Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

[spider-neil]

Oh and on the subject of ASM I think the sequel will be massive.

No spoilers. Why?

 

[spider-neil]

I thought I was justified with my billion prediction with the opening weekend gross but it seems MoS was ridiculously front loaded or the competition have completely cut it's legs off.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't see how a billion off a $116m debut would be a justified prediction?

Even in the estimates that were counting in the walmart take i still figured $800m was the high mark. You don't need just good legs to get to a billion off that debut but great legs.

 

[JOE]

This^!

I want MOS to do as well as it possibly can, but these 800M predictions + were just too over the top. I tried to warn everyone...

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I don't see how a billion off a $116m debut would be a justified prediction?

Even in the estimates that were counting in the walmart take i still figured $800m was the high mark. You don't need just good legs to get to a billion off that debut but great legs.

Like Avatar.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

^THIS

even my mom said where's toby

Casino Royale came out 4 years after Die Another Day.

 

[Project862006]

yeah you need avatar type of legs that film opened up with just 77 million OW yet in it's 3rd weekeend it was still made 67 million

 

[Bruce Malone]

I spent some time in this thread here going back before the film came out trying to bring people back to reality, because i knew they'd set themselves up for disappointment if they all thought 1 billion was the be all end all.

$1 billion is not some mythical benchmark a film needs to reach to be validated as a sucess (unless its cost is $300 million or something).

People have warped sensibilities now of what a successful film should make. I predicted $700m as a high end goal way back and i'd consider it a success if it reaches that now.

Like Avatar.

Thanks.

 

[Red Mask]

What is sad about it? It's at $210 mill Domestic and $400 million WW in just 10 days. In a week or so it may be outpacing WWZ again. And it won't be long before it overhauls FF6 and STID.

I had expected it to be at number one for much longer.

 

[Sup3rman81]

But he isn't the most popular.
Smallville had like 3 million (US) viewers towards the end of its run, it's hardly TBBT.
Chris Nolan would have helped the BO but necessarily to $1 billion.

Comparing a top level network comedy like TBBT against a mid level network like WB/CW isnt very accurate. TBBT can appeal to a wider range of fans anyways. Its really a horrible comparison

 

[Sup3rman81]

I had expected it to be at number one for much longer.

it was never going to win back to back weeks with the position WB put it in. There are way too many good movies coming out in the next few weeks. MOS should have come out July 17th and then it would have had 2 or maybe 3 weeks at number 1. WB wanted the OW record and knew it would be big for Fathers Day. From all accounts WB is very happy with MOS and its BO so far and the way the GA and fans have responded. I am not sure how WB will handle its DC movie line with Rominov leaving though.

 

[Rev]

I had expected it to be at number one for much longer.

So it is possible your expectations were not realistic considering Monsters University and World War
Z were coming out on Man of Steel's 2nd weekend. It would have been nice if it did but that's the problem with expectations. We are subject to disappointment when they are not met or exceeded.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I thought I was justified with my billion prediction with the opening weekend gross but it seems MoS was ridiculously front loaded or the competition have completely cut it's legs off.

it was front loaded to some degree because of the hype but WOM is still great. it was two overperforming summer movies that appeal to MOS fans that cost it to drop so much. Had MOS went up against just WWZ it would have done 55-60m, against MU is say probably the same maybe less 48-53m. with both a Pg-13 zombie movie and a kids movie playing, it cut right into MOS numbers. 41.2 isnt that bad though and OS MOS beat them both and is still doing great

 

[Sup3rman81]

This^!

I want MOS to do as well as it possibly can, but these 800M predictions + were just too over the top. I tried to warn everyone...

800m was not over the top...1B was for sure. MOS 2 can break 1B no problem, possibly even compete with Avengers. I still think WW MOS can reach 800m or at least 700+m

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

600-700 m WW would make MOS Warner Bros' second biggest on-going franchise.

omg wut a flop!

 

[JOE]

People did not understand me when I said that Monsters University was going to crush MOS. June 21st - June 23rd is what I'm talking about. This was not a head to head battle. MOS was on it's second week, MU was at it's release. However, MOS didn't claim second either. I don't see it getting any better domestically, it's all downhill from here. Like I said before several times, it's all about the OS box office.

 

[JOE]

800m was not over the top...1B was for sure. MOS 2 can break 1B no problem, possibly even compete with Avengers. I still think WW MOS can reach 800m or at least 700+m

It literally needs to double everything it's made to reach 800M. I don't see it happening. Especially not when... Dare I say it?... The movie that will crush everything and anything in it's path... Despicable Me 2.

Also, 9/9 on Rotten Tomatoes. This movie will break any legs MOS has or think it had.

 

[spider-neil]

It literally needs to double everything it's made to reach 800M. I don't see it happening. Especially not when... Dare I say it?... The movie that will crush everything and anything in it's path... Despicable Me 2.

Also, 9/9 on Rotten Tomatoes. This movie will break any legs MOS has or think it had.

How close is How to Train your Dragon 2 to AM2? HtTyD 2 is going to crush everything close to it.

 

[mc7791]

I have seen some posts on different sites that MOS made almost 360 mil WW in 9 days. Where are those numbers coming from? It has made 283 mil WW in its first 2 weeks of release. Where are people getting this 360 mil number?

 

[Rowsdower!]

I have seen some posts on different sites that MOS made almost 360 mil WW in 9 days. Where are those numbers coming from? It has made 283 mil WW in its first 2 weeks of release. Where are people getting this 360 mil number?

BOM has it at nearly $400M, and I believe that's without China's numbers:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superman2012.htm

 

[MrMaooz]

I have seen some posts on different sites that MOS made almost 360 mil WW in 9 days. Where are those numbers coming from? It has made 283 mil WW in its first 2 weeks of release. Where are people getting this 360 mil number?

It's at 400 mil or higher now.

 

[Marvin]

It literally needs to double everything it's made to reach 800M. I don't see it happening. Especially not when... Dare I say it?... The movie that will crush everything and anything in it's path... Despicable Me 2.

Also, 9/9 on Rotten Tomatoes. This movie will break any legs MOS has or think it had.

All it needs to do is somewhat better than ASM. Which I think is highly likely given the way things are going and the remaining markets.
ASM
$262Dom
$490Intl
$752WW

A week and a half and MoS is at $400WW
Different circumstances(never seen a film face this much comp with that low an RTscore) but no need to for the people to believe in their numbers to give up hope just yet. 18 weeks to go.
I know that between russia and japan that will be another 100 added looking at how other films of this sort behave. And WB has those two regions later in the schedule.

As for DM, I don't get where this hype is coming form. Unless it's Shrek or Toy Story, it's not going to crush everything(seeing as how even those didn't). More to the point, adults actually and honestly like that series? Cause if not, you are looking at the typical animated crowd.

 

[Project862006]

now i do wish it did better in it's second weekend i was hoping for a 60 million second week not 41

 

[Liam_H]

That OS total is with China's number. BOM updates total but for total breakdown of each country isn't always accurate.

 

[Shazam]

It's down to number 3 already??? I think those critic reviews hurt it a little bit.