If Dark Phoenix did good both critically and financially instead of bombing, what would have happen?

[PsylockeBlackWidow]

Mods can move this somewhere else if this does not fit into this section. My question is that what if Dark Phoenix instead of bombing both critically and financially, but did well in both cases, what would have Disney done? Like for example keep the cast and make more movies with them? what is your take.

 

[Detective Conan]

This question depends on how well Dark Phoenix would’ve done critically/commercially.

A more interesting phrasing of this question is what would happen if the main franchise was as consistently critically well received & popular like the MCU and never had a badly reviewed movie before Disney bought Fox?

Consider what Kevin Feige said about Deadpool’s move to the MCU: “When we were purchased, Bob said to us, ‘if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. There’s no question that Deadpool is working, so why would we change it?”

This comment is telling in a lot of ways, and gives us a window into Feige’s thoughts on the state of the Fox Marvel properties at the time.

1. Notice that he only says this about Deadpool, not the other Fox Marvel properties like X-Men & FF.

2. This indirectly reveals that he only views Deadpool as the one Fox Marvel franchise that’s working well enough that it doesn’t need the “start from scratch” hard reboot that FF and X-Men will get. Side note: I mention Deadpool separately from X-Men since it isn’t part of the X-Men license.

3. Feige made these statements before Dark Phoenix was released, and knows full well of the inconsistent quality of the Fox X-Men movies. Logan came and went but the last mainline X-film before DP was Apocalypse a stinker that left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths.

I point all this out to stress that I don’t think Feige would automatically be swayed to keep the Fox cast or even bring those versions into the MCU continuity like he will with Deadpool just because one movie in a franchise with varying quality throughout the years performed well. Well...not unless it made a billion dollars and had incredibly good reviews which wouldn’t be possible with a movie coming off the bad buzz of Apocalypse & under the helm of weak talent like Simon Kinberg.

Let’s say Kinberg pulled off a fluke and the movie turns out half-way decent and it’s better reviewed than Apcalypse(let’s say it lands in the 65-75% range) and did about on par with the last movie or slightly better than Apocalypse in part due to better word of mouth helping it. Then I’m sorry, that still wouldn’t be enough to signal to Feige to not change things with the X-Men. Even in that alternate timeline where Dark Phoenix worked(kind of) Feige still likely does what he’s doing now - which is putting the X-property in hibernation, while he plans a drastic refresh of the series.

 

[Bayne]

If Dark Phoenix by itself was a hit, I don't think that would have affected much of anything at all. Maybe at an absolute stretch they might look to bring some of those actors in to play the MCU version of the characters, but building the X-men from the ground up to fit the MCU properly would still have always been guaranteed a better financial return than trying to patchwork two wildly different things together just because Fox went out with a hit. Especially knowing that Fox's track record quite often followed hits with outright bombs (at least critically).

If the whole foxverse from top to bottom was wildly successful without exception, then the MCU probably wouldn't even be as big as it is, so that would change the equation so much it would be almost impossible to predict what would have happened.

 

[Fincher]

Yeah, pretty much that. If New Mutants or The Gifted had been a big hit, then they likely would have kept them going as their own thing, but they had plans for the "main" mutants and wouldn't have let one success get in the way of that.

 

[SumT]

if Marvel Studios ane Feige rebooted Amazing Spiderman franchise, which both movies made over $700m and only had to keep the lead actor and was really easy to integrate to MCU.....

what makes you think they would keep a universe full of mistakes, bad treatment and mess of a continuity?? lol.

The question answers itself

 

[metaphysician]

Its impossible to answer this question without also determine what was *changed* about the movie to make it do well. Which actors and director did they use? How was the plot utterly rewritten? What thematics and end state did it have? Were there changes in the prior movies?

Or to put it a different way: the quality of a movie's *response* cannot be separated from the quality of the *movie*. Postulating a better received Dark Phoenix requires also postulating a better Dark Phoenix.

 

[psylockolussus]

Still a reboot would've happened

 

[Fincher]

Its impossible to answer this question without also determine what was *changed* about the movie to make it do well. Which actors and director did they use? How was the plot utterly rewritten? What thematics and end state did it have? Were there changes in the prior movies?

Or to put it a different way: the quality of a movie's *response* cannot be separated from the quality of the *movie*. Postulating a better received Dark Phoenix requires also postulating a better Dark Phoenix.

Well, I think you can examine a hypothetical situation where the movie is exactly as is, but somehow exactly what it is is more popular than in reality. Even if Marvel didn't know why Dark Phoenix was a critical and commercial hit, they'd still have to decide what they were going to do about it.

 

[metaphysician]

Well, I think you can examine a hypothetical situation where the movie is exactly as is, but somehow exactly what it is is more popular than in reality. Even if Marvel didn't know why Dark Phoenix was a critical and commercial hit, they'd still have to decide what they were going to do about it.

And I think that such is folly, because even if you postulate such, you run into the "So, we can't actually make meaningful determinations from this outcome because nothing makes sense" problem. Now instead of requiring one to determine what was changed in the movie, you now need to to determine what was changed in the *audience itself*. That is a far far higher bar.

 

[Hand Banana]

This question depends on how well Dark Phoenix would’ve done critically/commercially.

A more interesting phrasing of this question is what would happen if the main franchise was as consistently critically well received & popular like the MCU and never had a badly reviewed movie before Disney bought Fox?

Consider what Kevin Feige said about Deadpool’s move to the MCU: “When we were purchased, Bob said to us, ‘if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. There’s no question that Deadpool is working, so why would we change it?”

This comment is telling in a lot of ways, and gives us a window into Feige’s thoughts on the state of the Fox Marvel properties at the time.

1. Notice that he only says this about Deadpool, not the other Fox Marvel properties like X-Men & FF.

2. This indirectly reveals that he only views Deadpool as the one Fox Marvel franchise that’s working well enough that it doesn’t need the “start from scratch” hard reboot that FF and X-Men will get. Side note: I mention Deadpool separately from X-Men since it isn’t part of the X-Men license.

3. Feige made these statements before Dark Phoenix was released, and knows full well of the inconsistent quality of the Fox X-Men movies. Logan came and went but the last mainline X-film before DP was Apocalypse a stinker that left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths.

I point all this out to stress that I don’t think Feige would automatically be swayed to keep the Fox cast or even bring those versions into the MCU continuity like he will with Deadpool just because one movie in a franchise with varying quality throughout the years performed well. Well...not unless it made a billion dollars and had incredibly good reviews which wouldn’t be possible with a movie coming off the bad buzz of Apocalypse & under the helm of weak talent like Simon Kinberg.

Let’s say Kinberg pulled off a fluke and the movie turns out half-way decent and it’s better reviewed than Apcalypse(let’s say it lands in the 65-75% range) and did about on par with the last movie or slightly better than Apocalypse in part due to better word of mouth helping it. Then I’m sorry, that still wouldn’t be enough to signal to Feige to not change things with the X-Men. Even in that alternate timeline where Dark Phoenix worked(kind of) Feige still likely does what he’s doing now - which is putting the X-property in hibernation, while he plans a drastic refresh of the series.

I’m someone who has been deeply examining the critical reception of the film (I’ve read all the reviews on Rotten Tomatoes believe it or not). The movie would have definitely been significantly better received even with Kinberg at the helm (not a certified fresh but it’s freshness rating definitely wouldn’t have been nearly as low as it was) if they had down the following:


1) Kept The Hellfire Club As The Villains


A lot of reviews thought that the trauma story was interesting but it was booged down by the generic aliens plot. This criticism would have been avoided if they had kept the Hellfire Club as the antagonist so the story would have been better connected.

After concept art of the Hellfire Club was released in late 2019, I rewatched Dark Phoenix and man was it obvious that those aliens were them at one point. Jessica Chastain’s character is for some reason interested in having Jean kill Erik and Charles. It makes much more sense if it was them Emma Frost that wanted them dead for killing Shaw.


2) Not Re-edit It Into A Standalone Film

There were often criticisms of the movie being rushed and you can really tell that was due to them removing a lot of footage. According to Josh Boone, both New Mutants and Dark Phoenix had to remove any dangling plot threads that were meant to be expanded in sequels. Especially in the case of Dark Phoenix as it was meant to be two-movies.

The addiction elements that the cast/crew talked about so much before release was likely cut out probably because they didn’t want to end the series with Jean basically becoming a drug addict.

3) Not Mismarketed It As An Epic Superhero Finale Based On The Whole Saga

This had X-fans complaining about them rushing to make Jean the Dark Phoenix and I saw the same complaint in a lot of reviews. Also saw people complaining about Jean not being much of a villain/threat and the aliens having no purpose. Lack of spectacle and it not being a satisfying finale.

When in reality it is essentially an origin story about how Jean becomes Phoenix, based on elements of X-Men Origins: Jean Grey and the Black Queen arc of the saga. Pretty much the complete opposite of a finale. Not to mention those storylines are character driven stories centered on Jean’s psychology with little spectacle, which Kinberg was clearly trying to recreate.

I doubt this criticism would have existed if they went into the movie knowing that it was suppose to be an adaptation of.

I could go on, those are the main points. As for Box Office, I think the original premise of the Hellfire Club returning would have interested a lot of people both comic readers and non-comics a-like. Apparently, that was going to be their selling point based on what an former Fox executive said.

 

[Hand Banana]

if Marvel Studios ane Feige rebooted Amazing Spiderman franchise, which both movies made over $700m and only had to keep the lead actor and was really easy to integrate to MCU.....

what makes you think they would keep a universe full of mistakes, bad treatment and mess of a continuity?? lol.

The question answers itself

Apparently that lost money due to the marketing cost.

Or to put it a different way: the quality of a movie's *response* cannot be separated from the quality of the *movie*. Postulating a better received Dark Phoenix requires also postulating a better Dark Phoenix.

After reading the reviews, its reception is a bit more complicated than that. The marketing of that movie played a role. Not to mention the misconception that the Dark Phoenix Saga is a story about Jean being possessed (due to the 90s cartoon version) and many people thinking that applies to the movie.

 

[Hand Banana]

It would have to make Avengers level money for them to even consider continuing. They had already decided on rebooting before this came out.

Avenger level? Nah, Days of Future Past made as much money as Deadpool and Deadpool is continuing.

 

[NHawk19]

I think Fiege was a part of X1 wasn't he? Aren't there articles about how he wanted to show certain things and was over-ruled. He may want to reboot the X-verse just to show how it should've been done in the first place.

 

[henzINNIT]

An interesting prospect. Dark Phoenix would have to have been like suuuuper awesome; an Avengers level crowd pleaser with the actors feeling like definitive versions of the characters. If they became that significant, I could see another film/series being made to remove the Dark Phoenix cast from their broken timeline and port them into the MCU.

If the merger happened in 2014, on the heels of Days Of Future Past and its continuity reset, I wonder if Feige would have felt attached enough to that original cast to move them over.

 

[Drizzle]

I think Fiege was a part of X1 wasn't he? Aren't there articles about how he wanted to show certain things and was over-ruled. He may want to reboot the X-verse just to show how it should've been done in the first place.

Yeah, that was his first producer credit and kickstarted his Marvel career. According to IMDB, starting with X-Men, he was involved with every pre-MCU Marvel movie except for the first two Blade movies and Ghost Rider. Of course he didn't have nearly as much influence on those productions as he does now, but even if they did want to follow through with his suggestions on the first X-Men movie, they were kind of limited at the time. They were treading very carefully and trying to determine what worked based on recent genre movies at the time. They saw how audiences were repelled by the corniness of Batman and Robin, but were also paying attention to the success of Blade and The Matrix, which is the reason for the black leather suits from the first three X-movies. Not only that, but they were also a bit limited with CGI. The budget didn't allow for a whole lot of breathtaking visual effects until X2. Just look at the difference between Nightcrawler's teleporting effects compared to Senator Kelly's death in the first film.

 

[Hand Banana]

If the merger happened in 2014, on the heels of Days Of Future Past and its continuity reset, I wonder if Feige would have felt attached enough to that original cast to move them over.

Well, he asked Patrick Stewart to reprise his role. So he still has some attachment.

 

[Fosterson]

Deadpool budget was $58 million and it was a hit financially, critically, and culturally. It made the same box office as DOFP which was $200 million budget. DP also cost $200 million.

And like I said the decision to reboot X-Men was already made before Dark Phoenix came out. It would have taken something massive to reverse that decision. Being a minor success is not enough.

To be fair, DoFP was widely acclaimed as well and it out-grossed Captain America TWS, which came out a few weeks earlier.

 

[SumT]

Winter woldier was a solo movie.
Dofp was an ALL STAR movie and biggest cbm bet of Fox ever. Comparing both is non sense.

 

[Fosterson]

Winter woldier was a solo movie.
Dofp was an ALL STAR movie and biggest cbm bet of Fox ever. Comparing both is non sense.

TWS wasn't a true solo movie given that it had 2 major characters from Avengers in it (Natasha and Fury), and it was also coming off the back of the enormous success of that movie. Whereas, DoFP was coming off the back of First Class (which was positively received, but wasn't exactly a massive success financially), and The Wolverine, (which got average reviews and was the lowest grossing CBM of 2013).

DoFP managed to more than double First Class's gross. To put that into context, none of the Avengers sequels managed to make twice as much money as the movie that preceded them. I honestly think we could have seen Apocalypse hit a billion if it hadn't been such a dumpster fire.

 

[Drizzle]

While we're on the topic, it's worth noting that The Winter Soldier only made about $30 million less than DOFP worldwide. Sure, it was boosted by The Avengers and being an MCU film in general but the positive reviews and good word of mouth also helped.

TWS wasn't a true solo movie given that it had 2 major characters from Avengers in it (Natasha and Fury), and it was also coming off the back of the enormous success of that movie.

Natasha and Fury played important parts in TWS, but it's still very much a Captain America movie, unlike Civil War which feels more like Avengers 2.5.

 

[Fosterson]

While we're on the topic, it's worth noting that The Winter Soldier only made about $30 million less than DOFP worldwide. Sure, it was boosted by The Avengers and being an MCU film in general but the positive reviews and good word of mouth also helped.

True, although could you not say the same about DoFP? As I said, First Class was only moderately successful at the Box Office, and while it definitely did help cleanse the palate after Last Stand and Borigins, those awful movies certainly hadn't been forgotten, meaning that there was far less goodwill towards the X-Men franchise than there was to the MCU.

Natasha and Fury played important parts in TWS, but it's still very much a Captain America movie, unlike Civil War which feels more like Avengers 2.5.

Sure, but they were both prominent in the marketing and even the trailers made it seem like this movie (far moreso than IM3 and TDW) was the "true" sequel to Avengers.

 

[Hand Banana]

DoFP managed to more than double First Class's gross. To put that into context, none of the Avengers sequels managed to make twice as much money as the movie that preceded them. I honestly think we could have seen Apocalypse hit a billion if it hadn't been such a dumpster fire.

I think that a major factor in DOFP’s success was that it was a sequel to the original series.

 

[Drizzle]

True, although could you not say the same about DoFP? As I said, First Class was only moderately successful at the Box Office, and while it definitely did help cleanse the palate after Last Stand and Borigins, those awful movies certainly hadn't been forgotten, meaning that there was far less goodwill towards the X-Men franchise than there was to the MCU.

You could, although at the time the X-Men series was more established than the MCU. Given that Bryan Singer was returning with a good number of the original cast, I was expecting DOFP to be the highest grossing superhero film of 2014. I wasn't certain how well The Winter Soldier would do because the first Captain America movie had done well but nowhere near Avengers numbers and it was also following the mediocre Thor: The Dark World. Who knew Guardians of the Galaxy would essentially come out of nowhere to be the biggest surprise hit of the year.

Sure, but they were both prominent in the marketing and even the trailers made it seem like this movie (far moreso than IM3 and TDW) was the "true" sequel to Avengers.

The marketing paid off considering the movie made twice as much as The First Avenger. Same situation with Hulk being all over the marketing for Ragnarok.

 

[EnDz0n3]

TWS wasn't a true solo movie given that it had 2 major characters from Avengers in it (Natasha and Fury), and it was also coming off the back of the enormous success of that movie. Whereas, DoFP was coming off the back of First Class (which was positively received, but wasn't exactly a massive success financially), and The Wolverine, (which got average reviews and was the lowest grossing CBM of 2013).

DoFP managed to more than double First Class's gross. To put that into context, none of the Avengers sequels managed to make twice as much money as the movie that preceded them. I honestly think we could have seen Apocalypse hit a billion if it hadn't been such a dumpster fire.

Although I agree with your first paragraph, from your second paragraph it sounds like you're faulting the MCU for doing exceptionally well out of the gate and struggling (?) to double on those already highs, but at the same time you're heaping praise and rewarding Fox for doubling on their new film from sucking previously (see: First Class suckage).

 

[henzINNIT]

DoFP managed to more than double First Class's gross. To put that into context, none of the Avengers sequels managed to make twice as much money as the movie that preceded them. I honestly think we could have seen Apocalypse hit a billion if it hadn't been such a dumpster fire.

I'm not sure Apocalypse was ever going to beat DOFP's numbers without Jackman and the original cast.