Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Poni_Boy]

Domestic: $219,812,000 x 60% = 131,887

+ Foreign: $188,300,000 x 30% = + 56,490

= Worldwide: $408,112,745 = $188,377

That is roughly what this movie has made for WB at this time not including points for Nolan and Peters.

I was of the impession that at least 85-90% of it's budget was already covered by tie ins and merch.

No. The 170 mil they made with the cross promotions aren't added to the box office they take away from the $150+ mil marketing budget and distribution costs (abo $30 - 50 mil)

 

[br0adband]

A movie just "breaking even" to most degrees (meaning you look at the announced budget + marketing costs = the break even point) and think "Oh, it's made it's money back" and that would be wrong. The traditional formula in Hollywood is usually 2.5 to 3x the actual cost/money spent total (budget+marketing+etc) for a movie to "break even" anymore.

If the movie was $225 million for the actual budget + $150 million or more for the marketing (still ongoing, still quite heavy) = ~$375-400 million, then MoS isn't going to make any real money aka profits till it gets close to and surpasses the $900 million point which I think it'll actually do when it truly opens worldwide. It just opened in Australia yesterday (or today since they're about 18 hours ahead of me and it's 10PM Pacific at the moment) so that should boost number, and it's still got a lot of "growing" to do worldwide.

I would have voted for $900 million in the poll but it's closed - I think it'll get there in time.

 

[Showtime]

Domestic: $219,812,000 x 60% = 131,887

+ Foreign: $188,300,000 x 30% = + 56,490

= Worldwide: $408,112,745 = $188,377

That is roughly what this movie has made for WB at this time not including points for Nolan and Peters.

Right, and internationally after some of the inordinate amount of expenses you could even be looking at 15% of the cut. It's crazy.

 

[Poni_Boy]

A movie just "breaking even" to most degrees (meaning you look at the announced budget + marketing costs = the break even point) and think "Oh, it's made it's money back" and that would be wrong. The traditional formula in Hollywood is usually 2.5 to 3x the actual cost/money spent total (budget+marketing+etc) for a movie to "break even" anymore..

Bingo. The standard formula

 

[Showtime]

A movie just "breaking even" to most degrees (meaning you look at the announced budget + marketing costs = the break even point) and think "Oh, it's made it's money back" and that would be wrong. The traditional formula in Hollywood is usually 2.5 to 3x the actual cost/money spent total (budget+marketing+etc) for a movie to "break even" anymore.

If the movie was $225 million for the actual budget + $150 million or more for the marketing (still ongoing, still quite heavy) = ~$375-400 million, then MoS isn't going to make any real money aka profits till it gets close to and surpasses the $900 million point which I think it'll actually do when it truly opens worldwide. It just opened in Australia yesterday (or today since they're about 18 hours ahead of me and it's 10PM Pacific at the moment) so that should boost number, and it's still got a lot of "growing" to do worldwide.

I would have voted for $900 million in the poll but it's closed - I think it'll get there in time.

YES. You get it.

 

[Morcego]

You know that doesn't mean it actually "made it's money back" right?

Considering his ''reaction'', I don't think he did. LOL.

Maybe he thought I was saying MOS didn't made 400M.

 

[InJustice]

You know that doesn't mean it actually "made it's money back" right?

Ah, wasn't sure if he was debating the figure or the money-making aspect of it...which looks like it's just about broke even (or extremely small profit).

 

[Showtime]

Ah, wasn't sure if he was debating the figure or the money-making aspect of it...which looks like it's just about broke even (or extremely small profit).

That isn't really how it works though, unfortunately for the studios. You can't just say "Ok the Marketing was this and the budget was this, but we made this." That's fuzzy math.

This is how it really works. This is real life for the studios, outside of these forums, where real accounting lives...

 

[Poni_Boy]

Right, and internationally after some of the inordinate amount of expenses you could even be looking at 15% of the cut. It's crazy.

What irks me is the 5 points Peters is making off of the world wide gross. Nolan is supposedly getting 5 points too, but at least he earned it. 5 points off of a 700 mil gross is 15 million dollars. If you add that to Nolan's point that takes the movie from 700 mil (hypothetically) to 670 mil right off the bat

 

[Bruce Malone]

A movie just "breaking even" to most degrees (meaning you look at the announced budget + marketing costs = the break even point) and think "Oh, it's made it's money back" and that would be wrong. The traditional formula in Hollywood is usually 2.5 to 3x the actual cost/money spent total (budget+marketing+etc) for a movie to "break even" anymore.

If the movie was $225 million for the actual budget + $150 million or more for the marketing (still ongoing, still quite heavy) = ~$375-400 million, then MoS isn't going to make any real money aka profits till it gets close to and surpasses the $900 million point which I think it'll actually do when it truly opens worldwide. It just opened in Australia yesterday (or today since they're about 18 hours ahead of me and it's 10PM Pacific at the moment) so that should boost number, and it's still got a lot of "growing" to do worldwide.

I would have voted for $900 million in the poll but it's closed - I think it'll get there in time.

$900m as the first profit point is much too high. TASM cost $230m production wise and conservatively it's marketing budget would be about $100m. Yet sony was more than happy with its $750m total.

Enough to option 3 sequels essentially.

 

[JangoNate]

I'm glad somebody knows what's going on with the numbers. I don't have a clue, personally. So what would you say the magic box off ice number is for MOS, knowing all that info?

 

[Sun_Down]

I was of the impession that at least 85-90% of it's budget was already covered by tie ins and merch. Am I way off? Also there is still a final international tally to be had. Plus a blu ray release... Plus VOD... Plus broadcast/cable rights to negotiate.... So is'nt the term "the rest is gravy" something that applys here? Seems like a lot of gravy to me. Have I missed anything?

Yeah, I think you're off.

Variety reported that the total budget was $375M: $225M production plus $150 in promotions. As with most big movies, the "production budget" alone is usually well below the actual budget.

With studios taking in about 1/2 of ticket sales (I believe), they would need about $650M to break even.

The part about the product tie-ins and merchandising is where it gets hazy. There were reports that they had received $160M from advertisers from product placement/tie-ins. Now, I'm not sure what exactly that meant. If it meant that they literally took in $160M from other companies after spending $150M on ads, then the effective marketing budget would be -$10M. In that case, the effective total budget is about $215M, in which case, they've nearly broken even already.

But I really don't know what to make of the reports about advertising/tie-in revenue, both in terms of the amount and how it would be calculated in the budget.

EDIT: looks like some more informed people have chimed in already.

 

[br0adband]

aka "It's all about the bottom line...

 

[Showtime]

What irks me is the 5 points Peters is making off of the world wide gross. Nolan is supposedly getting 5 points too, but at least he earned it. 5 points off of a 700 mil gross is 15 million dollars. If you add that to Nolan's point that takes the movie from 700 mil (hypothetically) to 670 mil right off the bat

Peters. Smart or lucky?

 

[Poni_Boy]

That isn't really how it works though, unfortunately for the studios. You can't just say "Ok the Marketing was this and the budget was this, but we made this." That's fuzzy math.

This is how it really works. This is real life for the studios, outside of these forums, where real accounting lives...

Which means Order of the Pheonix, which cost $150 mil to make and about $150 mil to market, broke even with $615 mil worldwide gross.

That's some clear cut perspective right there

Peters. Smart or lucky?

Smart is the sense that he KNEW the potential of these films in the long run. Lucky because it could have gone either way. But regardless, he had NO risk and is raking in tons

 

[Poni_Boy]

So what would you say the magic box off ice number is for MOS, knowing all that info?

To break even based on the Order of the Phoenix formula? 725 - 740 mil worldwide. But that's not including 3D distribution (more $) and inflation

 

[Sun_Down]

Interesting read on the subject of budget/profits/etc.: http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

 

[InJustice]

To break even based on the Order of the Phoenix formula? 725 - 740 mil worldwide. But that's not including 3D distribution (more $) and inflation

Well damn, that's clear cut perspective there.

 

[Morcego]

So basically it has to reach $450+ OS?

 

[X Knight]

eh, I just know if I ever make a movie ( which would be never....lol ), I'll be sure to make it for $1 with marketing cost of $1.

therefore, anything it makes beyond $2 would be profit.

 

[ares834]

Which means Order of the Pheonix, which cost $150 mil to make and about $150 mil to market, broke even with $615 mil worldwide gross.

That's some clear cut perspective right there

Sheesh.

If Harry Potter can't get numbers up into the black you gotta wonder how studios not named Disney are able to make money at all.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Sheesh.

If Harry Potter can't get numbers up into the black you gotta wonder how studios not named Disney are able to make money at all.

See now why WB is so hesitant to make a JL movie? They aren't Disney, who can take a catastrophic loss like John Carter and shrug it off like it didn't even exist. GL hurt WB badly. If it wasn't for The Hangover 2 they would have been in the red. Their only truly successful DC property right now is Batman. If they make a JL or WF movie and it's not well received, they've lost that for a few years too.

 

[Morcego]

If only they could've gotten GL right...

 

[rayc1971]

its tracking at 20mill this weekend that will put it near 250mill with 4th of july weekend coming up I still think it can hit 300mill domestic

 

[Silver Surfer]

Damn! This page is a harsh dose of reality. So if MOS doesn't reach 750 mil it won't make a single dime for WB? and we can kiss our sequel goodbye?

F Green Lantern for F'in everything up.