Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[GeckoMoria]

Too be fair, that was the first impressions for BvS as well.

Ummm no, not even close. Guardians had reactions from professional critics in a press screening. BvS had reactions from fans who were just grateful to get a free screening. Fans are the most unreliable measure for reactions. They praise everything from Green Lantern to fan4stic. When critics actually saw BvS they panned it.

 

[TheVileOne]

It still doesn't guarantee the film will make a billion yet.

 

[GeckoMoria]

It still doesn't guarantee the film will make a billion yet.

I never said it does. You said that bvS had a 160+ opening weekend and it didn't even break 900 and i countered that with the fact that BvS was panned and Guardians won't be. It already starts with a better chance from the getgo. Chance being the keyword. I never said it's locked.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ummm no, not even close. Guardians had reactions from professional critics in a press screening. BvS had reactions from fans who were just grateful to get a free screening. Fans are the most unreliable measure for reactions. They praise everything from Green Lantern to fan4stic. When critics actually saw BvS they panned it.

Oh, so now you get to decide which reaction counts. Okay. All early twitter reaction is useless. Because it is a small amount of people in a very positive environment.

And fans and the general audiences in general are the most reliable. Because it is the fans in the end that make a movie a success or not.

 

[ssj wolverine]

850 - 900 million. I think the film will be great but it won't touch the rarified air of movies hitting 1B. No reason behind it just an opinion.

 

[GeckoMoria]

Oh, so now you get to decide which reaction counts. Okay. All early twitter reaction is useless. Because it is a small amount of people in a very positive environment.

And fans and the general audiences in general are the most reliable. Because it is the fans in the end that make a movie a success or not.

I don't need to decide. it's a widely accepted and known fact that fan reaction on twitter before the embargo are useless since they always praise the film no matter the quality. Critics tweet refelct their reivews that will be posted after the embargo. And no, it's not a positive enviroment. There are plenty of critics tweets that are not favorable to the film they saw at the press screening. If reviewers liked it something, it's because they liked it not because they are biased. Fans are biased.

So when i see fan4stic twitter reactions like "a masterpiece" or " it does the property justice" and then i see a professional reviewer saying it's crap which one is more reliable? So, no not early twitter reactions are useless since critics that liked the film and tweeted about it will give it positive reviews.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't need to decide. it's a widely accepted and known fact that fan reaction on twitter before the embargo are useless since they always praise the film no matter the quality. Critics tweet refelct their reivews that will be posted after the embargo. And no, it's not a positive enviroment. There are plenty of critics tweets that are not favorable to the film they saw at the press screening. If reviewers liked it something, it's because they liked it not because they are biased. Fans are biased.

So when i see fan4stic twitter reactions like "a masterpiece" or " it does the property justice" and then i see a professional reviewer saying it's crap which one is more reliable? So, no not early twitter reactions are useless since critics that liked the film and tweeted about it will give it positive reviews.

So are critics. Because they make up a very small percentage of those who actually review the movie.

Though you just contradicted yourself. Why would you expect it to get a positive reception, if there were plenty of critics who didn't like it at the press screening?

 

[TheVileOne]

I never said it does. You said that bvS had a 160+ opening weekend and it didn't even break 900 and i countered that with the fact that BvS was panned and Guardians won't be. It already starts with a better chance from the getgo. Chance being the keyword. I never said it's locked.

My point still stands.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Yeah... it's making a billion and then some.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah... it's making a billion and then some.

I definitely think it will.

 

[writer0327]

Forget the fact that the original GOTG is wildly popular, probably right there with Iron Man and Captain America, who also have had $1B films to their credit. But let's add the timing of the release, which some have already pointed out, the marketing, which has been excellent, and the one factor that is sure to bring people of all ages into the theaters to see this film....

Baby Groot.

 

[InCali]

You doubted me when I said the first one would either get very close to a billion or possibly hit it. This will break a billion.

Well, I'll take that "very close to a billion" difference, come to Miami, fix you up with your own company, head back to Cali, and pocket the difference.

Hope all is good.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, love the first one, but it was well off a billion. Over 227m away is not "close".

 

[InCali]

Yeah, love the first one, but it was well off a billion. Over 227m away is not "close".

Yeah....DeeJ is always talkin caca, but I voted 1B plus on this one too. The first one DID, however, WAAAAY over perform and I always felt this was one of those fairly rare cases where the sequel outdoes the original. The goodwill was so easy to see. I think some of us forget just how great of a run it had. Starting out at 90M+ (and the momentum was building) and ending up over 330M DOM is very, very unusual.

Hope all's well with you too.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah....DeeJ is always talkin caca, but I voted 1B plus on this one too. The first one DID, however, WAAAAY over perform and I always felt this was one of those fairly rare cases where the sequel outdoes the original. The goodwill was so easy to see. I think some of us forget just how great of a run it had. Starting out at 90M+ (and the momentum was building) and ending up over 330M DOM is very, very unusual.

Hope all's well with you too.

The thing is, sequels usually do outdo the first film when there is obvious room to these days. Especially with how important big opening are these days. This isn't TLJ having to get to 2bil or the AoU trying to get to 1.5bil. 773m for a sequel to a beloved Marvel flick is rather easy to top.

 

[TheVileOne]

It will really just depend on reviews and audience reception if it makes it to a billion. Civil War, while being a Captain America sequel, had a jam-packed cast and also the new version of Spider-Man.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It will really just depend on reviews and audience reception if it makes it to a billion. Civil War, while being a Captain America sequel, had a jam-packed cast and also the new version of Spider-Man.

Honestly, I don't think it needs reviews on par with the first movie to get there. Its going to open stateside in such a way that it will past the original through the head start it gets. If it gets to 400m stateside, 600m overseas is definitely doable.

 

[TheVileOne]

Honestly, I don't think it needs reviews on par with the first movie to get there. Its going to open stateside in such a way that it will past the original through the head start it gets. If it gets to 400m stateside, 600m overseas is definitely doable.

I'd say it definitely has a good shot of doing it.

 

[InCali]

The thing is, sequels usually do outdo the first film when there is obvious room to these days. Especially with how important big opening are these days. This isn't TLJ having to get to 2bil or the AoU trying to get to 1.5bil. 773m for a sequel to a beloved Marvel flick is rather easy to top.

It will really just depend on reviews and audience reception if it makes it to a billion. Civil War, while being a Captain America sequel, had a jam-packed cast and also the new version of Spider-Man.

I don't think any of us are in disagreement.

And don't forget that one of the characters in the jam packed cast of CW was IM. Before 2008, he was almost an afterthought. The same could be said for Starlord/GotG. The real question is whether or not Marvel can continue to elevate their characters.

 

[TheVileOne]

Doubting Marvel is probably a mistake at this point. Especially after getting hits out of Doctor Strange and Ant-Man.

 

[InCali]

Doubting Marvel is probably a mistake at this point. Especially after getting hits out of Doctor Strange and Ant-Man.

Yup. And, the movie that portended those successes was GotG. It was the first movie that wasn't one of the big 4 (IM, Thor, CA, Hulk) put out by MCU and it hit gold. A lot of people at the time said no one cared about a raccoon or a talking tree and that it was a big risk, but, a few years later, here we are....

In retrospect, GotG set the table for a whole new generation of MCU characters. The marketing job (not to mention script, direction, etc.) they did on that movie was pitch perfect (ughhhhh.....can't believe I used that phrase).

 

[Vartha]

Well HERE, many people MY age and older, LOVED Thor Darkworld. It was in the theaters HERE until the Bluray came out.
I would hope, with how popular Gotg was with music and when Pete is from, GotG 2 will be as popular with my age group as TDW was.
I mean with who is IN the film alone many people my age will want to see those actors that haven't been in TV spots or trailers yet

 

[Adder]

I don't need to decide. it's a widely accepted and known fact that fan reaction on twitter before the embargo are useless since they always praise the film no matter the quality. Critics tweet refelct their reivews that will be posted after the embargo. And no, it's not a positive enviroment. There are plenty of critics tweets that are not favorable to the film they saw at the press screening. If reviewers liked it something, it's because they liked it not because they are biased. Fans are biased.

So when i see fan4stic twitter reactions like "a masterpiece" or " it does the property justice" and then i see a professional reviewer saying it's crap which one is more reliable? So, no not early twitter reactions are useless since critics that liked the film and tweeted about it will give it positive reviews.

This. Fan reactions don't count.

 

[GeckoMoria]

So are critics. Because they make up a very small percentage of those who actually review the movie.

Though you just contradicted yourself. Why would you expect it to get a positive reception, if there were plenty of critics who didn't like it at the press screening?

I never contradicted myself. When i said plenty of negative tweets i was talking generally about movies, not about Vol 2. There hasn't been an outright negative tweet about Vol 2 and i have checked over 40 critics reactions. Sure, it's a small sample that's always the amount of tweets from press screenings. No company invites all 250 critics that will review this movie. But even within hat percentage when all of them agree the movie is good, it will be well-received. I don't know if it's gonna be acclaimed but it will be at least certified fresh.

This isn't my first press screening amigo...

 

[Flint Marko]

Taking this to the appropriate thread...

Making tiny profits are failures on these movies. It has always been that way. But this thread is about reviews, so we should probably talk it to the box office thread.

Then what do you call it when a movie loses money? Because that's a failure by any measure and a movie making less money than you originally wanted is a disappointment, particularly when the movies in question have merchandising money and home media sales to fall back on. This is pretty cut and dried. Your use of BvS kind of proves my point as it wasn't anywhere near a failure from a strictly financial standpoint.