Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Man Friday's drop was harsh, and with 2 new movies coming out next week it's only going to get worse. Wouldn't bet on 300 mil right now.

 

No it's not going to drop worse next weekend. The drop is going to be better like it is for almost all movies. The hyperbole of this post is just as bad as anyone pretending this drop isn't bad.

 

290 is more realistic but it has a good chance at making 300 domestically.

 

The bigger question mark is overseas. Is 700 million still a guarantee? Not sure.

 

the overseas total should always be at least twice of domestic.

 

It woudl have been at least that if it was marketed well.. but since it wasn't, hard to tell... if WOM is not as great as we liked it to be, then no...

Studios that understood the importance of the OS market is raking it in now.. WB doesn't seem to get it yet...

 

Right now IMO, 600 WW is on lock.
I personally don't see it hitting 700 WW.

 

The movie is doing great overseas so far.

 

my calculations show 258m - 260m by end of July 4th weekend (will adjust as figures come in) .. that's 4 weeks in release .. just some statistical math all things being equal .. thinking it won't pass 250m domestic for a 12 week run is simply absurd .. not to mention ignorant .. pardon the bluntness

300m domestic is still more than possible

 

If it does pass $300 million it'll just be a couple of weeks later than previously thought. So instead of week 6/7 it'll be around week 8/9.

 

I think the last significant weekend is the four day 4th of July weekend. Then it will crawl along. I don't see 300.

 

Here's a pretty strong evidence that MOS's huge drop is due to the crowded space and have very little to do with it's WOM or Quality...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

You can see the day to day comparison between Spiderman / Ironman / MOS

MOS was way, way higher every day since opening till thursday (thurs was not that much higher due to some TV event in the US for MOS).. but the sudden drop on Fri indicates that the competition just took it's legs out from under it..

This is truly, IMO, is a problem with the release date...

There is no let up from now on too: If MU and WWZ can take out that much leg from under MOS, think what

Next week: White House Down / The Heat combination would do?
Week after: Despicable Me / Lone Ranger (the most potent combination yet)
Then July 12th: Grown Ups / Pacific Rim

Not that MOS didn't already do very well.. but just sad to see $100M vanish due to some scheduling mishap...

 

I ask again, why did I come back into this thread? You have people saying it won't get to 250mil, which is absurd and now it's not doing good overseas eventhough it is? Instead of just saying bad drop, must mean the movie has some mixed and or bad word of mouth and the competition hurt it, it's oh my god, is it even going to hit 250mil?!! Oh no it's the biggest bomb of the year!" Meanwhile I haven't heard one who person who enjoys the film say that this is a good or even expected drop. Even I expected 45mil and I was one of the few not pretending it didn't have competition.

 

Yea but its not like WB didn't know what was coming in the schedule. If your movie is a good as it is then WOM should be able to carry it and still thrive in spite of competition. Sure any movie can look better if had 3 or 4 weeks to itself.

 

Well WB held SR in theaters for like half a year until it crossed 200M so don't be surprised if they do the same thing with MoS and 300M.

 

This always happens. After last OW, you had people overreact and project it for 350-400 mill. Now after a big second week drop, people will overreact the other way

 

Just goes to prove that WB is not all that intelligent.. you don't release your biggest blockbuster that have the highest potential to make the money money on the crowdest time of year.. they should learn from Cameron.. he releases his movie at year end, and let them rake in the money for months on end..

If I had to guess, the mistake of releasing MOS at this point in time is costing them upwards of 200M (including international sales.. ) Remember, screens in the international market is also taken over by newer movies...

 

No matter what happens with the box office from now on, WB is going forward with Cavill as Superman. To me. That's what I care about most.

 

Exactly. It was a lock to make 400mil last weekend and now it's not even going to make 250mil. Hype Hyperbole at it's finest. It's not enough to just tell it like it is.

 

People are just adjusting totals based on performance.

 

Meh ... it's a combination of both. If the WOM was off the charts, it would transcend the scheduling complications in a way that there would've been less drop this weekend. I mean let's be real here, Superman vs. a toon vs. a zombie movie. At the very least the film should've been able to solidify the 2nd spot this weekend imo. People will argue the Brad Pitt factor, but that's a mixed bag in terms of opening weekend turnouts for his movies as of late.

 

Sad that people think it won't get to 250 million. I believe it will get close to 300 and maybe a little over. Looking like a 42 million weekend. that is aroudn 210 million after 10 days. If you look at IM2, it did 312 million and was right around 211 after 10 days and also had a holiday at 4 weeks (Memorial day) so I can see MOS doing very, very similar numbers. I am putting it at 305 million Domestic and 445 int for 750 worldwide.

 

I know people don't seem to get this, but May =/= June. Summer weekdays are always higher than May.