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It's way too early to discuss about who will win the oscars at next year's ceremony in February 2009. There's five months left until the Academy names the five nominees each for the best actor and best supporting actor categories. We'll have to wait and see which actors from the upcoming 2008 movies will be nominated. I hope that Heath will be considered seriously when it comes time to nominate. However, he will obviously have competition from other actors. It's not going to be easy. So, my suggestion is to wait until December 2008 and then see and evaluate whether Heath should get a nomination or not. But, right now, it's too early to even predict anything.
Will Heath Ledger win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar? No. The late star of "The Dark Knight," who turned the summer upside down with his charismatic portrayal of the Joker, will get nominated, that's a lock, but not win. There are too many other candidates in high-profile films coming out closer to the nomination process. It's hard for a performance from the fall or summer to compete with something more recent and fresh. Marion Cotillard ("La Vie En Rose"), Jodie Foster ("The Silence of the Lambs") and Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich") are three of the very rare exceptions.