Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[dnno1]

Just found this thread via a google search and decided to join the forums. I work in a career position at a movie theatre, and am big on following box office numbers, especially superhero ones.

My two cents:

OW - 55Mil
Domestic - 180Mil
Foreign - 240Mil
WW Total - 420Mil

Enough to green-light a sequel and subsequent trilogy, as well as paving the way for other future DC Superhero's such as the Flash to hit the silver screen. But not obviously as big as recent Batman Movies, Iron Man, and likely to fall short of Captain America, which will be the summer's biggest SuperHero movie.

What are you basing this on? Since you supposedly have an inside on that end of the business, you should certainly have a rational basis for your numbers right?

 

[dnno1]

From what I have been reading around the Internet, there have been advance ticket sales for "Green Lantern" since May 27th of this year. I wonder how that has been going and if it would be possible to make a projection on the OW box office gross from that information?

 

[Weadazoid]

From what I have been reading around the Internet, there have been advance ticket sales for "Green Lantern" since May 27th of this year. I wonder how that has been going and if it would be possible to make a projection on the OW box office gross from that information?

Box Office mojo normally anounces that advanced sales are ....tracking a certain way if they can decipher anything from it

 

[Tony Stark]

I just hope it makes what it's currently tracking at. Anything above that is icing on the cake. This has been a bad summer for films under performing their tracking numbers. Only Thor and Fast Five came in as expected.

 

[Mysteryman]

I just hope it makes what it's currently tracking at. Anything above that is icing on the cake. This has been a bad summer for films under performing their tracking numbers. Only Thor and Fast Five came in as expected.

Do you know what it is currently tracking at?
I have been trying to find out.

 

[BigThor]

If GL has a bad script it will have something in common with Thor.

Thor had a weak script?

 

[SurfinBird]

What are you basing this on? Since you supposedly have an inside on that end of the business, you should certainly have a rational basis for your numbers right?

Just personal observation based on what I see everyday working in the movie industry. If the Green Lantern is well received though, I would give room for it to do a bit better than what I projected, somewhere over the 200million domestic mark. But this summer is crowded full of blockbusters, and with Transformers 3 coming out two weeks later, The Green Lantern is going to have to perform very well in it's opening if it has any chance to break the 200 million mark.

 

[The Morningstar]

Well it has a 3D Pixar movie coming out the week after it. Which will take away a lot of it's 3D screens. Then TF3 will come in a basically steal the rest of the 3D screens away.

 

[KangConquers]

What is the film currently tracking at?

 

[DieSmiling]

I'm hopeful to this movie, as I know my son is very much looking forward to it, as GL is is favorite DC hero.

However, this is a troubling sign. A movie that hasn't had a critic screening a week before release is a huge red flag. It's usually when a studio will shield the film from early reviews, so they don't have a huge drop off in numbers from what their internal tracking shows.

I don't know that this is the case with GL, but this is never a good sign. there should at least be a handful of reviews by now.

I thought there had been screenings but there was an embargo on them until Sunday, or whatever?

 

[Weadazoid]

Well.... tomarrow is Sunday

 

[Tony Stark]

I thought there had been screenings but there was an embargo on them until Sunday, or whatever?

Most film "embargos" are selectively enforced by the studio. Usually it's a bad sign when you see them enforcing it. For Fast Five and Thor it's a hard comparison because they were released internationally, so the embargo could not be enforced.

Warner gets early copies of the reviews, because they have to parse them for advertising, so they know if the reviews will be overall positive or not.

Again, let me be clear, this is just a bad feeling on my part. The reviews could be great for all I know. If they are, then it's stupid for Warner to enforce the embargo.

Well know soon enough anyway.

 

[DieSmiling]

Most film "embargos" are selectively enforced by the studio. Usually it's a bad sign when you see them enforcing it. For Fast Five and Thor it's a hard comparison because they were released internationally, so the embargo could not be enforced.

Warner gets early copies of the reviews, because they have to parse them for advertising, so they know if the reviews will be overall positive or not.

Again, let me be clear, this is just a bad feeling on my part. The reviews could be great for all I know. If they are, then it's stupid for Warner to enforce the embargo.

Well know soon enough anyway.

I'd be worried if the embargo wasn't lifted until the day of or before the release. I'm not overly worried about this (we should start to see reviews popping up tomorrow)... But I understand your concern.

Hopefully the reviews are positive.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

I hope that some reviews pop up before 3pm Eastern time tomorrow.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd be worried if the embargo wasn't lifted until the day of or before the release. I'm not overly worried about this (we should start to see reviews popping up tomorrow)... But I understand your concern.

Hopefully the reviews are positive.

True that's a sign when you know the movie is going to suck. The last movie that I can remember doing that was Aeon Flux.

 

[Tony Stark]

What is the film currently tracking at?

Seems like most predictions are coming in the mid to high 50's. That seems a little low for me. I figure it would do at least what Thor did opening week with the 3D.

I think people are more apt to see GL in 3D than they were for Thor, where half the movie is set in the New Mexico desert.

 

[dnno1]

Just personal observation based on what I see everyday working in the movie industry. If the Green Lantern is well received though, I would give room for it to do a bit better than what I projected, somewhere over the 200million domestic mark. But this summer is crowded full of blockbusters, and with Transformers 3 coming out two weeks later, The Green Lantern is going to have to perform very well in it's opening if it has any chance to break the 200 million mark.

There were a number of films hat did not have a big opening weekend by had a very long run with a consistent weekly box office returns. If "Green Lantern" was truly received like any of the Star Wars films were and averaged say $14 million a week after a good opening weekend, it could make more than a billion dollars.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thor had a weak script?

With the exception of the acting I thought that Thor had a weak everything.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Thor was awesome.

 

[kedrell]

Thor did well enough with what it had to work with. Sure, it wasn't a mind-blowing script but then it didn't need to be. In fact, that might have hurt it if it had tried that given how absurd the inherent premise was. GL is much the same way.

 

[BigThor]

With the exception of the acting I thought that Thor had a weak everything.

My bad, I forgot who I was speaking with t:.

Thor did well enough with what it had to work with. Sure, it wasn't a mind-blowing script but then it didn't need to be. In fact, that might have hurt it if it had tried that given how absurd the inherent premise was. GL is much the same way.

Bingo

 

[SatEL]

Thor was perfection, awesome movie from start to finish.

 

[jmc]

Thor played not to lose rather than to win. The whole movie was walking on eggs shells.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Thor had a weak script?

No. It had an Oscar worthy script that would make Aaron Sorkin blush; from the scribes of Cody Banks.

 

[The Morningstar]

There were a number of films hat did not have a big opening weekend by had a very long run with a consistent weekly box office returns. If "Green Lantern" was truly received like any of the Star Wars films were and averaged say $14 million a week after a good opening weekend, it could make more than a billion dollars.

GL will not be making Star Wars numbers or getting anywhere near a billion dollars. Don't be silly.

Thor played not to lose rather than to win. The whole movie was walking on eggs shells.

GL will be doing the same. Both of them are "far out" concepts that are pretty hard sells. So the story structure has to be formulaic.

Anyone expecting GL to be anything other than a formulaic superhero movie is kidding themselves. Sure, the "dressing", like Thor, will be unique and amazing. But the structure of the stories, the arc of the main character, will just be cliche.

Guy stars off as a bit of a *****e, gets powers/loses powers, learns how to be a better person, gets the girl, saves the day.