Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Snark88]

Wait wtf? I was under the impression that MoS needs to hit the 600million mark WW in order to be considered a financial success for WB. But now people are saying it needs to make 750mil WW in order to turn in a profit?

Are you sure you guys know what you're talking about? You're all over the place here.

 

[JangoNate]

4th of July week will be big for most movies out. And Lone Ranger isnt even a threat. DM2 will destroy it, LR is tracking at around a 45m OW. I would think MU, WWZ, and MOS will see increase at the BO then drop off the following week. I think WHD will plummet faster than WWZ was expected. The Heat should stick around for a couple of weeks.

The funny thing to me is that I was upset at DMC when it came out because it was a big factor in hurting the BO of Returns and I liked it and want a sequel. Though MOS will in no way shape or form beat LR the weekend it's released, it could end up performing better overall and have the bigger OW. Being that it is from the same team that brought us POTC, that can feel a little bit like justice.

 

[kalhawj]

Wait wtf? I was under the impression that MoS needs to hit the 600million mark WW in order to be considered a financial success for WB. But now people are saying it needs to make 750mil WW in order to turn in a profit?

Are you sure you guys know what you're talking about? You're all over the place here.

Don't pay attention those claim it has to hit 750 to turn profit... That's absurd... MOS made 170 million in promotion sponsor. That money cover all of MOS marketing cost before it release. Now what's left is its budget of 225. As of now it has 400+ mill WW. It is doing just fine and is profiting as is... People just trying to put the doom scare on MOS fans.

 

[Marvin]

As intimidating as those numbers may seem, people should understand that they apply to most other films too.

Hollywood seems to be doing just fine even with their funky returns.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

4th of July week will be big for most movies out. And Lone Ranger isnt even a threat. DM2 will destroy it, LR is tracking at around a 45m OW. I would think MU, WWZ, and MOS will see increase at the BO then drop off the following week. I think WHD will plummet faster than WWZ was expected. The Heat should stick around for a couple of weeks.

You do realize that it will still take screen away right? It will be big for most movies, but MoS has already lost a lot of screens. Is going to lose a lot more these next two weeks as 4 big movies open.

Use some logic here.

 

[kalhawj]

MOS breaks 30mil milestone in UK
http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news

 

[Sup3rman81]

You do realize that it will still take screen away right? It will be big for most movies, but MoS has already lost a lot of screens. Is going to lose a lot more these next two weeks as 4 big movies open.

Use some logic here.

MOS opened with 4,207 theaters and still is at the number. It is not known if it has lost any screens or not. Can you check where a movie has lost screens.

 

[KingKane88]

You do realize that it will still take screen away right? It will be big for most movies, but MoS has already lost a lot of screens. Is going to lose a lot more these next two weeks as 4 big movies open.

Use some logic here.

MOS should have released a week earlier, common sense from anyone's standpoint but WB's obviously. Who ever is in charge of there releases needs to be fired, because they have been so off with so many movie's over the years! It really does boggle my mind!

A company throwing millions into these movies they are making still can't figure out the right time to release them!???

 

[Notrip]

Man of Steel will have made around 245m going into July (after 17 days) will make 35-55m more and end its run around 280-300m domestic. THE TOP grossing reboot domestically and third best origin domestically of all-time and third best origin internationally of all-time behind both Spidey's. Not bad at all, so CAN the crap stop about MOS2 being put on the shelf or a new creative team coming in. MOS2 is gonna happen and Zach Synder WILL DIRECT with GOYER writing (although he may get help, which is fine.)

 

[Notrip]

MOS should have released a week earlier, common sense from anyone's standpoint but WB's obviously. Who ever is in charge of there releases needs to be fired, because they have been so off with so many movie's over the years! It really does boggle my mind!

A company throwing millions into these movies they are making still can't figure out the right time to release them!???

Actually, I disagree with this. What would have stopped WWZ from moving up right after that? And moving a release close to said date is not always a good thing. GA sometimes will not realize the date swap. Plus they opened during Father's day weekend, obviously a strategy since MOS has some father themes in the movie and throughout their promotion. Moving to June 7th imo would have been bad and 116 (128m) would not have happened. WB WANTED a big Opening weekend and the June OW record.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

I just hope Superman can reach a point someday where other movies are afraid to be close to its release date, not the other way around.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

What major franchises does Warner Bros have without Harry Potter and The Dark Knight?

The Hobbit and...wait for it...

Man of Steel.

There will be a MOS2.

 

[Sup3rman81]

You do realize that it will still take screen away right? It will be big for most movies, but MoS has already lost a lot of screens. Is going to lose a lot more these next two weeks as 4 big movies open.

Use some logic here.

If MOS drops 60% this weekend then it will make 24,772,323 at the BO. July 4th weekend if it drops another 60% will be 16,514,882. That is right in line with what I was saying. So I dont see any validity to your argument. and another 60% has it at 9,908,929

 

[Sup3rman81]

I just hope Superman can reach a point someday where other movies are afraid to be close to its release date, not the other way around.

After Earth moved up and so did this is the end so it would distance itself from MOS. Other than that there was not any movies coming out big the the week of or before MOS.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

I just hope Superman can reach a point someday where other movies are afraid to be close to its release date, not the other way around.

Well, MOS broke the all-time June record for opening weekend. So nobody would enjoy opening a movie on the weekend of MOS2. Avatar 2 wouldn't even want to.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

MOS opened with 4,207 theaters and still is at the number. It is not known if it has lost any screens or not. Can you check where a movie has lost screens.

It has lot a ton of screens. It is down to one 3D showing at my nearest theater. I watched it again yesterday in one of the non-main screens. It only has two 2D screen.

Just go to Fandango and look up your local times. It is going to be worse next week and the week after as each of the big four films opening up will do so on over 3,000 screens. Considering the Lone Ranger is a Disney film, 4,000 is probably locked for it as well.

 

[Sup3rman81]

Actually, I disagree with this. What would have stopped WWZ from moving up right after that? And moving a release close to said date is not always a good thing. GA sometimes will not realize the date swap. Plus they opened during Father's day weekend, obviously a strategy since MOS has some father themes in the movie and throughout their promotion. Moving to June 7th imo would have been bad and 116 (128m) would not have happened. WB WANTED a big Opening weekend and the June OW record.

actually MOS should have moved up to the 7th and took out the Purge. It still would have opened with the record IMO and then would have had two weeks at #1. Even if WWZ moves up to the 14th, MOS would beat it because I feel MU took away from MOS more than WWZ. WWZ vs MOS=MOS every time. MU would then come out the 21st and push MOS to 2nd, WWZ to 3rd and MU takes #1. This would have reduced MOS to probably only 54-57% drops and we wouldnt have these nit picking doom and gloom fake Superman fans crying for a reboot and saying how MOS is a fail

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If MOS drops 60% this weekend then it will make 24,772,323 at the BO. July 4th weekend if it drops another 60% will be 16,514,882. That is right in line with what I was saying. So I dont see any validity to your argument. and another 60% has it at 9,908,929

You do realize you're math is backwards right? A 60% drop does not mean you gross 60% of the last weekend's gross, but 40% of it.

MoS made $41m last weekend. A 60% drop from that would be $16.4m. The $24.6m is what you lose, not what you make. A 60% drop from that would be $6.56m.

You see no validity in my argument because your math is wrong.

 

[Sup3rman81]

It has lot a ton of screens. It is down to one 3D showing at my nearest theater. I watched it again yesterday in one of the non-main screens. It only has two 2D screen.

Just go to Fandango and look up your local times. It is going to be worse next week and the week after as each of the big four films opening up will do so on over 3,000 screens. Considering the Lone Ranger is a Disney film, 4,000 is probably locked for it as well.

I do not doubt it will lose screens but I never said MOS would beat any of the new releases. just that it would make 17-18 July 4th weekend. I showed that with 60% drops on the July 4th weekend MOS can make over 16m

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I do not doubt it will lose screens but I never said MOS would beat any of the new releases. just that it would make 17-18 July 4th weekend. I showed that with 60% drops on the July 4th weekend MOS can make over 16m

You do not understand the choking effect of the other films, nor do you realize your math is wrong.

 

[Marvin]

actually MOS should have moved up to the 7th and took out the Purge. It still would have opened with the record IMO and then would have had two weeks at #1. Even if WWZ moves up to the 14th, MOS would beat it because I feel MU took away from MOS more than WWZ. WWZ vs MOS=MOS every time. MU would then come out the 21st and push MOS to 2nd, WWZ to 3rd and MU takes #1. This would have reduced MOS to probably only 54-57% drops and we wouldnt have these nit picking doom and gloom fake Superman fans crying for a reboot and saying how MOS is a fail

An extra week with lax competition couldn't have hurt. If it meant the film opened during the last week of elementary school, more power to them.

Go tell your friends kids.

Now mas has nothing but week on week double features to contend with.

 

[Liam_H]

well if the Wed $4.2m holds, it means it has done about $4m more than my own predictions for Mon-Wed; so that's good .. & if it's tracking for $20m this weekend & that holds as well, it'll be $7.5m ahead of my Mon-Sun predictions, putting it at around $245m domestic, meaning $260m + by Jul 7th is very doable, which IMO is the figure it needs to close north of 290m domestic ..

Yea, I don't remember your weekday breakdown but your numbers were far lower than it should have been especially the Tuesday figure which should have went up instead of down.

 

[Sup3rman81]

You do realize you're math is backwards right? A 60% drop does not mean you gross 60% of the last weekend's gross, but 40% of it.

MoS made $41m last weekend. A 60% drop from that would be $16.4m. The $24.6m is what you lose, not what you make. A 60% drop from that would be $6.56m.

You see no validity in my argument because your math is wrong.

You are right, I did not figure that up correctly. well we need less than a 60% drop. More around 55-56%

 

[Mysteryman]

To help you understand it a bit better let me put it this way...used this example before actually.

Imagine if MoS only opened with $90M instead of $116/128M. But both scenario gets you to a $300M finish. Which would you prefer?

Me, definitely the $90M because that would mean a 3.3 OW multiplier instead of a 2.3-2.5 one. In this age of frontloading, having legs is very impressive. It would mean to me people are enjoying the movie very much and are getting people to see it. Great potential would await the sequel.

I was actually hoping for that very scenario.

 

[Sup3rman81]

You do not understand the choking effect of the other films, nor do you realize your math is wrong.

what is your point here? Are you trying to say that MOS wont reach a certain number or what? I think it will do around 300-315 by the time its done. Regardless of choking or lack of screens. I think MOS can still do big for the 4th and then take a drop the following week. either way I am happy with how its doing considering