Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[LoganPool]

I don't understand anyone's logic that doesn't think it'll hit a billion. It would have to take a nose-dive similar to BvS for it not to, and I don't see that happening.

 

[Zarex]

Something interesting for 2016 I've thought about. I know not all things are equal

But is it fair that Suicide Squad was greatly maligned and it still made over $300 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange, highly praised, but made less domestically and worldwide than Suicide Squad. Doctor Strange is seen as a greater hit, but the budget for Doctor Strange was only reportedly $10 million lower.

Do reviews and online reception color the "Success/Failure" of a film too much? I wonder what everyone else thinks.

According to Deadline, Suicide Squad was more profitable than Mister Doctor, putting an additional $35.8 million into the hands of Time Warner investors. But because both are comic book films they are judged as franchise launchers as much as they are stand alone entries. The critical response to Strange puts a better light on DS 2 (Doctor Strange: Midnight Suns?) while the relatively poor response to Suicide Squad has folks wondering if the sequel will crater at the BO.

A recent example of this is the sequel to TMNT. The first Bay film received a poor critical response but was financially successful. It even beat out GOTG in week 2! But the poor quality of the film harmed the anticipation for the sequel, which ended the series despite being better received than its predecessor.

 

[Ultra Nolanite]

I don't understand anyone's logic that doesn't think it'll hit a billion. It would have to take a nose-dive similar to BvS for it not to, and I don't see that happening.

I don't think this one is as repeat view friendly as the first. I saw the first up to 3 times in the cinema but I have no desire whatsoever to see this one again any time soon so it could still take that nosedive.

 

[iEquinox]

I don't think this one is as repeat view friendly as the first. I saw the first up to 3 times in the cinema but I have no desire whatsoever to see this one again any time soon so it could still take that nosedive.

You have to look at the overall reception, not just your personal view. It doesn't really matter if you're personally going to watch it again or not; that would add what, 10/20 dollars? The overall critical reception for this has been very good. That usually indicates good WOM.

There's no way this takes a nose-dive like BvS did. BvS made over half of its domestic total in the opening weekend. That's pretty rare, even for a movie with bad critical reception. GotG will have better legs than BvS, at this point it's pretty much a statistical impossibility for it to nose-dive like BvS did.

We'll have to wait for the opening weekend numbers before we can start making very confident predictions about the final gross, but if tracking holds up it should definitely have a shot at making 1B. The first international numbers we got yesterday are also reason to be optimistic.

 

[Ultra Nolanite]

You have to look at the overall reception, not just your personal view. It doesn't really matter if you're personally going to watch it again or not; that would add what, 10/20 dollars? The overall critical reception for this has been very good. That usually indicates good WOM.

There's no way this takes a nose-dive like BvS did. BvS made over half of its domestic total in the opening weekend. That's pretty rare, even for a movie with bad critical reception. GotG will have better legs than BvS, at this point it's pretty much a statistical impossibility for it to nose-dive like BvS did.

We'll have to wait for the opening weekend numbers before we can start making very confident predictions about the final gross, but if tracking holds up it should definitely have a shot at making 1B. The first international numbers we got yesterday are also reason to be optimistic.

You think I'm talking about MY 10 euros affecting sales? That I'm the ONLY guy in the world that won't watch it multiple times because I didn't like it as much?
I'm using my self as a sample.

Overall perception is that this one does not hold a candle to the first. I watched the first several times. If more people think that it's not as good as the first and don't feel they need to see it multiple times then that will affect sales.

Can I prove any of this? nope. Is there precedent? Most definitely.

Avengers 2 made a 100 million less than Avengers 1. I saw Avengers 1 in the cinema 4 or 5 times and told all my friends that were on the fence about it to also watch it 4 or 5 times and they did most likely.

Avengers 2 I saw once and shrugged, never spoke about it to anyone and it made less money because I and a bunch of other folks decided to not give it their 10 euros 4-5 times this time around.

Why would you think I'm talking just about myself in that way?

AoU Didn't outgross the first, so it's not a sure thing that GotG2 will outgross GotG1

 

[Chesterfield]

Darthskywalker is actually right with his reasoning here. Irrespective of GoTg's recent cultural significance, Vol.2 is positioned to be aiming jo join the $Billion club. If it gets there or thereabouts is something we obviously have to wait and see but considering how much the first made and the franchise's ever growing brand; coupled with the fact that Doctor Strange and Logan both made over $600 million; the former making almost $700million, it's disingenuous to say that Vol.2 isn't targeting that $Billion milestone.

If it doesn't hit a Billion but makes more than the first, I wouldn't call it a failure but rather a disappointing success that Disney/Marvel can still be proud of; but in any case, yes, believe this movie is definitely made to target that $Billion.

 

[GeckoMoria]

You think I'm talking about MY 10 euros affecting sales? That I'm the ONLY guy in the world that won't watch it multiple times because I didn't like it as much?
I'm using my self as a sample.

Overall perception is that this one does not hold a candle to the first. I watched the first several times. If more people think that it's not as good as the first and don't feel they need to see it multiple times then that will affect sales.

Can I prove any of this? nope. Is there precedent? Most definitely.

Avengers 2 made a 100 million less than Avengers 1. I saw Avengers 1 in the cinema 4 or 5 times and told all my friends that were on the fence about it to also watch it 4 or 5 times and they did most likely.

Avengers 2 I saw once and shrugged, never spoke about it to anyone and it made less money because I and a bunch of other folks decided to not give it their 10 euros 4-5 times this time around.

Why would you think I'm talking just about myself in that way?

AoU Didn't outgross the first, so it's not a sure thing that GotG2 will outgross GotG1

The overall perception is that it's a pretty good movie which is the only thing that matters. Who cares if it's better than the first? Movies are primarily judged at their own entity

 

[iEquinox]

You think I'm talking about MY 10 euros affecting sales? That I'm the ONLY guy in the world that won't watch it multiple times because I didn't like it as much?
I'm using my self as a sample.

Overall perception is that this one does not hold a candle to the first. I watched the first several times. If more people think that it's not as good as the first and don't feel they need to see it multiple times then that will affect sales.

Can I prove any of this? nope. Is there precedent? Most definitely.

Avengers 2 made a 100 million less than Avengers 1. I saw Avengers 1 in the cinema 4 or 5 times and told all my friends that were on the fence about it to also watch it 4 or 5 times and they did most likely.

Avengers 2 I saw once and shrugged, never spoke about it to anyone and it made less money because I and a bunch of other folks decided to not give it their 10 euros 4-5 times this time around.

Why would you think I'm talking just about myself in that way?

AoU Didn't outgross the first, so it's not a sure thing that GotG2 will outgross GotG1

The point I was making is that the critical reception for GotG2 has been good. Maybe not quite as good as the reception for the first, but it's still very good. With the positive response, you can pretty much guarantee it will have better legs than BvS. You suggested GotG2 could take a nose-dive like BvS did after the OW, I'm saying that's close to a statistical impossibility at this point.

It's also pretty much guaranteed to make more than the first GotG, because the buzz this is generating is much bigger. Just look at the tracking figures, and the international numbers that are starting to come through. The movie won't have a OW:final gross multiplier as big as the first one had, but with the information we have so far, the OW will be so much bigger, that even with a significantly lower multiplier it should still outgross the first.

The international market is where GotG2 can really grow compared to the first. The first one made less than 440M overseas, which is not as impressive as the 333M it made domestically. If the other international markets show close to the same growth we've seen from the markets we have numbers for so far, GotG2 will do a lot better on the international market than the first one did. Overall, it's looking like GotG2 will easily outgross GotG. The question is: by how much?

 

[JtheDreamer]

Something interesting for 2016 I've thought about. I know not all things are equal

But is it fair that Suicide Squad was greatly maligned and it still made over $300 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange, highly praised, but made less domestically and worldwide than Suicide Squad. Doctor Strange is seen as a greater hit, but the budget for Doctor Strange was only reportedly $10 million lower.

Do reviews and online reception color the "Success/Failure" of a film too much? I wonder what everyone else thinks.

The fact that SS made more money and was slightly profitable is downright shameful. That movie was complete trash.

Just shows you that sometimes people don't give a rats ass about the film being coherent. They just want hip characters saying stereotypical things and blowing stuff up.

 

[TheVileOne]

the fact that ss made more money and was slightly profitable is downright shameful. That movie was complete trash.

Just shows you that sometimes people don't give a rats ass about the film being coherent. They just want hip characters saying stereotypical things and blowing stuff up.

lol

 

[HammerDown]

I still would be shocked if GOTG2 didn't go over the 1B mark.
It's tracking for a OW of 130 to 150M. The first one had a OW of only 95M. Right there is a massive bump on their numbers. The reception for the movie is still very positive and GOTG is no longer a unknown property.

I think it will also crush overseas.

 

[TheVileOne]

It'll need some decent Beauty and the Beast staying power to reach $1 billion. I'd say not impossible, we shall see.

 

[Ozbridge]

I vote for 800-900M. Without RDJ I doubt it can reach 1B.

Btw I can't believe there're already boot-leg gifs all over Tumblr.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Darthskywalker is actually right with his reasoning here. Irrespective of GoTg's recent cultural significance, Vol.2 is positioned to be aiming jo join the $Billion club. If it gets there or thereabouts is something we obviously have to wait and see but considering how much the first made and the franchise's ever growing brand; coupled with the fact that Doctor Strange and Logan both made over $600 million; the former making almost $700million, it's disingenuous to say that Vol.2 isn't targeting that $Billion milestone.

If it doesn't hit a Billion but makes more than the first, I wouldn't call it a failure but rather a disappointing success that Disney/Marvel can still be proud of; but in any case, yes, believe this movie is definitely made to target that $Billion.

You say this like it is a rare occurrence.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The first numbers are in. And if it does this everywhere, which it probably should, a billion shouldn't be difficult at all.

http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-opening-international-box-office-1202077856/

Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 rocketed into its first three markets on Tuesday, taking advantage of local holidays to get the ball rolling at the international box office. The total from Australia, Italy and New Zealand is $6.6M.

Pressing play on the second Awesome Mixtape in Australia, the James Gunn-helmed film bowed at No. 1 to an estimated $2.9M. That’s the second-biggest opening day ever for a Marvel Cinematic Universe release — behind only The Avengers — and is more than three times bigger than the start of the original Guardians of the Galaxy (which debuted on a non-holiday in 2014). Adding in successful Monday night previews ahead of Tuesday’s Anzac holiday, the Oz cume is $4.5M.

In Italy, GOTG2 also was No. 1, this time on Liberation Day, with an estimated $1.4M. The launch is the third-best for an MCU title and was more than triple the openings of GOTG and Doctor Strange (again, non-holiday opening days). It also was 29% ahead of Batman v Superman: Dawn Of Justice, 23% ahead of Captain America: Civil War, 15% ahead of Avengers: Age of Ultron and 1% above Suicide Squad, none of which bowed on a holiday.

New Zealand, also celebrating Anzac, scored $400K for the top opening day of 2017 and the third-highest opening day ever for the MCU. It’s bigger than both Ultron and Civil War (the non-holiday caveat stands here too). With Monday night previews, the cume rises to $700K.

The ragtag bunch of Guardians — which includes Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper and now Kurt Russell — is looking at a launch weekend internationally in the $100M range, and some see higher. While the initial numbers out of the three markets above are extremely encouraging, Disney reminds us that they all were holiday plays.

GOTG2 will be in 37 material markets this weekend. Today it adds France along with Belgium, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Domestic and the rest of the world, including China but not yet Japan, catch up the following frame.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-opening-international-box-office-1202077856/

UPDATE, FRIDAY: Zooming in 29 offshore markets, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 has amassed $22.3M at the international box office through Thursday. After bowing with $6.6M on Tuesday in just three hubs (which each had holidays), GOTG2 moved into a further nine on Wednesday — notably France — and then 17 more yesterday (including Germany and Brazil). The scores are showing the ragtag space family running considerably ahead of the original Guardians Of The Galaxy, as well as other Marvel Cinematic Universe sequels, Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Thor: The Dark World.

Australia currently leads offshore with $6.2M after bowing on Tuesday’s Anzac holiday. France, which chimed in on Wednesday, is at $2.7M; Italy (also a Tuesday bow) has plunked down $2M so far; Germany joined the fun yesterday with $1.5M; and Brazil also got in on the action Thursday with $1.2M. Those are the Top 5 markets on the James Gunn-helmed pic thus far.

The initial numbers have been somewhat bolstered by the Australia/New Zealand and Italy holiday Tuesdays, and the position versus comps will begin to clarify as more markets experience regular play. In the same hubs where GOTG2 is debuting this weekend, the first film grossed around $65M at current exchange rates. Thor: The Dark World bowed to $85.4M and Captain America: The Winter Soldier to $67.6M, also at today’s exchange. This one will go higher than all three (and it’s notable that in some markets, it’s opened bigger than Captain America: Civil War).

Here’s a look at how yesterday’s play breaks down:

Germany‘s opening day was $1.5M at No. 1 with 66% market share for the 2nd biggest start of the year, behind Fate Of The Furious. That was 29% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy, 21% ahead of The Avengers and 30% ahead of Captain America: Civil War.

Brazil‘s launch was $1.2M for No. 1 and a huge +95% on GOTG.

The Netherlands blasted off to $500K, the No. 1 start of 2017 and the 2nd highest MCU opening day ever behind only Civil War (+83% vs GOTG).

Taiwan grossed $600K for +78% on GOTG; Hong Kong was $300K at 24% over GOTG; and Singapore also rocked in with $300K for 14% above GOTG.

Austria took in $200K at No. 1; 2nd biggest MCU debut behind Iron Man 3; +51% on GOTG.

There are another host of markets opening today, including the UK, Spain and Mexico. We’ll have an update on those tomorrow.

 

[LoganPool]

It's already at 22.3M. Only 977.700.000 more to go. Easy money! Welcome to the Billion Dollar Club, Guardians!

 

[Tony Stark]

OK, yeah those are good numbers and would point toward a billion. I feel pretty confident, but I was a bit worried after the early reviews seemed to be pretty tepid, because of the BvS backlash, a film that should have easily made 1B.

There's really very little competition until POTC 5 is out. I'd be more worried about Alien Covenant, but after Prometheus, I think that film will do OK and might take the no. 1 slot for the week but won't seriously jeopardize Guardians.

 

[Lilbaz]

You think I'm talking about MY 10 euros affecting sales? That I'm the ONLY guy in the world that won't watch it multiple times because I didn't like it as much?
I'm using my self as a sample.

Overall perception is that this one does not hold a candle to the first. I watched the first several times. If more people think that it's not as good as the first and don't feel they need to see it multiple times then that will affect sales.

Can I prove any of this? nope. Is there precedent? Most definitely.

Avengers 2 made a 100 million less than Avengers 1. I saw Avengers 1 in the cinema 4 or 5 times and told all my friends that were on the fence about it to also watch it 4 or 5 times and they did most likely.

Avengers 2 I saw once and shrugged, never spoke about it to anyone and it made less money because I and a bunch of other folks decided to not give it their 10 euros 4-5 times this time around.

Why would you think I'm talking just about myself in that way?

AoU Didn't outgross the first, so it's not a sure thing that GotG2 will outgross GotG1

For me it holds a candle to the first and is one of the best films marvel has produced. Better than iron man 3, iron man 2, aou and even avengers (although avengers was unique for what it did).

It deserves to make a billion.

 

[Panacea]

The overall perception is that it's a pretty good movie which is the only thing that matters.

That isn't the only thing that matters, repeat viewings all add up.

 

[Vincanws]

Avengers 2 I saw once and shrugged, never spoke about it to anyone and it made less money because I and a bunch of other folks decided to not give it their 10 euros 4-5 times this time around.

Why would you think I'm talking just about myself in that way?

AoU Didn't outgross the first, so it's not a sure thing that GotG2 will outgross GotG1

Well, 'nothing' is a sure thing in the movie business. I mean, look at the Transformers movies. Based on their critical mauling we'd expect zero repeat viewings and yet somehow they continue to crack a billion and then some. And we're here talking about a critically praised movie (by comparison) and about how many repeat viewings it's likely to get and it's perception.

No one really knows yet with GotG 2.

For what it's worth, so far it's tracking above GotG in a lot of countries it's been released in. Though doesn't mean too much just yet.

 

[Lilbaz]

That isn't the only thing that matters, repeat viewings all add up.

The vast majority of people don't do repeat viewings in the cinema.

 

[iEquinox]

That isn't the only thing that matters, repeat viewings all add up.

The reception for the movie has been very good. Repeat viewings shouldn't be a problem.

Some people are acting like this is some critically panned movie. It's not.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I am not predicting. All nuance is flying right over your head here.

Oh I know what you are trying to do. I know you'll "blame the movie" and claim people didn't like it if it doesn't match your prediction.

This despite the fact that box office and quality do not go hand in hand.

Just own your prediction with no excuses. Heck...I could totally be wrong here. I can admit it if it happens. Maybe there is room for GotG to grow.

Why would anyone think that the first movie, which was hamstrung by being unknown, hit the box office ceiling for the franchise? Aside from Avengers, which was a cinematic event in it's own right, every MCU sequel has made more money than it's predecessor.

Because the box office was such a surprise. Exactly like Deadpool. And Deadpool 2 is also not going to match the first. The novelty factor is gone with the second one. You'll get a bigger OW but it's going to be the same people that saw it over the course of many weeks the first time.

So you can't really compare GotG to Capt America and Thor which did "ok" and had room to grow. GotG gathered in all its audience right off the bat.

 

[C-3PO]

I don't think this one is as repeat view friendly as the first. I saw the first up to 3 times in the cinema but I have no desire whatsoever to see this one again any time soon so it could still take that nosedive.

Just speaking for myself, I saw it for the first time today, and I'm seeing it again on Monday, and again on my birthday soon.