I wrote "may be able to to put out a quality version" on the cheap. I doubt it, but I suppose it is possible.
Fair enough.
Kick Ass and the FF are in no way, shape or form comparable.
Then neither is FF and Avengers. Either films that are not as epic as Avengers can be successful or they can't.
The problem is that, according to the 2008 Marvel Entertainment Annual Report (online at sec.gov), Marvel has control over merchandise for licensed films. FOX has never been able to do their own merchandising with their Marvel films.
So Disney does the merchandizing, as they've done in the past. Either way, merchandising gets done, even when MCU films are out. They idea that Disney will sabotage their own income is meritless.
Your theory's methodology is completely wrong here. RDJ made the vast majority of his money on the back end. It wasn't in the budget. Everyone else was basically paid peanuts except for Joss, who I believe also made his money on the back end. They film just cost $225 million because they had real high quality special effect work.
And locations, and sets and numerous high quality actors and, and, and... This idea that the vast majority of the bill is for CGI doesn't seem to be based in anything.
Now if you are expecting a genuine visual feast out of the FF, and why shouldn't you, it is going to cost real money. You aren't doing it for $150m without it looking like it is cutting corners. You just aren't.
Now if you are willing to have subpar CGI, short action sequences and basically end up attempting to make another early 00's superhero film, good luck getting people into the theater to see it in mass. No one wants to watch the first X-Men film again. It is a good movie, but it is so small compared to what audiences expect now.
Also the reason why the Silver Surfer film looked bad in comparison to the first film, was because they actually attempting something visually ambitious, with a budget that didn't match that ambition. The fact that the first FF film cost as much as it did still kinda boggles the mind. They did nothing.
I think expecting FF to have a bunch of expensive city-destruction scenes would be ill-advised at best. Expecting them to explore the negative zone and subterranea - relatively cheap 'visual feasts' makes more sense. The idea that this can't be done for 150M flies in the face of what we've seen films do for less than that. There was nothing cutting corners about Rise of The Planet of The Apes, or even District 9. Your inflated sense of what is needed for a great looking movie is outdated. The money in the previous FF franchise was mis-spent. Using it as any kind of gauge is ill advised.
No you can make it for whatever you want. But how much you are willing to invest determines how big it is going to be. How unique it is going to look. The first two Fantastic Four films are not pretty. The Silver Surfer was, but that is literally it.
You can do Ben right, or you can do him cheap. Same with the entire crew.
To think you can just say "well Sue goes invisible, that's cheap" is completely missing the point of film imo. Her invisibility, her shields, they need visual flair, something unique to them. Or you can be bland and have no one show up.
To clarify my point: making dynamic flair-laden versions of Sue and Johnny are extremely cheap by any standard. The vast majority of the work with Sue is making the practical effects right so it seems like her forcefield has weight. The vast majority of the work with Johnny is the lighting effects for the area he's in. Lighting a guy (and other stuff) on fire, turning a girl invisible, making a forcefield effect... they're just plain easy. There's no way to make it a significant cost unless you spend CGI money badly, something that's not going to happen under Trank.
Doing a CGI Thing, that
could be expensive theoretically, but nowadays... I'm not so sure. I look at films with CGI characters that have been done remarkably cheap ie Paul/Ted, then at the new Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles film which stars four entirely CGI characters without blowing up the budget... it seems the cost is largely low, either due to new tech or new techniques. The only real CGI challenge is Mr. Fantastic's stretchiness not looking cartoony, now that IS hard, and that is not cheap.
Unless the FF stops acting like the FF and starts acting like Avengers, it's in good shape, budgetwise, at 100M. Throwing more money at the problem is rarely the best answer. You can do it right *and* cheap in the FF's case.