Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[samsnee]

With all this arguing over box office, you'd think people here personally wrote checks financing the budget.

 

[SheikhooMan]

Two blockbusters opening is not enough of an excuse for a drop in the 70% range. SR didn't even have a drop that steep despite going up against stiff competition of its own.

MOS had $168,790,947 after 1 week.
SR had $170,967,498 after 3 weeks.

The %drop doesn't matter it's the gross that counts.

 

[sf2]

Big drop off this weekend is expected - why am I not surprised?

And for anyone who wants to say "But it had a lot of competition!" - Superman Returns also had big competition (Pirates of the Caribbean 2) but managed to drop 58% the following weekend. 71% is VERY steep no matter how you slice it.

Very true. The early projection on friday was 19M. But tbe actual is only 13M. That's huge different here. Is the number r correct?

 

[Pickleweasel]

It'll probably do similar numbers next weekend as it does this weekend

White House down and the heat are not going to do numbers

 

[marcvader]

With all this arguing over box office, you'd think people here personally wrote checks financing the budget.

At the end of the day it's all about Dick measuring.

 

[Tra-El]

This isn't some no name franchise. It's Superman. It's the franchise. Everything was clicking. The trailers were there, the marketing was there, the interest was there. It was the most talked about movie all summer. People were ready for it. That's why it opened huge.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see how you can place the blame on WWZ or MU. Those films shouldn't be competition for Superman. A great Superman movie that captured the hearts and minds of the public like the original did would have absolutely dominated the box office from here on out.

The buzz for this movie stopped once everyone got a chance to see it. It's that simple.

Wow are you HUGELY underestimating the power of the children audience when it comes to Pixar films. These types of animation films are just as highly popular and more recognizable than the super-hero genre today in their own respect.

Brad Pitt is a cinema legend and a story of destruction of that in Man of Steel. You have to respect these two movies and understand there is reasoning behind their big opening that would cut into Man of Steel's record breaking opening weekend. Once it all smoothes out, there's room for MU and WWZ to have a dropoff next weekend, which could give back profit and play right into our hands. People need to chillax a bit.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

At the end of the day it's all about Dick measuring.

Oh Lois

 

[Ultimatehero]

MOS had $168,790,947 after 1 week.
SR had $170,967,498 after 3 weeks.

The %drop doesn't matter it's the gross that counts.

A movie, especially a sequel, makes most of it's gross opening weekend - "it's front loaded"

MOS does the same - "bad word of mouth"

It might just be me having looked at every reboot that came out long before and it doing leaps and bounds over what I originally had predicted because of that trend. But, it still speaks volumes to me that it is the highest grossing re-boot made in the last ten to twenty years. And that it will be in the top five, if not third highest grossing movie of the year.

Everyone is so fast to say "but, it's Superman!" Okay if the name alone speaks for itself - then why the hell wouldn't it perform like a sequel and similarly be more front-loaded? For those saying "it's name should stand for itself," I've noticed that they are remarkably dismissing what also goes along with that and what goes along for many many sequels traditionally which is front-loading. If Superman speaks for itself, what's to prove that what happens with dozens of sequels didn't happen here?

I'm sorry, but when we are looking at 290 mil most likely domestic and a heck of a lot worldwide (last I heard in the 700s), I just can't see that as a bad number. Because I never saw it making a billion dollars. Not this soon out of the gate and not for a reboot. It's soaring past my best hopes.

 

[STARMAN]

It should stabilize Saturday but there may be another big drop-off Sunday because it did unusually well last Sunday.

I feel like I'm analyzing a patient's vital signs.

 

[robot]

robot the problem with your argument is that you're starting with the (completely debatable) premise that MoS is a) definitely an awesome movie with b) great word of mouth and working backwards from there. you're simply choosing the evidence that tends to support your decidedly unproven assumptions and ignoring everything else. Its an inherently weak and flawed rhetorical strategy that is the opposite of persuasive. sorry.

i won't even bother addressing the glaring problems with your whole "scheduling mishap" theory. Res ipsa loquitur.

The only assumption here is your assumption on how I came to my conclusions...

If you think that losing screens doesn't matter and that losing time slots doesn't matter and that competition from 2 blockbuster doesn't matter, then using your own logic, you're starting from the assumption that 'this movie sucks and wom is not there' and then make your argumetn from there..

and to quote you:

i won't even bother addressing the glaring problems with your whole "whatever" theory. Res ipsa loquitur

btw: Just to set the record straight, both your a) and b) were totally off...

a) I thought the movie was great for me, but with tons of flaws which i can see thru but mixed for the GA (said this many times in multiple posts if you cared to read them before putting words in other's mouths)
b) I always maintained wom was mixed in this movie...

 

[Spaz]

The current projection for the weekend over at BoxOffice.com based on the numbers coming out of Friday is $43.5. That's 63% drop from last weekend. I'd say that's pretty solid given the comp.

 

[Caode]

As we all know... it was only ever going to contend 2nd place this weekend against World War Z, which has been a massive surprise, WWZ was expected to be a disaster across the board - it's been a surprise critically and with the general audience. The film is going up against two new blockbusters so I expected the numbers to be significantly lower this weekend but the American box office isn't the interesting part any more - it'll be a huge success there at the end of it's run anyway. The real talking point this weekend is the International box office - that's where I'm expecting huge numbers to come in from.


That's all probably already been said on here anyway, and probably in a much better way

 

[Spaz]

Very true. The early projection on friday was 19M. But tbe actual is only 13M. That's huge different here. Is the number r correct?

It was actually 14-16 from Rth over at Box Office who tends to be much more accurate. Nineteen was the high end/best case from a much less consistent source.

 

[STARMAN]

The 71% drop is for Friday. Not the weekend. But the overall drop is going to be steeper than the original projections going into the weekend.

I don't know why I keep following this daily box office stuff. I haven't done it with other comic book movies. Yet I can't stop myself.

 

[Liam_H]

$17-19M was basically Nikki making up s**t. She's hardly ever reliable.

 

[robot]

$17-19M was basically Nikki making up s**t. She's hardly ever reliable.

I think the 17-19M figure would have been right on the ballpart if WWZ totally bombed, or that 2 blockbusters didn't open together... if MOS was only up against MU, then 17-19 is very reasonable.. and if MU didn't open, i think it'll easily be above 20M.

 

[Adder]

The movie has 56% on RT. I have not watched the movie but that rating means mixed reactions.

So who's right?? The 56% or the 44%? The critics can not be right because they are divided.

This statement doesn't make any sense.

56% is rotten but also look at the the average critic rating 6.3/10. ask fanboys and they'll tell you MOS is a 9/10. based on 71% drop i's say 6/10 is about right. 71% is worse then green lanters drop

 

[Liam_H]

I'm not buying that until it actually happened. That would be a 140-170% increase from Thursday which usually doesn't happen in June, May sure but not June. I know NBA Finals depressed things but that's still pushing it.

 

[Adder]

71% was the drop for the 2nd FRIDAY .. IM3 dropped 72% on its 2nd Friday .. get ur facts straight before shootin' ur mouth off

wrong.
http://movies.yahoo.com/news/box-office-brad-pitts-world-war-z-stunning-153202518.html

 

[Adder]

This isn't some no name franchise. It's Superman. It's the franchise. Everything was clicking. The trailers were there, the marketing was there, the interest was there. It was the most talked about movie all summer. People were ready for it. That's why it opened huge.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see how you can place the blame on WWZ or MU. Those films shouldn't be competition for Superman. A great Superman movie that captured the hearts and minds of the public like the original did would have absolutely dominated the box office from here on out.

The buzz for this movie stopped once everyone got a chance to see it. It's that simple.

you're talking too much sense though

 

[JangoNate]

wrong.
http://movies.yahoo.com/news/box-office-brad-pitts-world-war-z-stunning-153202518.html

What's wrong?

 

[Tony Stark]

It was actually 14-16 from Rth over at Box Office who tends to be much more accurate. Nineteen was the high end/best case from a much less consistent source.

Nikki is never going to live that prediction down. There were people about to slit their wrists on the BoT forums when the number jumped down. Most thought her number was BS, but when it was up someone joked, "what if the numbers come in at 12-13?"

 

[Hammer!]

Biggest thing hurting Supes this weekend is that WWZ and MU are getting much better reviews with the critics. The general audiences seem to respond better to those films as well (WWZ at 86%, MU at 90%, MOS at 82%). For some reason RT has been stuck on 81,641 user ratings for a week now on MOS. Could WB be blocking the ratings from spiraling downward, as user reviews tend to do after a few weeks?

 

[JangoNate]

56% is rotten but also look at the the average critic rating 6.3/10. ask fanboys and they'll tell you MOS is a 9/10. based on 71% drop i's say 6/10 is about right. 71% is worse then green lanters drop

But Green Lantern only brought in $51 million the opening weekend. It didn't have far to drop in the first place.

 

[robot]

I'm not buying that until it actually happened. That would be a 140-170% increase from Thursday which usually doesn't happen in June, May sure but not June. I know NBA Finals depressed things but that's still pushing it.

First: You completely blew up the Wed/Thurs figures by not caring about the NBA finals... just go here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=06&p=.htm

Those are all movies opened in June, look at their wed > thurs numbers... they are usually off by about 5% up or down.

And their fri/fri drop is below 60% mostly.. MOS dropped 71% fri/fri..

When all other variables remain the same, but that you introduce 2 major blockbusters, then that is the likely reason for the unusual high drop for MOS...