Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]357131[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]355309[/split]

 

[Frodo]

True. After B&R WB swore up and down we'd get a sequel, after SR WB swore we'd get a sequel, and after Spiderman 3 Sony swore we'd get a sequel. We eventually have gotten Batman, Superman and Spiderman films but they aren't sequels. Something tells me the same will happen to GL. I suspect WB still thinks there's money to be made in GL but this sequel talk is more about face saving then anything else.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Superman Returns seems to be the only false alarm. Batman and Spidey did have sequels planned after their respective last films, creative differences just stalled them.

 

[Karelia]

Superman/Batman/Spider-Man are all big names that sell alone. Green Lantern is not in the same category as them is the thing. We've seen movies that do terrible that get sequels anyways (and this movie isn't terrible, IMO. It's just average.) If the budget wasn't so ridiculous, most would be saying it's making decent money.

I just want a sequel, gosh darnit. I'll be hoping for one until they confirm they're not working one.

Green Lantern at box office so far:
Domestic: $89,311,000 75.2%
+ Foreign: $29,400,000 24.8%


= Worldwide: $118,711,000

 

[SuperDaniel]

This movie hasnt opened in a lot of countries yet. It will make its money back.

 

[Mysteryman]

Superman/Batman/Spider-Man are all big names that sell alone. Green Lantern is not in the same category as them is the thing. We've seen movies that do terrible that get sequels anyways (and this movie isn't terrible, IMO. It's just average.) If the budget wasn't so ridiculous, most would be saying it's making decent money.

I just want a sequel, gosh darnit. I'll be hoping for one until they confirm they're not working one.

Green Lantern at box office so far:
Domestic: $89,311,000 75.2%
+ Foreign: $29,400,000 24.8%


= Worldwide: $118,711,000

They will never say they are not doing a sequel.
A reboot is more likely.

 

[Octoberist]

This movie hasnt opened in a lot of countries yet. It will make its money back.

It has already, and the countries it hasn't opened up yet won't help that much.

 

[B]

Superman/Batman/Spider-Man are all big names that sell alone. Green Lantern is not in the same category as them is the thing. We've seen movies that do terrible that get sequels anyways (and this movie isn't terrible, IMO. It's just average.) If the budget wasn't so ridiculous, most would be saying it's making decent money.

I just want a sequel, gosh darnit. I'll be hoping for one until they confirm they're not working one.

Green Lantern at box office so far:
Domestic: $89,311,000 75.2%
+ Foreign: $29,400,000 24.8%


= Worldwide: $118,711,000

Well after clearing $119m in just 10 days, I'd expect them to make their budget back at the very least. It seems more like it could be 50/50 with a potential sequel, this is after all a character that isn't as mainstream popular like Superman, Batman & Spiderman that sell more or less on their name alone.. or will at least get 50% of people in seats with little to no publicity.

Green Lantern on paper looks like a good franchise that should/could have a good recipe for success with its aliens, superhero, action etc.. however it is just based on how well the public takes to it. I've not seen the film yet or read any reviews, but I get the impression that it didn't get outstanding reviews.. that might hurt a sequals chances. I mean if more than 50% of people think the film was bad & it didn't do so hot in theatres.. well that is usually that.. unless WB feel that the critics/fans were too hard on the film & that other conflicting heavy hitting films hurting the movie in the box office like PoC, Hangover 2, Transformers etc all lurking about still in cinemas.. doubtful & unlikely, but plausable.

Just depends what sort of potential WB see in the GL franchise. Considering Hulk (and Fantastic Four?) got/are getting a rebootquel/sequel & Ghost Rider is getting a sequel I don't see why GL shouldn't get one assuming it makes a similar amount of money $200m-$250m. Personally, I'd think that Green Lantern would have more potential inside it's universe than Ghost Rider does..

Time will tell.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Superman Returns seems to be the only false alarm. Batman and Spidey did have sequels planned after their respective last films, creative differences just stalled them.

IMO a SR's sequel with a lower budget was real, but the story of the superkid was so lame that they decided to reboot it.

 

[shogunrua]

Well after clearing $119m in just 10 days, I'd expect them to make their budget back at the very least. It seems more like it could be 50/50 with a potential sequel, this is after all a character that isn't as mainstream popular like Superman, Batman & Spiderman that sell more or less on their name alone.. or will at least get 50% of people in seats with little to no publicity.

Green Lantern on paper looks like a good franchise that should/could have a good recipe for success with its aliens, superhero, action etc.. however it is just based on how well the public takes to it. I've not seen the film yet or read any reviews, but I get the impression that it didn't get outstanding reviews.. that might hurt a sequals chances. I mean if more than 50% of people think the film was bad & it didn't do so hot in theatres.. well that is usually that.. unless WB feel that the critics/fans were too hard on the film & that other conflicting heavy hitting films hurting the movie in the box office like PoC, Hangover 2, Transformers etc all lurking about still in cinemas.. doubtful & unlikely, but plausable.

Just depends what sort of potential WB see in the GL franchise. Considering Hulk (and Fantastic Four?) got/are getting a rebootquel/sequel & Ghost Rider is getting a sequel I don't see why GL shouldn't get one assuming it makes a similar amount of money $200m-$250m. Personally, I'd think that Green Lantern would have more potential inside it's universe than Ghost Rider does..

Time will tell.

I agree with you in some points. Green Lantern has the potential to be a good franchise, bringing something really fresh to the genre, where the actual modus operandi seems to be "ground this in reality/gritty etc..." and Thor kind of showed that the public is not repulsed by more fantastic/sci-fi superheroes. So yeah, Green Lantern definitely could be a good franchise if handled well. I agree with you that as of now, summer movie season is getting more and more overcrowded, and certainly, opening before Cars 2 AND Transformers 3 must have hurt the movie. Thos basically had one more week end on his own without another major release, that might explain why the second week end drop for Thor wasn't as big as Green Lantern's drop.

I think that it's not the superhero genre movie that maybe people are getting tired of, but also the overcrowding of the summer movie season: "- hey guys want to go see Transformers 3 ? - Come on dude, we've already been to the movies last week". Too many movies, in such a short time, might keep people out of theaters. And with to many new movies, the ones who might have a better chance at being successfull are those who are already part of a franchise with an established fan base and hype built around the mere notion of being a sequel.

Which brings me to one thing I don't completely agree with you. Green Lantern not being as known as the general public as Superman/Batman/Spider-Man can't be the only reason, Iron Man was in the same situation in 2008 and it was successfull, same thing with Thor (albeit with not the same success). This is where marketing campaign is important, to build hype around a new property, to make people interested. And well with a first trailer that made the movie looked like an Iron Man knock off, that didn't start too well. Then they started to put the space stuff in the front scene which, according to you guys (because here it only comes out in August) doesn't seem to correctly reflect the overall movie. So no, Green Lantern not being known by the mainstream audience isn't the problem, because it could have been sold with a good marketing campaign.

I just don't agree with you when you bring the Ghost Rider sequel to the table to justify a sequel to Green Lantern. Sony is pulling a "Roger Corman Fantastic Four" with this one. If they don't produce a movie based on this property, they'll lose their rights (same thing for Daredevil and Fantastic Four). The driving force behind those sequel/reboots isn't just "we believe a sequel can be successfull" but more "better do ****** sequels/reboots than Marvel have their characters back, potentially making better movies with them and make lots of cash and make us look like A-holes" t: DC being owned by Warner Bros doesn't have this problem.

But I feel that Green Lantern should have a second chance with the audience, because according to the way you guys make it sound, in the middle of all its flaws, this movie still has some redeeming qualities, so I think there's still hope for a sequel. Sadly, Hollywood (especially with movies with that big of a budget) money is the driving force. Commercial success is more important than a critical one (How are you Scott Pilgrim ?), so right now, I think Hal Jordan is heading more towards the blackest night than to the brightest day

 

[DaveMoral]

I've said it before, but I think it warrants repeating, it's not just on the silver screen that WB is looking to franchise Green Lantern. Which indicates to me that they might not be as willing to drop the film franchise after this bad showing. They've got GL: The Animated Series premiering this fall, and from the likes of Bruce Timm no less, which is almost a guaranteed Emmy. It'll certainly be a success, with the only potential weak link I can see thus far being the choice to CGI Timm's usual retro style.

Box office figures are surely important, but might be less so if they see themselves not just recouping with DVD/Blu-Ray sales of this movie, but also the success of GL:TAS and it's merch and DVD sales(the first of which will probably be on shelves by Christmas time). And the currently announced formula of GL:TAS of "lots of space, very little Earth" could prove a well needed lesson to the approach taken for a GL2.

 

[DIRECTOR]

what really hurt GL's box office is not because it was an OK movie. People go to see OK movies, it's because the word of mouth and articles talking about how unsuccessful it is at the box office.

For example, you have Transformers 2 (crucified by critics/fans, I LIKED IT THOUGH?), but it did well at the box office, and why is that. Because it was making money and there weren't articles talking about the box office downfall, because there wasn't, so that tapped audiences curiosity. GL however, after the weekend, there are articles (even on Yahoo) about the box office not being much, so the general audiences reads that and thinks, "hey, maybe it's not a good movie since it's not making money, i will skipp it".

And that is why, i believe, there is a 66% drop in ticket sales on the second weekend.

 

[Donut]

I wonder if this will make it easier for Ryan to want to do Deadpool ?

 

[Dreadstar]

Green Lantern dropped 72 percent from its opening Friday with an estimated $6.0 million, pushing its total to $77 million.

Green Lantern placed third on Friday, finishing behind Cars 2's $25.7 million and Bad Teacher's $12.1 million.

 

[Sith Scotti]

I still think if it sells decent enough on dvd it will get another film . I5ts not just about making the money ijn theraters , its about toy sells , tv shows , comic books ..... Yes Martin Cambell is gone , and I would expect the budget & marketing to be cut , but I still think a sequel is as likley to happen as it is not .... They just need to hire a solid director and writer .

 

[moviedoors]

what really hurt GL's box office is not because it was an OK movie. People go to see OK movies, it's because the word of mouth and articles talking about how unsuccessful it is at the box office.

For example, you have Transformers 2 (crucified by critics/fans, I LIKED IT THOUGH?), but it did well at the box office, and why is that. Because it was making money and there weren't articles talking about the box office downfall, because there wasn't, so that tapped audiences curiosity. GL however, after the weekend, there are articles (even on Yahoo) about the box office not being much, so the general audiences reads that and thinks, "hey, maybe it's not a good movie since it's not making money, i will skipp it".

And that is why, i believe, there is a 66% drop in ticket sales on the second weekend.

Or maybe it dropped because audiences didn't like it. Transformers 2 got got bad reviews, but audiences (god help us all) liked it. I know this is a hard pill to swallow for some of you, but Green Lantern just isn't blowing up the general audience's skirt.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I still think if it sells decent enough on dvd it will get another film . I5ts not just about making the money ijn theraters , its about toy sells , tv shows , comic books ..... Yes Martin Cambell is gone , and I would expect the budget & marketing to be cut , but I still think a sequel is as likley to happen as it is not .... They just need to hire a solid director and writer .

You project DVD sales to be huge after movie theater BO wasn't?

 

[Sith Scotti]

You project DVD sales to be huge after movie theater BO wasn't?

I said decent . I wouldn't expect Batman Begins numbers You would be surprised how many people wait for dvds . I do think it will sell ok on dvd

 

[Poni_Boy]

I said decent . I wouldn't expect Batman Begins numbers You would be surprised how many people wait for dvds . I do think it will sell ok on dvd

This movie will definitely do well with it's home release, but I very much doubt it will do well enough to offset the BO damages. Two major factors:

1) Netflix, Redbox, Digital rentals

2) It has to make back it's home release distribution costs and marketing (which is a sizable figure in and of itself) before profits can be consolidated with BO performance

 

[Sith Scotti]

This movie will definitely do well with it's home release, but I very much doubt it will do well enough to offset the BO damages. Two major factors:

1) Netflix, Redbox, Digital rentals

2) It has to make back it's home release distribution costs and marketing (which is a sizable figure in and of itself) before profits can be consolidated with BO performance

It may not make a profit but wb may see enough potential to warrent a sequel . If it sells enough toys , the tv shows do good etccc . Ancillory market is as important as ticket as the box office .

 

[Mysteryman]

Okay, what were the DVD numbers for Batman Begins?

 

[Poni_Boy]

It may not make a profit but wb may see enough potential to warrent a sequel . If it sells enough toys , the tv shows do good etccc . Ancillory market is as important as ticket as the box office .

Honestly that really doesn't compute. Toy profits are split with Mattel and distributors/retailers. Merchandise is split with DC Direct/Noble Collection/etc and distributors/retailers.

If the film doesn't make it's money back a studio as business minded as WB won't take the risk.

 

[Docker2.0]

Or maybe it dropped because audiences didn't like it. Transformers 2 got got bad reviews, but audiences (god help us all) liked it. I know this is a hard pill to swallow for some of you, but Green Lantern just isn't blowing up the general audience's skirt.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Themorningstar was right, hence my sig.

 

[Sith Scotti]

I think you hit the nail on the head. Themorningstar was right, hence my sig.

Fierrst of all Im not a Green Lantern fanboy . Never really read the books but like the movie a lot , and I would consider myself a Batman fanboy but have no problen calling Batman & Robin a pile of horse *****