No trick here: The estimates for
Universal/
Miramax/
Blumhouse’s
Halloween reboot-sequel keep climbing, with the high-end of current global projections at $100M.
That’s $70M stateside (and some even think that’s low) at 3,928 U.S./Canada locations and another $30M from 21 markets, the biggest scares coming from Mexico (where horror is a fave), UK, Russia and Taiwan. Conservative estimates from inside Uni are at $50M stateside, and $12M-$18M offshore, but rival consensus believe the David Gordon Green-directed pic will make a bigger killing at the B.O.; at least $65M-plus domestic. We’ve heard since the movie landed on tracking that the R-rated pic is playing far beyond the standard older male demo and has a wide audience hooked. Green, Danny McBride and Jeff Fradley breathed life into the script, characters which were originally created by John Carpenter and Debra Hill.
Fandango is already reporting that
Halloween is the biggest horror pre-seller this year, besting New Line’s
The Nun which opened to $53.8M, repping the best debut ever for a
Conjuring movie. That pic went on to have a $131M global bow, however, it launched in more offshore territories, numbering 60.
Here in U.S./Canada,
Halloween is technically the only new major studio wide entry, however, 20th Century Fox is widening its African American YA feature adaptation
The Hate U Give which played at 248 sites last weekend. Current running total is $2.8M and the industry projection is that the pic could earn another $7M-$9M. Sony’s
Venom and Warner Bros.’
A Star Is Born is fighting for second with $18M-$20M. Universal/DreamWorks’
First Man could decline 50% to 55% for $7.2M to $8M.
Halloween‘s launch abroad is considered soft in regards to the big blood that is yet to flow. Horror overindexes in Latin America and many of those markets don’t hit until the October 25 frame. But here’s a codicil: slasher films have a harder time there. Some see
Halloween performing like
It abroad. South East Asia also likes its scares, and Indonesia and the Philippines are on deck this week. It’s a difficult one to assess given the staggered rollout and that comps from the franchise itself are outdated.
Halloween is a property with a long legacy and folks the world over should be intrigued to see Jamie Lee Curtis return to Laurie Strode, though it’s thought they may look to the domestic performance before opening their wallets. While horror can be frontloaded, this means there may not be a rush-out factor as older viewers wait to catch the now 59-year-old badass.
Extended footage shown at CinemaCon in Las Vegas and CineEurope in Barcelona was rousingly received earlier this year. It’s worth noting that the Halloween holiday with all its tricks and treats, ghouls and goblins is celebrated globally, even gaining traction in Europe over the last several years. It also coincides with All Saints Day on November 1 which is a national holiday in some markets which should see pick-up then.
In comps, the franchise is not viable as the last movies date too far back, and overseas markets have shifted greatly since. Recently,
The Nun’s top hubs were Mexico, Brazil and the UK. IT scored in the UK, Germany and Mexico. Annabelle: Creation’s tops were Mexico, Korea and Brazil.
The Nun has conjured $243M overseas, a strong 67% of its box office which is about on par with how superhero movies split the world. Global it’s the best
Conjuring movie ever with $359.3M.
Annabelle: Creation likewise did about 67% offshore. IT, which kicked off a renewed fall horror craze last year, took 53% of its box office balloons from international.
But I suppose it's hard to achieve true originality these days when so many movies have come before.
