Han Solo Movie Box office Thread

Discussion in 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' started by Ozbridge, Jul 19, 2017.

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What is box office DOMESTIC and WORLDWIDE? (please vote 2 options, 1 for each)

  1. Over 1.3 billion worldwide

  2. 1.2 - 1.3 billion worldwide

  3. 1.1 - 1.2 billion worldwide

  4. 1.0 - 1.1 billion worldwide

  5. 900 million - 1.0 billion worldwide

  6. 800 - 900 million worldwide

  7. 700 - 800 million worldwide

  8. Under 700 million worldwide

  9. Over 650 million domestic

  10. 600 - 650 million domestic

  11. 550 - 600 million domestic

  12. 500 - 550 million domestic

  13. 450 - 500 million domestic

  14. 400 - 450 million domestic

  15. 350 - 400 million domestic

  16. Under 350 million domestic

  17. Over 1.3 billion worldwide

  18. 1.2 - 1.3 billion worldwide

  19. 1.1 - 1.2 billion worldwide

  20. 1.0 - 1.1 billion worldwide

  21. 900 million - 1.0 billion worldwide

  22. 800 - 900 million worldwide

  23. 700 - 800 million worldwide

  24. Under 700 million worldwide

  25. Over 650 million domestic

  26. 600 - 650 million domestic

  27. 550 - 600 million domestic

  28. 500 - 550 million domestic

  29. 450 - 500 million domestic

  30. 400 - 450 million domestic

  31. 350 - 400 million domestic

  32. Under 350 million domestic

Multiple votes are allowed.
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  1. Ozbridge

    Ozbridge Registered

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    As OP I'll provide some information on the movie's box office potential:

    1. Competitions: A new director was hired last month so I'm not so sure that the movie will be released on the scheduled May 25th (though other blockbusters start production 1 year or less before release date all the time), and I'm quite certain that it won't be moved to Christmas 2018 since Disney already placed Mary Poppins there and it won't move because 4-quadrant musical Mary Poppins need holiday more than Han Solo movie. Technically it can still be released on 12/14 so its 2nd weekend will fall in line with Christmas like TFA and Rogue One, but I think that's a bad idea and will hurt both movies.

    Since the situation is quite uncertain I'll just assume that Han Solo movie will still be released on May 25th. Competitors are:

    - 3 weeks prior (5/4): Avengers Infinity War
    - 2 weeks prior (5/11): Life of the Party (WB PG13 female comedy)
    - 1 week prior (5/18): LAIKA stop-motion animation
    - No other releases in the same weekend
    - 1 week after (6/1): Deadpool 2 (remember that this is R rated), DC Super Hero Girls
    - 2 weeks after (6/8): Ocean's 8, Transformer Bumblebee
    - 3 weeks after (6/15): The Incredibles
    - 4 weeks after (6/22): Jurassic World

    2. Double features: The Incredibles on 4th weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp on 7th weekend.

    3. Holidays: Father's Day on 4th weekend, Independence Day on 7th weekend (anything else? I'm not American I don't know).

    4. Trivia:

    - This movie is the first new SW movie not released the week before Christmas so it won't benefit from holidays but will get summer weekdays and good late leg despite being hurt by new big releases early on.

    - Last weekend of May is the traditional release date of Disney's critic-proof cash grabs (like live-action remakes in March/ April, MCU movies in early May and November, Pixar animations on Father's Day weekend and Pixar/ WAS animation in Thanksgiving). In previous years last weekend of May is the release date of PotC (2017), Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016), Tomorrowland (2015), and Maleficent (2014).

    - That being said maybe Disney has decided to ditch those blockbusters with middling reception that may or may not break out, put a SW movie in late May and save Chrismas for live action musical remake/ sequel of Disney classic. Last weekend of May now has Han Solo movie (2018) and SW Episode IX (2019), Christmas has Mary Poppins in 2018 and Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale #2 [Live Action] (TM) in 2019 (assuming release schedule won't be changed).

    That's it, discuss!
     
  2. Mysteryman

    Mysteryman Registered

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    It will make money.
    Nuff Said, for now.
     
  3. LucDisfilm19

    LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    Solo will surprise and make a billion like Rogue One did.
     
  4. bubbadoom

    bubbadoom Registered

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    While I realize Memorial Day weekend IS the traditional STAR WARS release date - this has not been the case since Disney bought LucasFilms and released THE FORCE AWAKENS.
    I am curious why Disney chose not to release this at Christmas time which has proven to be a very profitable time for their last three SW films.
    Seems like the end of May is going to dramatically effect INFINITY WAR box office as well - why compete with your own product when it is not necessary?
     
  5. writer0327

    writer0327 Registered

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    Well I wanna say either Rogue One or TLJ was supposed to release in May, but they got bumped back.

    Many thought after the firing of Lord and Miller that Solo would get bumped back as well, but I guess they were able to keep the date.

    And by the time May 25 rolls around, A:IW will have already made the vast majority of its money.
     
  6. Mandon Knight

    Mandon Knight NCC-1701

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    I think this maybe a 'casualty' of audience indifference to TLJ. I can't see it doing more than $850 million WW.
     
  7. Kuwolski

    Kuwolski g r u n t - m a n

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    I figured that would be the best case scenario anyway. I think 759-850 is reasonable.
     
  8. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Registered

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    Well, let's remember The Last Jedi was originally going to come out for the Memorial Day 2017 period before it got pushed back. Then they pushed it back, and they still kept Han Solo in May 2018. All the directing issues, and they still kept that date.

    My guess is that it's important to the shareholders and Disney brass for quarter quotas that the movie still comes out at that release date.

    IMHO it's sort of like major developers not delaying major game franchises when they need to in order to fix or polish up the game. They got to meet those release date deadlines because the guys in charge want to meet their quarterly demands.

    And as was stated earlier, Infinity War will have already made most of its money by the time Han Solo comes out. I don't think Disney is too worried about that.

    Just for example, Disney released Thor Ragnarok and Coco in the same month of November. I'm sure they've doubled on movies they release in the same month as well, the just put them a few weeks apart.
     
  9. Ozbridge

    Ozbridge Registered

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    Jfc I put Over 650M domestic as a option, while even TLJ can’t make that much now. And worst case scenario Under 350M domestic has a real possibility.

    Oh well in my defense when creating the thread I expected that this would perform close to Rogue One.
     
  10. SomeOldGuy

    SomeOldGuy Registered

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    It’s probably just my own lack of enthusiasm for this talking, but I’m going low on this one, under 350/under 700.
     
  11. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Registered

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    I'm sure a lot of clickbait articles and YouTubers are going to be spamming Star Wars fatigue by the time this movie comes out.
     
  12. SomeOldGuy

    SomeOldGuy Registered

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    I don’t doubt it. Clickbait hot takes are inevitable. But I don’t think fatigue is a big issue. I just wonder exactly who this movie is for outside the core fan base (and if that’s all they’re aiming for, that’s fine). Maybe if they ever produce a trailer it will become clearer to me.
     
  13. 2kt09

    2kt09 Snyder Rent-Free

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    "Before he died, he was alive"
    "Relive the moment Solo met Lando and formed the unbreakable bond of a lifetime"

    uhhh...under $1 bil projection
     
  14. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Registered

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    $1 billion shouldn't be the benchmark for each movie. It's unrealistic. Especially with a new movie every year.
     
  15. Iceman

    Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    I wouldn't call it fatigue so much as the novelty of getting Star Wars after all these years is not going to be as fresh with the 4th film in 4 years. And now that it looks like China has given up on the franchise it's going to make the big numbers that bit harder to achieve.
     
  16. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Registered

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    A movie studio like Lucasfim shouldn't revolve any decisions around China.

    How much money does Disney even earn from a gross in China?
     
  17. Roose Bolton

    Roose Bolton Son of Katas

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    I don't know if it's necessarily the benchmark, but Solo's production budget is pretty damned high, possibly in the area of $300-400 million with the reshoots, so it's going to need to get that higher intake to turnover any real profit.
     
  18. DarthSkywalker

    DarthSkywalker May the Force Be With You

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    They are going to take the hit on this one. They are hoping for a trilogy out of it, which is why they were so willing to reshoot it.
     
  19. BigSams50

    BigSams50 Knight of Ren

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    If it has a good trailer? Maybe a billion. If it doesnt? I can see about 600 mill
     
  20. dataSlave

    dataSlave Registered

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    Lucasfilms has never done well in China but other Disney properties have made a bunch of money there. Marvel Universe, Pirates of the Caribbean and their animated stuff have been quite successful.
     
  21. ludovica

    ludovica Daddy Feige notice me!

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    I did a quick search but did not find anything, have there been leaks about this?
     
  22. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Registered

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  23. ludovica

    ludovica Daddy Feige notice me!

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  24. Ozbridge

    Ozbridge Registered

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    Have we got any official stills yet? AMatW will be released on Solo's SEVENTH weekend and it already has trailer. Is this even supposed to be released in May??
     
  25. batman1

    batman1 Registered

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    I truly feel the movie is going to under perform. But we shall see.
     
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