Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Docker2.0]

Meh, forget that. I'd rather each character get their own story and continuity. Figure out how to unite them for a JLA movie when they decide to do it.

Nolan doesn't have to worry about adhering to a shared universe, and no one else should.

Well they should just have one scene alluding to it and that's it. You don't have to have the entire movie devoted to it, a la IronMan2. Angela Bassett via Amanda Waller would have been perfect but noooooooooooooooooooooo they had to kill her off or whatever the freak happened in GL.

 

[HighFivingMF]

What possible reason would you have to think she died?

 

[Cain]

Meh, forget that. I'd rather each character get their own story and continuity. Figure out how to unite them for a JLA movie when they decide to do it.

Nolan doesn't have to worry about adhering to a shared universe, and no one else should.

Exactly.

 

[Cain]

WB's GL hits the 100 million mark today and looks to make 250 million WW which won't even cover the production costs of the film. Add in the 100 million in marketing and yikes!

An extremely generous number. It's looking more like $150 million worldwide at most when it's all said and done. Maybe just maybe $160 million; but now I'm the one being generous.

 

[The Sage]

Well they should just have one scene alluding to it and that's it. You don't have to have the entire movie devoted to it, a la IronMan2. Angela Bassett via Amanda Waller would have been perfect but noooooooooooooooooooooo they had to kill her off or whatever the freak happened in GL.

She didn't die.

A scene alluding to it is cool.

 

[super85]

Worldwide: $135,262,000 at the moment.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm


While the numbers are most likely causing WB a headache, it still is important to point out to fans that the film still hasn't open pretty much anywhere in Europe, or places like Australia etc. In some markets it opens in August and September.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Weekend estimates (boxoffice.com):

7 Green Lantern $6,270,000 -65% 3,280 -536 $$101,962,253

 

[merced]

Worldwide: $135,262,000 at the moment.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm


While the numbers are most likely causing WB a headache, it still is important to point out to fans that the film still hasn't open pretty much anywhere in Europe, or places like Australia etc. In some markets it opens in August and September.

Yes. Usually these films make a bit more overseas.

If 120 million is the US take that could mean 120 million plus overseas.

So a potential for a 240 - 250 million WW total when it's all done.

Not saying it will do that well just that there is still hope.

 

[Energist]

Well, one could make similar arguments with the Marvel films. I mean, where was Iron Man, Hulk, Captain America, or even Hawkeye, while the Destroyer was wreaking havoc in Thor? I don't think it's that much of a deal breaker. Just like in the individual comics, we can accept them having solo adventures and group adventures in the team comics. I think the benefits of a shared universe outweigh the negatives. And I think fans would be thrilled to see all these heroes interact and take on a really big threat.

Again, I haven't see Thor yet, but was the Destroyer portrayed as a world threat? Because Parallax certainly was. So when you take into consideration the level of the threat (world-destroyer) and level of power of the hero absent (able to speed across the continental United States in an instance), I think it is a justifiable question to ask where Superman was during Parallax's attack, supposing he were established as existing within the continuity of Green Lantern.

And as far as film goes, anyway, Superman has never been show to be in the league that GL is shown in this movie. He's either fighting people like himself, or thwarting land baron schemes and stopping missiles. Not giant monsters that threaten to consume the very souls of everyone on Earth.

He couldn't have helped out? Tried to evacuate people from the area, or perhaps even attempted to land a punch? Besides, Superman is different than Iron Man in the perception of most general audience's minds anyway, track record on film or not; comic book fans', too, for that matter. He's the biggest gun there is, who's capable of stopping world threats. Is there really a threat large enough to justify Superman's absence in Green Lantern while the fate of the entire Earth was at stake?

Meh, forget that. I'd rather each character get their own story and continuity. Figure out how to unite them for a JLA movie when they decide to do it.

Nolan doesn't have to worry about adhering to a shared universe, and no one else should.

Agreed. The shared universe concept in film is completely overrated. I want Warner Brothers to make good superhero films first and foremost. The rest is window dressing. Acknowledging Superman, Batman, Metropolis, Gotham, or freaking Central City in Green Lantern would not have changed my opinion of the film in the slightest. It still would have been an overcrowded, poorly scripted mess of a movie. It just would have happened to have featured someone saying the word "Gotham" in it. Big whoop.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Yes. Usually these films make a bit more overseas.

If 120 million is the US take that could mean 120 million plus overseas.

So a potential for a 240 - 250 million WW total when it's all done.

Not saying it will do that well just that there is still hope.

Most unlikely overseas number will not exceed the domestic number, not when TF3 and HP 7 part 2 running a muck soon.

And no, first time b-list superhero movie will not produce a big number overseas because of the "learning subject material" curve. This also what happens with 1st Iron Man. Thor is an exception perhaps because of the Marvel movie universe effect and one of first summer action movies out of the gate.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Weekend estimates (boxoffice.com):

7 Green Lantern $6,270,000 -65% 3,280 -536 $$101,962,253

So Deadline prediction is way off?

 

[Tony Stark]

Worldwide: $135,262,000 at the moment.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm


While the numbers are most likely causing WB a headache, it still is important to point out to fans that the film still hasn't open pretty much anywhere in Europe, or places like Australia etc. In some markets it opens in August and September.

The problem is, in alot of those markets it's going to open the same weekends as Captain America and Cowboys and Aliens.

I suspect the final tally will be somwhere in the 220-250M range WW.

WB looked so bad in this, they are out publically announcing a sequel, but if there were any weight to it, they'd be announcing schedules.

I almost feel bad for it, at this point, when a total piece of crap movie like Transformers 3 makes 162M in the first 6 days.

 

[DarKush]

MWF,

I can't say that the Destroyer was considered a world threat in the same way Parallax was. And the fight maybe wasn't as long as the one with Parallax. I don't want to give away too much more but Destroyer was playing on a much more scaled down field than Parallax. However he was enough of a threat to warrant the involvement of SHIELD and Hawkeye at least (who were both in the film and in the area) but neither showed up, and I didn't hear any grumblings from the moviegoers about them not showing up to help out or the other heroes not being on the scene. I didn't think about that either.

 

[HighFivingMF]

SHIELD did do battle with Destroyer... When he first showed up... Destroyer ****ed them up.

 

[merced]

The problem is, in alot of those markets it's going to open the same weekends as Captain America and Cowboys and Aliens.

I suspect the final tally will be somwhere in the 220-250M range WW.

WB looked so bad in this, they are out publically announcing a sequel, but if there were any weight to it, they'd be announcing schedules.

I almost feel bad for it, at this point, when a total piece of crap movie like Transformers 3 makes 162M in the first 6 days.

Box Office Guru is now saying 120 million domestic at best.

Normally it's 47/53 domestic/overseas in terms of the box office.

As an aside that advantage of the overseas market will only grow as new economic powers emerge in India, South America and China.

There are exceptions to this rule - SR and the first Ironman did better in the US.

However, assuming GL takes the normal 47/53 route, it would indicate a final WW total of 240 million or so.

BTW, Pirates numbers are 25% domestic and 75% overseas. It crossed 1 billion on Saturday thanks to the overseas market. It's numbers are not normal but over time the normal overseas box office share should grow to 60% plus. That will be a new factor the studios will have to factor in in the coming years as they develop their film projects.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

The problem is, in alot of those markets it's going to open the same weekends as Captain America and Cowboys and Aliens.

I suspect the final tally will be somwhere in the 220-250M range WW.

WB looked so bad in this, they are out publically announcing a sequel, but if there were any weight to it, they'd be announcing schedules.

I almost feel bad for it, at this point, when a total piece of crap movie like Transformers 3 makes 162M in the first 6 days.

At this point a sequel is simply impossible, and noone will be interested in a reboot. They'll bet on another "secondary" character (Flash, WW etc.).

 

[merced]

At this point a sequel is simply impossible, and noone will be interested in a reboot. They'll bet on another "secondary" character (Flash, WW etc.).

Dunno if we'll see another solo WB film in the next 5 years besides Batman.

I think WB and DCE have a lot to hash out.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that WW won't be the next solo film by WB. Female superheroes have no track record and there is a question as to whether they can draw blockbuster audiences in this particular genre. Sexist? Yes probably but I expect that will be a consideration at WB and DCE.

 

[Red Mask]

Commercials for GL have gone up over here in Australia. But It's still coming out in August. It's obvious they're trying very hard to get people to watch it. However Captain America and Harry Potter are still coming out this month of July. So I wonder how effective this campaign push will be. Kids will be back in school and the winter season is approaching the end. It seems the markets WB really depended on were the ones that have already shown their film. I don't know if they'll be counting on the Japanese audience to help win back their money.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Dunno if we'll see another solo WB film in the next 5 years besides Batman.

I think WB and DCE have a lot to hash out.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that WW won't be the next solo film by WB. Female superheroes have no track record and there is a question as to whether they can draw blockbuster audiences in this particular genre. Sexist? Yes probably but I expect that will be a consideration at WB and DCE.

After TDKR, maybe they can launch the Flash or WW.

If TDKR is a success, they should put "From the Studio which brought TDKR". TDKR is the bait.

But not GL. GL is persona non grata perhaps until 5 years.

 

[Dwarf Slayer]

Warner Bros definitely needs to proceed with a Justice League movie and forget about doing solo movies for now.

1. The general public only know about secondary DC characters through cartoons like Super Friends and Justice League.

2. People are tired of origin stories.

Start us off in the middle of a story. We don't need to know how the Justice League was formed and all of the characters' backgrounds. That stuff can be filled in later when it's essential to the plot. No secret identities. Don't worry about people being confused that Christian Bale isn't playing Batman. They can identify the character as Batman and that's enough. If certain characters prove popular, then give them a spin-off solo movie.

I don't know why people think it's so hard to do a JL movie. Forget that these characters are superheroes and just treat them like people. The super powers are only for the action scenes.

 

[merced]

Warner Bros definitely needs to proceed with a Justice League movie and forget about doing solo movies for now.

1. The general public only know about secondary DC characters through cartoons like Super Friends and Justice League.

2. People are tired of origin stories.

Start us off in the middle of a story. We don't need to know how the Justice League was formed and all of the characters' backgrounds. That stuff can be filled in later when it's essential to the plot. No secret identities. Don't worry about people being confused that Christian Bale isn't playing Batman. They can identify the character as Batman and that's enough. If certain characters prove popular, then give them a spin-off solo movie.

I don't know why people think it's so hard to do a JL movie. Forget that these characters are superheroes and just treat them like people. The super powers are only for the action scenes.

After TDKR Bale will be gone and there will be a new Batman. Nolan also will be gone.

Maybe the deal will be the new Batman actor is signed for 3 Batman films and a JL film. Who knows?

Really I don't think this is going to be an issue.

It's hard to do a JL in the sense that to do it right you need to spend a whole lot of money. WB may rightfully be gun-shy on that after GL.

You also need an incredible cast. Not just the new Batman but who do you cast as Flash, GL, WW and one or two others.

The chemistry among the actors has to be off the charts and that ain't easy to do.

 

[Dwarf Slayer]

After TDKR Bale will be gone and there will be a new Batman. Nolan also will be gone.

Maybe the deal will be the new Batman actor is signed for 3 Batman films and a JL film. Who knows?

Really I don't think this is going to be an issue.

It's hard to do a JL in the sense that to do it right you need to spend a whole lot of money. WB may rightfully be gun-shy on that after GL.

You also need an incredible cast. Not just the new Batman but who do you cast as Flash, GL, WW and one or two others.

The chemistry among the actors has to be off the charts and that ain't easy to do.

Nolan won't be gone after TDKR, he'll be producing the reboot.

It's not super expensive to do a JL movie. Not anymore than it would be to do any other modern blockbuster.

Green Lantern was complete failure BECAUSE of the Warner Bros. They approved the awful script, they hired a director who wasn't competent with both sci-fi and CGI, and they hired Sony Imageworks.

 

[merced]

Nolan won't be gone after TDKR, he'll be producing the reboot.

It's not super expensive to do a JL movie. Not anymore than it would be to do any other modern blockbuster.

Green Lantern was complete failure BECAUSE of the Warner Bros. They approved the awful script, they hired a director who wasn't competent with both sci-fi and CGI, and they hired Sony Imageworks.

It's rumored the Avengers budget is/will be huge.

WB basically has to match and more likely exceed that. We are talking north of 200 million. Lots more than GL.

Nolan's status is, to take your point, unsure at this point. But for WB to continue wit him he'd have to accept the demand that the new Batman actor be in at least one JL film.

It will take magic. A perfect cast of the new Batman and perfect casts for Flash, WW, GL and the one or two others who will be in the film.

Don't get me wrong. I think WB needs to leverage Batman through a JL film to launch these other characters.

It can be done. It will take time.

At the earliest I am seeing a JL in 2014. And that may be optimistic.

 

[Energist]

MWF,

I can't say that the Destroyer was considered a world threat in the same way Parallax was. And the fight maybe wasn't as long as the one with Parallax. I don't want to give away too much more but Destroyer was playing on a much more scaled down field than Parallax. However he was enough of a threat to warrant the involvement of SHIELD and Hawkeye at least (who were both in the film and in the area) but neither showed up, and I didn't hear any grumblings from the moviegoers about them not showing up to help out or the other heroes not being on the scene. I didn't think about that either.

Okay, thanks for that description (as well as going out of your way not to spoil anything).

To everyone I've been debating on this point, I hope I'm not coming off as argumentative. I'm just trying to give hypotheticals for why I feel a united movie-verse can be just as detrimental to a film as it can be beneficial.

Warner Bros definitely needs to proceed with a Justice League movie and forget about doing solo movies for now.

1. The general public only know about secondary DC characters through cartoons like Super Friends and Justice League.

2. People are tired of origin stories.

Start us off in the middle of a story. We don't need to know how the Justice League was formed and all of the characters' backgrounds. That stuff can be filled in later when it's essential to the plot. No secret identities. Don't worry about people being confused that Christian Bale isn't playing Batman. They can identify the character as Batman and that's enough. If certain characters prove popular, then give them a spin-off solo movie.

I don't know why people think it's so hard to do a JL movie. Forget that these characters are superheroes and just treat them like people. The super powers are only for the action scenes.

This is pretty much where I stand on the entire matter, too. And I see an added benefit to this, that being if solo pictures are actually spun out of a Justice League of America film, as opposed to the other way around, Warner Brothers won't be perceived by the general public as trying to copy what Marvel is doing/has done.

I personally believe this is definitely the way for them to go, especially after Green Lantern's lackluster performance.

 

[chiefchirpa]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3200&p=.htm

Even 2 months old Thor beat GL in WW intake...