"Make America Great Again!": The TRUMP Thread!!! - Part 3

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]507153[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]504305[/split]

 

[AnneFan]

Trump should win. Keyword should win purely based on the numbers and the massive populist cult of character following he has acquired which is why Iowa surprises me a little but he needs to win New Hampshire now. No question.

Yep. If he loses New Hampshire I'd say he's just about finished before it's even started.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

The thing with Cruz is he put a lot of resources into winning Iowa while Trump didn't. Based on an inside look at the race by the Washington Post, Cruz made Iowa a singular focus by setting a ground team with offices and phonebanks of volunteers. Trump, on the otherhand, didn't seem to to do this as much as Cruz and relied much more on holding big rallies, media interviews, and doing periodic stops in Iowa to get his support while focusing on future primaries where his support is stronger. Cruz targeted the state's large number of evangelicals to get the bulk of his support while Trump went after non-traditional voters who typically don't caucus. To get 24% while not investing heavily into a narrowly focused Iowa caucus strategy that Cruz and Rubio employed is actually pretty good for Trump. I'm just not sure Cruz can replicate his success in Iowa in many other locations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...8b0b94-c839-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html

 

[craigdbfan]

I'm just not sure Cruz can replicate his success in Iowa in many other locations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...8b0b94-c839-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html

One can only hope.

 

[SV Fan]

The thing with Cruz is he put a lot of resources into winning Iowa while Trump didn't. Based on an inside look at the race by the Washington Post, Cruz made Iowa a singular focus by setting a ground team with offices and phonebanks of volunteers. Trump, on the otherhand, didn't seem to to do this as much as Cruz and relied much more on holding big rallies, media interviews, and doing periodic stops in Iowa to get his support while focusing on future primaries where his support is stronger. Cruz targeted the state's large number of evangelicals to get the bulk of his support while Trump went after non-traditional voters who typically don't caucus. To get 24% while not investing heavily into a narrowly focused Iowa caucus strategy that Cruz and Rubio employed is actually pretty good for Trump. I'm just not sure Cruz can replicate his success in Iowa in many other locations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...8b0b94-c839-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html

What Trump did was rather impressive considering how much money, time and organization he lacked. That being said when your whole campaign is based on winners and losers, losing doesn't look so great. That being said I am guessing he wins New Hampshire and Iowa will be an afterthought(like it is most primaries)

 

[craigdbfan]

What Trump did was rather impressive considering how much money, time and organization he lacked. That being said when your whole campaign is based on winners and losers, losing doesn't look so great. That being said I am guessing he wins New Hampshire and Iowa will be an afterthought(like it is most primaries)

I agree. If anything this will inspire an even more fervent turnout in New Hampshire for Trump.

 

[Matt]

Cruz certainly went all-in on Iowa and it is unlikely that he can maintain that success or ride that momentum any more than Santorum and Huckabee could. That is why Rubio is the real story of the night.

 

[Taarna]

The thing with Cruz is he put a lot of resources into winning Iowa while Trump didn't. Based on an inside look at the race by the Washington Post, Cruz made Iowa a singular focus by setting a ground team with offices and phonebanks of volunteers. Trump, on the otherhand, didn't seem to to do this as much as Cruz and relied much more on holding big rallies, media interviews, and doing periodic stops in Iowa to get his support while focusing on future primaries where his support is stronger. Cruz targeted the state's large number of evangelicals to get the bulk of his support while Trump went after non-traditional voters who typically don't caucus. To get 24% while not investing heavily into a narrowly focused Iowa caucus strategy that Cruz and Rubio employed is actually pretty good for Trump. I'm just not sure Cruz can replicate his success in Iowa in many other locations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...8b0b94-c839-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html

No one said Cruz isn't a sharp debater or a grinder. Iowa's process is a bit different. The natives like to see the candidates in person. Cruz visited all 99 counties, and it paid off for him.

It really doesn't matter, though. The pace of the race quickness, and he can't invest that much time and effort into future states.

I actually think a 2nd place finish is good for Trump and his supporters.

 

[C. Lee]

I actually think a 2nd place finish is good for Trump and his supporters.

The old "Give 'em a medal just for showing up" theory

 

[Charlatan]

Looks like Rubio is going to be the nominee. He will probably pick up establishment support from those behind Bush and Kasich etc. once they drop out. I'm guessing the Koch bros and Rove's groups will rally behind him.

 

[The Shape]

I actually think a 2nd place finish is good for Trump and his supporters.

It is good for them, as it brings them back down to reality a bit and shows them that their fearless "leader" isn't the unbeatable winner that he constantly makes himself out to be.

Rubio will be the nominee.

 

[summerteeth]

Looks like Rubio is going to be the nominee. He will probably pick up establishment support from those behind Bush and Kasich etc. once they drop out. I'm guessing the Koch bros and Rove's groups will rally behind him.

And so many Republicans just gave a sigh of relief.

 

[Matt Mortem]

With Rubio only 1% behind Trump and Cruz's inability to be liked by anyone I think Rubio is walking away with the nomination. Cruz's victory was just a super aggressive ground game in Iowa, but there's no way in hell he's gonna stir up that kinda support in the entire nation.

 

[craigdbfan]

Trump winning NH by a landslide would certainly say something.

He does need a land game though. He's used social media/mainstream incredibly well but he does need a ground operation. That much is true.

Let me also say that Hilary sounds unhinged. Just saying as I'm watching her "rally" in NH. lol

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

Cruz was good at stirring up support among that local Republican base in Iowa, a lot of it from the Evangelicals. You can win Iowa by doing that, but not usually much else, ask Huckabee and Santorum. Cruz's problem will be getting support outside of those groups, which should show itself clearly come New Hampshire. Rubio should fare much better there.

So much for high turnout benefiting Trump though, huh? If the Republican base is turning out to vote against him like that, it doesnt bode well for his chances in an open primary/election.

 

[craigdbfan]

He's leading by double digits and the turnout for Trump in Iowa was actually massively impressive due to him only having an air game and nothing else.

Not to mention he shares almost zero values with them. He did well when it's put into perspective.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

He's leading by double digits and the turnout for Trump in Iowa was actually massively impressive due to him only having an air game and nothing else.

Not to mention he shares almost zero values with them. He did well when it's put into perspective.

See I don't really buy that. Trump's face is on the news almost 24/7 at this point. He's the most visible Presidential candidate, perhaps in history if you take his celebrity into account. His exposure is basically at the saturation point right now, so I'm not quite sure that him holding more local rallys/meetups/town halls helps him all that much. It's a diminishing return after a certain point.

As for his "double digit" lead, I think we saw last night how suspect and inaccurate that opinion polling can be, given where he was in Iowa polls before the caucus.

 

[craigdbfan]

Let me also say that Trump is this whole presidential race. Highest ratings ever for a caucus and that's not because of Ted or Marco.

Polls that came out today say that Trump is now leading in NH by 33% so now support has gone even higher. Cruz is at 11%. If Trump somehow doesn't win NH that will be the true surprise there.

 

[kedrell]

Cruz hasn't figured out that it isn't 1980 anymore and he is not Ronald Reagan. Reagan was the leader of a union(SAG) prior to being California governor and then president. That undoubtedly helped him with the blue collar union voters who were a strong part of the Democrat base and how he was able to siphon off some for such a landslide.

 

[craigdbfan]

See I don't really buy that. Trump's face is on the news almost 24/7 at this point. He's the most visible Presidential candidate, perhaps in history if you take his celebrity into account. His exposure is basically at the saturation point right now, so I'm not quite sure that him holding more local rallys/meetups/town halls helps him all that much. It's a diminishing return after a certain point.

As for his "double digit" lead, I think we saw last night how suspect and inaccurate that opinion polling can be, given where he was in Iowa polls before the caucus.

The Iowa lead was within the margin of error and that's exactly how much Ted's win was by.

The lead in NH is far beyond anything in Iowa not to mention that the NH primaries are far more inclusive as Independents can vote for whoever. Perfect for a populist and media savvy candidate like Trump.

So if Trump loses in NH then and only then can we can say these polls are absolutely useless.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Trump's chances in New Hampshire depend on what happens with the four establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie). If they split the vote, Trump will win New Hampshire. If the establishment rallies behind Rubio off of his impressive performance in Iowa, things will get interesting.

 

[Kane52630]

 

[X Knight]

NH will be key for Trump. He needs to have a decisive win and then go on to win SC.

if his huge NH lead erodes over the next week, and Trump just ekes out a win, or worse, finishes 2nd again, then that could prove to be the fatal blow for his campaign. It starts to erode his narrative of being a winner.

It will also be interesting to see how much momentum Rubio can ride out of Iowa.

 

[Duran Man]

I need Trump to win New Hampshire. I'm not ready for this foolishness to end.