Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]532521[/split]

 

[Ozbridge]

As OP I'll provide some information on the movie's box office potential:

1. Competitions: A new director was hired last month so I'm not so sure that the movie will be released on the scheduled May 25th (though other blockbusters start production 1 year or less before release date all the time), and I'm quite certain that it won't be moved to Christmas 2018 since Disney already placed Mary Poppins there and it won't move because 4-quadrant musical Mary Poppins need holiday more than Han Solo movie. Technically it can still be released on 12/14 so its 2nd weekend will fall in line with Christmas like TFA and Rogue One, but I think that's a bad idea and will hurt both movies.

Since the situation is quite uncertain I'll just assume that Han Solo movie will still be released on May 25th. Competitors are:

- 3 weeks prior (5/4): Avengers Infinity War
- 2 weeks prior (5/11): Life of the Party (WB PG13 female comedy)
- 1 week prior (5/18): LAIKA stop-motion animation
- No other releases in the same weekend
- 1 week after (6/1): Deadpool 2 (remember that this is R rated), DC Super Hero Girls
- 2 weeks after (6/8): Ocean's 8, Transformer Bumblebee
- 3 weeks after (6/15): The Incredibles
- 4 weeks after (6/22): Jurassic World

2. Double features: The Incredibles on 4th weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp on 7th weekend.

3. Holidays: Father's Day on 4th weekend, Independence Day on 7th weekend (anything else? I'm not American I don't know).

4. Trivia:

- This movie is the first new SW movie not released the week before Christmas so it won't benefit from holidays but will get summer weekdays and good late leg despite being hurt by new big releases early on.

- Last weekend of May is the traditional release date of Disney's critic-proof cash grabs (like live-action remakes in March/ April, MCU movies in early May and November, Pixar animations on Father's Day weekend and Pixar/ WAS animation in Thanksgiving). In previous years last weekend of May is the release date of PotC (2017), Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016), Tomorrowland (2015), and Maleficent (2014).

- That being said maybe Disney has decided to ditch those blockbusters with middling reception that may or may not break out, put a SW movie in late May and save Chrismas for live action musical remake/ sequel of Disney classic. Last weekend of May now has Han Solo movie (2018) and SW Episode IX (2019), Christmas has Mary Poppins in 2018 and Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale #2 [Live Action] (TM) in 2019 (assuming release schedule won't be changed).

That's it, discuss!

 

[MeenieWK]

Personally... which is all anyone’s opionion can be

I think non rabid fans, were disappointed with the direction TLJ took
And have unfortunatley assumed Solo will follow suit.

TFA had a huge opening because of hype but then huge legs because people liked what they saw

TLJ had a huge opening (TFA hype) but then had weaker legs because people were turned off

It’s really simple, at some point The SW movies need to start making big big changes and trying new things... they have to in order to evolve and survive

But.... the conclusion of the original Trilogy is NOT the time to do it

If Rian wants to make contrary choices, good on him and hopefully they work, but do it after the origin characters are out, do it AFTER Ep9, not before

 

[Ozbridge]

That being said maybe Disney has decided to ditch those blockbusters with middling reception that may or may not break out, put a SW movie in late May and save Chrismas for live action musical remake/ sequel of Disney classic. Last weekend of May now has Han Solo movie (2018) and SW Episode IX (2019), Christmas has Mary Poppins in 2018 and Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale #2 [Live Action] (TM) in 2019.

Ok now we know that isn’t gonna happen.

Btw Disney ditched their traditional Memorial Day opener (PotC movies) and replaced it with a blockbuster with middling reception and doesn’t break out.

 

[dataSlave]

Personally... which is all anyone’s opionion can be

I think non rabid fans, were disappointed with the direction TLJ took
And have unfortunatley assumed Solo will follow suit.

TFA had a huge opening because of hype but then huge legs because people liked what they saw

TLJ had a huge opening (TFA hype) but then had weaker legs because people were turned off

It’s really simple, at some point The SW movies need to start making big big changes and trying new things... they have to in order to evolve and survive

But.... the conclusion of the original Trilogy is NOT the time to do it

If Rian wants to make contrary choices, good on him and hopefully they work, but do it after the origin characters are out, do it AFTER Ep9, not before

One issue is the interaction between hype and actual audience reaction. As you point out, TFA got huge hype and good audience feedback. Those worked together to give the movie legs. But with TLJ those worked against each other. Hype + good feelings from the prior movie gave TLJ a huge opening weekend. Very mixed audience reaction caused the box office to fall off a cliff thereafter.


Now we are left with lingering bad feelings from TLJ having a negative impact on Solo, just as the positive afterglow from TFA helped TLJ to open big. What I don't think is appreciated enough is how much of a hit the reviewers' credibility took with the SW fanbase on TLJ. The critics were almost universal in their praise and a big chunk of the audience didn't like the movie and some hated it with a passion. Those people are simply going to ignore any pre-opening hype for Solo. The former group may be persuaded by good WoM. The later are never coming back.

 

[Deck Rickard]

If only they had cast Dave Franco. This would have been a billion dollar movie for sure.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@boxoffice:

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
$84.42M 3-Day Weekend (Actual)
$103.01M 4-Day Weekend (Actual)
$103.01M Total (North America)
#Solo #StarWars* #BoxOffice

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Solo by days (Memorial Day U.S. Holiday Weekend 2018):
Thursday: $14,100,000 (estimate) (Rogue One -51.83%)
Friday: $21,275,125 (number is minus Thursday estimate) (RO -49.46%)
Saturday: $24,601,896 (RO -46.87%)
Sunday: $24,443,468 (RO -35.13%) (softer Sunday drop due to Monday holiday)
Monday: $18,596,323 (RO +5.68%) (Monday official holiday)

 

[Frodo]

One issue is the interaction between hype and actual audience reaction. As you point out, TFA got huge hype and good audience feedback. Those worked together to give the movie legs. But with TLJ those worked against each other. Hype + good feelings from the prior movie gave TLJ a huge opening weekend. Very mixed audience reaction caused the box office to fall off a cliff thereafter.


Now we are left with lingering bad feelings from TLJ having a negative impact on Solo, just as the positive afterglow from TFA helped TLJ to open big. What I don't think is appreciated enough is how much of a hit the reviewers' credibility took with the SW fanbase on TLJ. The critics were almost universal in their praise and a big chunk of the audience didn't like the movie and some hated it with a passion. Those people are simply going to ignore any pre-opening hype for Solo. The former group may be persuaded by good WoM. The later are never coming back.

TLJ reaction as one factor in Solo's box office has certainly now become part of the conversation among the geek pundits analysis at least , and the mainstream press brings up the film in relation to a different argument with regards to SW fatigue.

Either way, at this point , I think it becomes more difficult to keep that film out of the conversation when talking about the potential effects it could have had on Solo.

 

[Wheels]

There is also a certain segment who found the idea of this film moronic like myself. My interest in this film came from general love of Star Wars and excitement over Lord and Miller, who made a Lego movie work.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm not convinced yet that this is primarily TLJ fallout. There were other issues with this movie from a lack of hype (I've seen promotion for Infinity War, Deadpool, Jurassic World, and The Incredibles all over the place, not so much for Solo), high profile production difficulties, recasting a legend with an unknown, and decent but not great reviews.

Let's see what Episode IX does. If it has a clearly disappointing opening weekend, I will concede that TLJ backlash is real and not just a small vocal minority.

 

[jmc]

I had to tune into Collider's Movie Talk today to see what their response was to this. The reality has finally hit home even amongst those who have a blind spot to the fan feeling towards Lucasfilm. They were honest and didn't hold back, so credit to them for having a real conversation for once.

 

[Karelia]

I had to tune into Collider's Movie Talk today to see what their response was to this. The reality has finally hit home even amongst those who have a blind spot to the fan feeling towards Lucasfilm. They were honest and didn't hold back, so credit to them for having a real conversation for once.

Been waiting for them to acknowledge it for a while now. It was nice to see they finally did. To be honest, I'm kinda shocked that Harloff wasn't that big on Solo. He liked it, but didnt "love it." It did a lot of things he has complained about in the past. But y'know. Just opinions at the end of the day.

 

[Frodo]

I'm not convinced yet that this is primarily TLJ fallout. There were other issues with this movie from a lack of hype (I've seen promotion for Infinity War, Deadpool, Jurassic World, and The Incredibles all over the place, not so much for Solo), high profile production difficulties, recasting a legend with an unknown, and decent but not great reviews.

Let's see what Episode IX does. If it has a clearly disappointing opening weekend, I will concede that TLJ backlash is real and not just a small vocal minority.

I think TLJ is just one of many factors . The backlash with fandom is real , but I don't think there was a backlash with general audiences.

I just think that the reception to TLJ was probably more mixed with general audiences with those who liked it and didn't like it, as opposed to the claim it was universally loved by the GA. In other words while there was a consensus among critics , there wasn't one among the GA.

That means that alot of non swfans who may not have been crazy about TLJ decided to skip this one. It doesn't mean they won't come back for 9, but it also doesn't mean the last film didn't have an effect on their decision to see Solo.

It was probably one of many factors that played into alot of people's decision to see it in the theater.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

[jmc]

Interesting article about Disney being too reliant on franchises and the problems that could come about. I’ve been saying for a while the company is creatively bankrupt.

https://investorplace.com/2018/05/s...omb-highlights-risks-to-walt-disney-co-stock/

The audience score has again crept up 2 points to 63%. Can we collectively agree now TLJ score is far more legitimate than what some have been suggesting?

 

[terry78]

Whenever they try and do original one shot flicks they used to fail but the tried and true franchises always worked. Now it's become muddled.

 

[jmc]

Whenever they try and do original one shot flicks they used to fail but the tried and true franchises always worked. Now it's become muddled.

Imagine if the MCU started to slow down also.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Interesting article about Disney being too reliant on franchises and the problems that could come about. I’ve been saying for a while the company is creatively bankrupt.

https://investorplace.com/2018/05/s...omb-highlights-risks-to-walt-disney-co-stock/

The audience score has again crept up 2 points to 63%. Can we collectively agree now TLJ score is far more legitimate than what some have been suggesting?

No. As for why the audience score for Solo may be going up and TLJ's was not? Solo made less money, so less people saw it, and the movie is not really designed to be divisive. It's a safe movie. TLJ was designed to be divisive and rock the boat. So the fans are more likely to continue pushing the issue on that one than the spin-off no one cares about.

We can have this discussion once we see Episode 9's OW, IMO. But in regards to Solo, it has its own problems and reasons it is performing like it is.

 

[P Supreme]

I had to tune into Collider's Movie Talk today to see what their response was to this. The reality has finally hit home even amongst those who have a blind spot to the fan feeling towards Lucasfilm. They were honest and didn't hold back, so credit to them for having a real conversation for once.

yeah I watched it but you can see Ellis being uncomfortable talking about it and was mainly silent Rocha kept it 100

 

[jmc]

yeah I watched it but you can see Ellis being uncomfortable talking about it and was mainly silent Rocha kept it 100

Ellis seems like the kind of person who just wants to enjoy Star Wars. But kudos to Perri for being the one to finally ask the hard questions, she’s about the lone voice of reason in that entire crew.

 

[Karelia]

It started out with like 54% when it first released. People could have genuinely not liked the film, but I think a lot of people who boycott it just downvoted it in the beginning.
Now it's up to 63%

I think TLJ audience score is more legitimate than some would like to believe. Read any comments on ANY SW article on facebook. You're going to see "Rian Johnson/Kathleen Kennedy is the reason I'm not going to see Solo" with hundreds of likes. Usually the most liked comment. So I think the TLJ score is pretty legit.

 

[P Supreme]

Ellis seems like the kind of person who just wants to enjoy Star Wars. But kudos to Perri for being the one to finally ask the hard questions, she’s about the lone voice of reason in that entire crew.

Rocha and Schnepp are the ones that if they are on the panel I watch if not I skip

 

[Karelia]

I'm honestly really curious to see how this movie does this week. I've seen quite a few people say they were busy last week but were gonna check it out this week. They probably should have released this on May 4th and pushed IW back a couple of weeks or released in December.

 

[Spider-Fan]

IW is going to likely make 2 billion dollars. Disney is happy with that and it is good it was never moved. Solo was never in the running for 2 billion. That is the movie you move.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Looks like I was right. This movie has already bombed. It will be the lowest domestic grossing SW movie (in total gross). I still wouldn’t see it on discount Tuesday.