Infinity War Infinity War Box Office (poll is for the first film)

[Darepool]

Avatar had little competition for months and was built around the 3D craze. The Force Awakens was a film 30+ years in the making with so many people hating the prequels and wanting a return to the original trilogy. This will be huge, but 2b? Those numbers are outliers.

If it matches the first Avengers it will be a massive accomplishment. Top 5 all time is nothing to be disappointed by.

 

[KangConquers]

Avatar had little competition for months and was built around the 3D craze. The Force Awakens was a film 30+ years in the making with so many people hating the prequels and wanting a return to the original trilogy. This will be huge, but 2b? Those numbers are outliers.

If it matches the first Avengers it will be a massive accomplishment. Top 5 all time is nothing to be disappointed by.

Just based on foreign box office growth over the last 6 years, an IW that equals A1's overall impact does $1.8 B. An IW1-2 that has the Deathly Hallows part 2 end of series bump gets to $2.1 B.

 

[Darepool]

Just based on foreign box office growth over the last 6 years, an IW that equals A1's overall impact does $1.8 B. An IW1-2 that has the Deathly Hallows part 2 end of series bump gets to $2.1 B.

It does, but I don't think it has the same box office impact based on the nature of the film. I think it will take more of an emotional toll on the audience and they won't be racing to get in line and see it again like A1, which was a more 80's swashbuckling adventure type film. I think it could match or even exceed the Avengers, but mainly due to expanded overseas markets. Based on the US track record the past decade, it'll be extremely tough to match the Avengers domestically. I think it could get 500 m + if all goes well, but not much more.

It's impact as a film may be as great, just not at the box office imho.

 

[Iceman]

There are some ridiculous options up there. Anyway this gonna make 1.6B at most. I'm predicting it will make the same amount as AOU. Yeah this is the culmination of a 10-year saga but it is just the first part and superhero team-up movies don't have the same unique and thrilling factor as they had in 2012.

Maybe not, but there has been an unprecedented interest in this trailer. Don’t think many predicted it was going to break the record by quite so much. I think there is a level of unpredictability to this one.

 

[ADollarADay]

My main concern is this movie's domestic legs. We know it's going to open big, but how about legs? Looking at the top 5 MCU domestic movies at the BO we get:

Avengers - 3x multiplier
AoU - 2.4x multiplier
IM3 - 2.35x multiplier
CW - 2.28x multiplier
GoTG2 - 2.66x multiplier

Most reasonable people I have seen are estimating IW to open at 200-225MM. If we assume that and take the lowest and highest possible values using the estimates and multipliers above we get

456MM < Infinity Wars < 675MM

Overseas could probably go up from AoU, maybe break 1B.

 

[p4poetic]

I feel like if the first two Abengers films were able to do 1.4 and 1.3 billion, this should do the same or more.

The teaser trailer is already catching up to AOU in views after a couple of days.

 

[Panacea]

I feel like if the first two Abengers films were able to do 1.4 and 1.3 billion, [...]

They did 1.5 and 1.4bn.

 

[KBX]

The Avengers making 1.5 blll is a big feat in itself so its hard for me to see IW making more than it. How many people who saw Guardians, Strange, and soon Black Panther that didn't see the first Avengers, but will see this one?

 

[007]

The Avengers making 1.5 blll is a big feat in itself so its hard for me to see IW making more than it. How many people who saw Guardians, Strange, and soon Black Panther that didn't see the first Avengers, but will see this one?

Me.

I didn't see the first avengers in the cinema and I regret that.

But I didn't really properly get into the mcu till I watched winter soldier.

 

[Zyraquis]

Me.

I didn't see the first avengers in the cinema and I regret that.

But I didn't really properly get into the mcu till I watched winter soldier.

Me too. I didn’t see the first avengers nor I realized the existence of MCU until years after when I saw iron man on a flight out of nothing else remotely interesting to see and was impressed by it, so i checked out some others as well. I only started going to see MCU movies in theater like a 2 or 3 years ago.

 

[scarlet-witch]

I went with 1.6-1.8B but I hope it does more.

 

[Iceman]

It does seem with Star Wars settling down after bursting out of the gate that MCU films are going to dominate the box office in future years, especially the event films.

 

[Mandon Knight]

$1.6-1.8 Billion I reckon.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Man I'd love it if this could hit $2B WW. That's a tall order though considering it would probably have to at least beat TA domestically which wouldn't be easy, but there is so much potential for this in OS markets, especially China. Star Wars just isn't connecting their at all and I'm sure for a lot of them this and probably JW2 will be the only BIG EVENT films of the year that they actually care about as far as imported foreign films go.

 

[m2k]

This will blow up the box office doors in China! Better believe it. If there's one thing China loves other than pandas and discounted electronics, it's movies with a huge ensemble of star studded characters.

 

[Iceman]

This is probably the biggest film ever in terms of size of ensemble, especially of the number of characters who are important. It's going to be very interesting seeing how high this goes in China.

 

[Iceman]

My main concern is this movie's domestic legs. We know it's going to open big, but how about legs? Looking at the top 5 MCU domestic movies at the BO we get:

Avengers - 3x multiplier
AoU - 2.4x multiplier
IM3 - 2.35x multiplier
CW - 2.28x multiplier
GoTG2 - 2.66x multiplier

Most reasonable people I have seen are estimating IW to open at 200-225MM. If we assume that and take the lowest and highest possible values using the estimates and multipliers above we get

456MM < Infinity Wars < 675MM

Overseas could probably go up from AoU, maybe break 1B.

Reasonable people would have got a lot of recent box office surprises completely wrong.

 

[Mandon Knight]

This is probably the biggest film ever in terms of size of ensemble, especially of the number of characters who are important. It's going to be very interesting seeing how high this goes in China.

Its gonna have to be about 3 hrs long to fit it all in....

 

[Iceman]

Its gonna have to be about 3 hrs long to fit it all in....

I'm expecting it to be 2.5 hrs plus.

 

[Krystal]

2hours 40 minutes is the absolute top I'd expect and much more likely at 2 1/2. I don't think they want any part of this to get bogged down.

Most of these characters -- Doctor Strange, Spider-Man, Ant-Man, GotG, BP -- are all going to be back in their own franchise movies within a couple of years.

They just need to let the main Avengers and Thanos have the bulk of the movie and the others stay in the "supporting" camp.

 

[Wildcard]

Its gonna have to be about 3 hrs long to fit it all in....

I can see it clocking in around two and a half hours or so but 3? I doubt that'll happen. There's always a small chance I could be wrong but I'd imagine they want the pacing to be solid as to avoid the film feeling too drawn out & overly long.

 

[Panacea]

As much as there are lots of character to get to, the story isn't that complex as far as we know. I don't think it needs to be stupidly long.

 

[Power Cosmic]

1.7 - 1.8 billion dollars. It can reach 2.0B, though.

 

[JOE]

I'm in the 1.6B - 1.8B area. Coming off Black Panther is genius, I think that movie is going to surprise everyone at the box office.

 

[Uncanny1]

So with Deadpool 2 now coming out May 18, 3 weeks Infiinty War, isn't this going to harm the box-office by taking away the bigger screen rooms like IMAX and Dolby Atmos from Avengers Infinity War?