people keep saying are a small number.

There are a hell of a lot of people like me that were not major readers of the CB, but watched the cartoons and that is what they know of the F4, and I can probably be correct in saying there are MANY MORE of those than people realize and they "up" that "fandom" of the F4 616 by a lot. They have kids, and many of them actually liked the first F4 my family is FULL of moviegoers and they really liked F4, not so much the 2nd in the series...but the first one they enjoyed. I have a feeling that are looking for something similar to, but hopefully much better than what they got the first time around, and they were repeat viewers with their kids.

We know what happens when you cast an "it" person in the wrong role....not much.


I can hear my sister and brother in law now, both go to movies at least 2 to 3 times a week......"that was a fun movie, but why did they call it the Fantastic Four?"

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Repeat viewing is definitely a large factor when it comes to comic and family films. Look at a film like Frozen. It is marching to a billion because little ones and their parents can't get enough. They keep going back.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Again, those are still way bigger numbers than Fantastic Four is likely to do. They are all a good deal bigger than The Wolverine, for instance, and I'd be shocked if the FF reboot even does that well.

I am not disagreeing at all. My point is that box office wise, Pixar is not slipping. In fact they are exactly where they have been for over a decade.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

The thing about this movies is they get a lot of their money from repeat viewers...and many of those repeat viewers are those comic book fans that people keep saying are a small number.

Absolutely. That's what made Star Wars blow through anything anybody thought was possible at the time. If a film can get people willing to go back for a 2nd or 3rd time, they don't even have to appeal to a broad audience to make big numbers.

While many may claim that films like this don't need to please fans, I don't buy it. Sure, a great, well-marketed film can appeal to a broad audience, but we don't get many great well-marketed films, and assuming this will be a stand-out on its own merits is foolish.

The whole reason comic-book rights are so lucrative and the reason we have so many comic-book films and the reason those comic-book films make so much money at the box office is because of the fans that some feel don't need to be considered.

 

[Kelly]

Repeat viewing is definitely a large factor when it comes to comic and family films. Look at a film like Frozen. It is marching to a billion because little ones and their parents can't get enough. They keep going back.

Hey, I've seen it 3x myself....lol and I saw it with adults every time...lol

 

[Six]

I'm going to tell all my friends to see Pixar's next movie, Inside Out when it comes out on June 19th. That, or see the Avengers: AoU again.

Btw guys, Inside Out is being directed by the guy who made Up, and written by the guy who wrote Toy Story 3.

 

[KangConquers]

I'll go with:


$150 M Budget
$ 85 M Promotion and advertising (globally)

$49 M OW
$118 M DOM
$189 M Foreign
$307 M Worldwide

$307 M / 2 = $153.5 M to the studio after theater cut, unions dues etc.

$153.5 M net on $235 M spending. No sequel. Rights returned, property damaged in the eyes of the public and rendered unusable for another 10 years. Thanks Fox.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Marvel would find a way to incorporate the FF in the MCU regardless. Maybe introduce them in an Avengers film or something first to get the audience buzzing about a new and cool take on them to resurrect the brand and then go from there.

 

[Dr Tactics]

I'll go with:


$150 M Budget
$ 85 M Promotion and advertising (globally)

$49 M OW
$118 M DOM
$189 M Foreign
$307 M Worldwide

$307 M / 2 = $153.5 M to the studio after theater cut, unions dues etc.

$153.5 M net on $235 M spending. No sequel. Rights returned, property damaged in the eyes of the public and rendered unusable for another 10 years. Thanks Fox.

Don't forget that 10% owed to Marvel (30.7 Mill) Off the flop...

 

[metaphysician]

Marvel would find a way to incorporate the FF in the MCU regardless. Maybe introduce them in an Avengers film or something first to get the audience buzzing about a new and cool take on them to resurrect the brand and then go from there.

And all else failing, they'd make use the the various villains and supporting cast, which wouldn't bear the same taint.

 

[Zarex]

Though FOX's radical invention of the team is extremely frustrating, the benefit is that Marvel can put out a version of the FF that is a spiritual successor to the Story films, though hopefully far above those in quality. Marvel can field a much older team that would fit in with the veteran heroes of the MCU - Late 40s (or older) Ben and Reed with Sue and Johnny being at least a decade younger than their other two teammates. Have Franklin and Valeria as an existing part of the team and playing a key role in the group's adventures. And while "Fantastic Four" as a name might be toast, "FF" with a colon may be usable as a title for an MCU reboot.

 

[Brutalitops]

I'll go with:


$150 M Budget
$ 85 M Promotion and advertising (globally)

$49 M OW
$118 M DOM
$189 M Foreign
$307 M Worldwide

$307 M / 2 = $153.5 M to the studio after theater cut, unions dues etc.

$153.5 M net on $235 M spending. No sequel. Rights returned, property damaged in the eyes of the public and rendered unusable for another 10 years. Thanks Fox.

I can guarantee you Fox will not be giving this movie a $150 million budget. I can almost guarantee you Fox will be giving this movie a below $100 million budget. There is a reason they hired Trank, he can shoot a "superhero movie" on a (comparably) shoestring budget. This'll probably be a $85-$95 million production.

Fox will be able to make a profit on this if they keep the movie cheap.

 

[starscream22]

I'll go with:


$150 M Budget
$ 85 M Promotion and advertising (globally)

$49 M OW
$118 M DOM
$189 M Foreign
$307 M Worldwide

$307 M / 2 = $153.5 M to the studio after theater cut, unions dues etc.

$153.5 M net on $235 M spending. No sequel. Rights returned, property damaged in the eyes of the public and rendered unusable for another 10 years. Thanks Fox.

That's being quite generous..

From what I've read only in the US does Hollywood get half of the pizza. Overseas barely a 3rd.

And don't forget Marvel-Disney's 7%-10% of whatever's left.

And this isn't including Uncle Sam's cut.

 

[starscream22]

I personally don't think that this film will make anything near $100M in the US.

You figure if The Wolverine only made $133M in the US with no real competition surrounding it last year. How's a franchise thrown in the middle of June that the GA really doesn't care about and the fandom is divided on going to do any real numbers..?

I really think this film is going to do "After Earth" numbers if that!

Like others have mentioned I'd go see Avengers 2 again or give Jurassic World a try before I would Fox. Plus little kids are going to want to see Inside Out.

The following week is Ted 2 which did over @500M a couple years ago.

So yeah a Fantastic Flop is inevitable. But I doubt Fox even cares...

 

[Tymminator]

Plus little kids are going to want to see Inside Out.

Dude, I'M going to see Inside Out, and I'm a 47 year old man.

 

[starscream22]

Dude, I'M going to see Inside Out, and I'm a 47 year old man.

Well Pixar is known for appealing to adults as well as kids so duly noted.

Hell if they were to put some type of Incredible's cameo in it I'd pay to see it twice in IMAX and buy the bluray!

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Dude, I'M going to see Inside Out, and I'm a 47 year old man.

If it is anything near as good as Up, I'll be there.

 

[Spider-Fan]

That's being quite generous..

From what I've read only in the US does Hollywood get half of the pizza. Overseas barely a 3rd.

And don't forget Marvel-Disney's 7%-10% of whatever's left.

And this isn't including Uncle Sam's cut.

That is true, but it is a changing trend. You also have to factor in that global interest is increasing in superheroes as a whole, so overall BO numbers for CBMs have been going up overall, even if domestically, they're doing basically what they always did.

That said, the FF property is already damaged (see underperforming 2nd film), and the buzz on this so far isn't good. FOX will have to knock it out of the park either on casting Doom (if in the movie), the costumes, or trailer (likely some combination of all 3).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hey, I've seen it 3x myself....lol and I saw it with adults every time...lol

I took my niece twice, but yeah I have seen it 5 times myself. I love it.

 

[Jason Kane]

I see it making the same amount Catwoman made a decade ago domestically and internationally.

That and Razzies galore

 

[EssayM]

Here's my take:

If it's a fun and enjoyable movie with interesting characters and a compelling plotline that represents the characters fairly enough, it will do well and they will make more.

If it's dull, insulting, and/or just all around unwatchable, it will languish in theaters for a few months before becoming a rental and nobody but hardcore fans will remember it even happened. Then in 5-10 years, there will be a reboot (hopefully by Marvel) and we can get back to the FF being awesome.

Either way, there's no real harm done.

 

[Kelly]

Wow....

 

[starscream22]

I'm betting on it being "Unwatchable".

But even a mediocre to half decent reboot in spite of it's cast wont stand a chance against it's competition next year.

 

[Fondue]

Here's my take:

If it's a fun and enjoyable movie with interesting characters and a compelling plotline that represents the characters fairly enough, it will do well and they will make more.

If it's dull, insulting, and/or just all around unwatchable, it will languish in theaters for a few months before becoming a rental and nobody but hardcore fans will remember it even happened. Then in 5-10 years, there will be a reboot (hopefully by Marvel) and we can get back to the FF being awesome.

Either way, there's no real harm done.

exactly

 

[Dr Tactics]

Here's my take:

If it's a fun and enjoyable movie with interesting characters and a compelling plotline that represents the characters fairly enough, it will do well and they will make more.

If it's dull, insulting, and/or just all around unwatchable, it will languish in theaters for a few months before becoming a rental and nobody but hardcore fans will remember it even happened. Then in 5-10 years, there will be a reboot (hopefully by Marvel) and we can get back to the FF being awesome.

Either way, there's no real harm done.

Would you put you're money in the production of this movie? Would you expect a return on your investment by all you've seen? Tell me why..

SHOW ME THE MONEY!!