Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[JKKS085]

I can see a marginal increase. Not every sequel does better at the box office regardless of quality or popularity of the first instalment. Also the USD is much stronger against foreign currencies in 2017 than it was in 2014 (about 25% against the euro for instance) which should impact its overseas numbers negatively. I don't know how the competition (King Arthur, Alien Covenant) stacks up against TMNT (2014), but I feel like Vol. 2 comes out in a more competitive spot. 800/900M is where I think it has the potential to end.

 

[legendkillin]

I believe it will be the 1st non Iron Man feature to get a billion.

 

[samsnee]

What did the first one do in China? That's your ticket to a billion.

 

[Starcat]

I think it will do over a billion.

 

[StormC]

I'm surprised how confident people are in the billion for this film. I think 900 million is the absolute ceiling for this movie, more realistically falling in the 800-850 range. GOTG made so much at the time in part because of how novel and fresh it was when it came out; this is going to be, well, Volume 2 of that.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

 

[GeckoMoria]

Keep them in check. marvel is grossing a billion every year since 2012 with the exception of 2014. This year it will be either Guardians or Spider-man. It's definitely likely.

 

[Panacea]

I'm surprised how confident people are in the billion for this film. I think 900 million is the absolute ceiling for this movie, more realistically falling in the 800-850 range. GOTG made so much at the time in part because of how novel and fresh it was when it came out; this is going to be, well, Volume 2 of that.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

Being unheard of is not an advantage. Aside from The Avengers, which was a cinematic event unlike any before it, Marvel sequels always make more money than their predecessors. Thor: The Dark World made nearly $200m more than Thor, Captain American: The Winter Soldier made over $300m more than Captain America: The First Avenger, etc. I would be amazed if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 didn't make a fair bit more than the first one, whether that means over a billion is another matter of course, but still.

 

[Panacea]

Keep them in check. marvel is grossing a billion every year since 2012 with the exception of 2014. This year it will be either Guardians or Spider-man. It's definitely likely.

Marvel won't make money from Spider-Man: Homecoming though, Sony will.

 

[Darepool]

Good point about currency, we never consider things like that when making predictions. That is definitely a factor.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I'm surprised how confident people are in the billion for this film. I think 900 million is the absolute ceiling for this movie, more realistically falling in the 800-850 range. GOTG made so much at the time in part because of how novel and fresh it was when it came out; this is going to be, well, Volume 2 of that.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

GOTG2 will make OVER a billion.

 

[InCali]

Being unheard of is not an advantage. Aside from The Avengers, which was a cinematic event unlike any before it, Marvel sequels always make more money than their predecessors. Thor: The Dark World made nearly $200m more than Thor, Captain American: The Winter Soldier made over $300m more than Captain America: The First Avenger, etc. I would be amazed if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 didn't make a fair bit more than the first one, whether that means over a billion is another matter of course, but still.

Yeah, but Thor and CA had the Avengers effect going for them. Don't get me wrong, I think GotG 2 will outperform the first one (given it's of similar quality), but 1B is pretty steep. I seem to recall that it didn't do that well in China in part because the humor didn't translate well (Nothing goes over my head. My reflexes are too fast......).

There's a LOT of goodwill for the sequel so if it's good......

 

[JKKS085]

Being unheard of is not an advantage. Aside from The Avengers, which was a cinematic event unlike any before it, Marvel sequels always make more money than their predecessors. Thor: The Dark World made nearly $200m more than Thor, Captain American: The Winter Soldier made over $300m more than Captain America: The First Avenger, etc. I would be amazed if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 didn't make a fair bit more than the first one, whether that means over a billion is another matter of course, but still.

Neither Thor nor Captain America The First Avenger where breakout hits. They were decent performers in regards to Marvel's expectations and their respective budgets but that's about it really. Guardians of The Galaxy was a breakout hit and is still to this day Marvel's highest grossing origin story.
The bump between Cap and Thor's solos and their sequels has also lot to do with The Avengers and the resulting exposure the characters got in an event movie. There's nothing similar going on with GOTG Vol.2.

The thing is, in my opinion, the likeliest outcome is something in the range of the Iron Man 2 bump. I could be wrong and I am not saying that the movie has no chance at a billion, but all things considered I would be (really) surprised if it even passes 900M. 830/850 millions would be my guess at the moment. Maybe the reviews will change that.

 

[InCali]

Neither Thor nor Captain America The First Avenger where breakout hits. They were decent performers in regards to Marvel's expectations and their respective budgets but that's about it really. Guardians of The Galaxy was a breakout hit and is still to this day Marvel's highest grossing origin story.
The bump between Cap and Thor's solos and their sequels has also lot to do with The Avengers and the resulting exposure the characters got in an event movie. There's nothing similar going on with GOTG Vol.2.

The thing is, in my opinion, the likeliest outcome is something in the range of the Iron Man 2 bump. I could be wrong and I am not saying that the movie has no chance at a billion, but all things considered I would be (really) surprised if it even passes 900M. 830/850 millions would be my guess at the moment. Maybe the reviews will change that.

Also, I think people tend to forget how very well GotG was received by the general public and what a freak it was with regard to it's legs. It had a DOM multiplier of over 3.5 which is CRAZY for a movie that opened to an almost 100M weekend.

 

[Zarex]

Initial BO estimates are in for GOTG Vol 2. BO.com's Long Range Forecast estimates $160 OW/$400 DOM.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-guardians-galaxy-vol-2/

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Yeah, but Thor and CA had the Avengers effect going for them. Don't get me wrong, I think GotG 2 will outperform the first one (given it's of similar quality), but 1B is pretty steep. I seem to recall that it didn't do that well in China in part because the humor didn't translate well (Nothing goes over my head. My reflexes are too fast......).

There's a LOT of goodwill for the sequel so if it's good......

Hopefully, Disney will make sure the translations don't have errors this time.

 

[InCali]

Initial BO estimates are in for GOTG Vol 2. BO.com's Long Range Forecast estimates $160 OW/$400 DOM.

Jaw drops......

 

[InCali]

Hopefully, Disney will make sure the translations don't have errors this time.

It's not so much errors as it is the colloquialisms that work in one language only. I don't speak Chinese....my son does so maybe I'll ask him...but I'll bet "That went over my head" in Chinese means, well, something actually went above your head and doesn't mean you missed a point someone was trying to make.

It's much "better" to translate a $#!tFormers movie because the dialogue is so insanely stupid, simple, and impossible to not understand. I mean how can you miss when the dialogue by a giant, angry robot is "I'll kill you."

 

[Darepool]

It's not so much errors as it is the colloquialisms that work in one language only. I don't speak Chinese....my son does so maybe I'll ask him...but I'll bet "That went over my head" in Chinese means, well, something actually went above your head and doesn't mean you missed a point someone was trying to make.

It's much "better" to translate a $#!tFormers movie because the dialogue is so insanely stupid, simple, and impossible to not understand. I mean how can you miss when the dialogue by a giant, angry robot is "I'll kill you."

Perhaps a better translator who translates the 'joke' (or gives it context) for a Chinese audience instead of doing a literal translation is what's needed. It may be lost in translation either way, just a thought. Both Whedon's Avengers films went over really well.

 

[jr24tw]

That's usually why when you live in a country that constantly dubs movies, they adjust it to the country and it's colloquialisms. So whatever 'went over my head' means in Chinese, that should have been what the character said. Instead of a literal translation.

I hate dub and I live in a country where they dub everything. Which is bad in many ways.

 

[kguillou]

Two words. Baby Groot. Kids and parents will flock to this movie in droves because of this factor alone. Its making a billion.

 

[InCali]

Perhaps a better translator who translates the 'joke' (or gives it context) for a Chinese audience instead of doing a literal translation is what's needed. It may be lost in translation either way, just a thought. Both Whedon's Avengers films went over really well.

Yeah. Good point. It's like reading instructions (which I generally don't need) for some tech gizmo. I read the instruction and I feel like writing the manufacturer with a letter starting with "Dude, WT+F are you talking about?". Either that or "Hire me." Except I only speak Spanish (not very well anymore unfortunately) and English.

 

[InCali]

Two words. Baby Groot. Kids and parents will flock to this movie in droves because of this factor alone. Its making a billion.

I don't know about 1B, but people are going Kong$#!t over Baby Groot. Him and Rocket together are a YUGE draw. Remember when no one wanted to see a movie about a talking tree (with apologies to my dear Professor Tolkien) and a Raccoon?

Those were the days my friend......

Also....Treebeard was NOT a tree.....but I suppose Groot isn't either.

Rocket and Groot; iconic CBM characters.....LOL.

I wonder if Groot is going to grow like a weed. hahahaha

 

[Lilbaz]

I think it will make $1bn. It appeals to all ages. It is a safe family film, that also appeals to adults. it has enough action for the boys and enough cuteness and comedy for the girls.

 

[Chesterfield]

I'm being EXTREMELY conservative and going with $800 to $900 Million.