Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[113]

Yea... MOS is doing awesome OS. So far in the UK MOS already made 30+ Million compare to Iron Man 3 total earning at $56,912,629. From just looking at last week International country earning it's all doing really good like Iron Man 3. Some country like Philippines is actually doing better with MOS than Iron Man 3. Iron Man 3 made $14,949,472 it's entire run while MOS took in $5,770,726 opening weekend. If the trends continues like this at the major country 500 OS or more intake is possible.

Yep, and if IM3 can make $800 million OS, then I really don't think $500 million OS is out of reach. This movie has only been out 13 days!

 

[Mysteryman]

I would imagine MOS will decline a bit today assuming both of the new releases have Midnight screenings .
Juat a bit .

 

[Sup3rman81]

MOS will turn a good profit but mostly through merchandising, television rights and bluray sales. The box office take alone will probably not get them out of the red but thats the studios fault. You shouldnt be pouring 250-300 mill into a movie unless you're dead sure you're going to triple that amount at he box office. TDKR earned that budget, Avengers earned that budget, IM3 and Transformers 3 as well. Green lantern, Lone Ranger and MOS didn't.

You cant even say MOS didn't make back its budget. Its made 223m in 13 days and its production budget was 225m. So you saying it hasnt and wont make its budget back is foolish. But everyone on here thinks their an expert

 

[kalhawj]

Originally Posted by T"Challa
MOS will turn a good profit but mostly through merchandising, television rights and bluray sales. The box office take alone will probably not get them out of the red but thats the studios fault. You shouldnt be pouring 250-300 mill into a movie unless you're dead sure you're going to triple that amount at he box office. TDKR earned that budget, Avengers earned that budget, IM3 and Transformers 3 as well. Green lantern, Lone Ranger and MOS didn't.

I think you are way too fast to think MOS is a BO failure... MOS is nothing like GL, and it's theater run is not even halfway and already 400 mil WW and probably 500 WW after this weekend when international number are accounted for. Sure Transformer 3 made Worldwide: $836,303,693 but that was a sequel. MOS is an reboot/origin. MOS still have a changes to make 800WW depending on how it does this weekend and over sea.

 

[Showtime]

You cant even say MOS didn't make back its budget. Its made 223m in 13 days and its production budget was 225m. So you saying it hasnt and wont make its budget back is foolish. But everyone on here thinks their an expert

Well based of what you are saying, it doesn't sound like you're an expert either.

If you keep calling people foolish and acting the way you're acting, you're not going to be here to become an expert though.

 

[T"Challa]

You cant even say MOS didn't make back its budget. Its made 223m in 13 days and its production budget was 225m. So you saying it hasnt and wont make its budget back is foolish. But everyone on here thinks their an expert

You're not understanding what i'm saying. Of course $400 mill in two weeks is a great amount of money in a vacuum. But that sum is undercut by the amount of money that was spent on the movie. And based off trends and long term extrapolations, WB will probably not see a very significant (100+mill) profit off MOS's box office alone. There are many posts in this thread that give great detail as to why this is the case. Hell someone posted a document about Harry Potter 3, which made more money than MOS will likely make and cost 100 million less, but still didnt turn a good profit.

 

[J.Howlett]

You're not understanding what i'm saying. Of course $400 mill in two weeks is a great amount of money in a vacuum. But that sum is undercut by the amount of money that was spent on the movie. And based off trends and long term extrapolations, WB will probably not see a very significant (100+mill) profit off MOS's box office alone. There are many posts in this thread that give great detail as to why this is the case. Hell someone posted a document about Harry Potter 3, which made more money than MOS will likely make and cost 100 million less, but still didnt turn a good profit.

While you are correct in your analysis, is that truly the main goal of Man of Steel for WB? What's WB's end game with Man of Steel in the long run?

And yet, this just comes back to the problem with the system as is. Making a billion is now the norm for any tent pole films to make a profit theatrically since the DVD bubble burst.

It's just astonishing that a billion dollar film might not make a profit because of how much a studio spends.

Blow the whole damn thing up, if you ask me.

 

[tan-el]

While you are correct in your analysis, is that truly the main goal of Man of Steel for WB? What's WB's end game with Man of Steel in the long run?

I had the same question
This doesn't make too much business sense to me with such smallish profits on such big investments

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I had the same question
This doesn't make too much business sense to me with such smallish profits on such big investments

And yet...

 

[J.Howlett]

I had the same question
This doesn't make too much business sense to me with such smallish profits on such big investments

To them, it does. A decade of DC characters on the screen could be a huge windfall in the long, long run. They're playing long ball.

Now, if this film opened at 70 million, we'd all be having a different conversation right now.

 

[JKKS085]

I had the same question
This doesn't make too much business sense to me with such smallish profits on such big investments

Because theaters revenues represent basically 20% of the entire income a movie generates nowadays.
Studios are taking in almost five times as much revenue from home entertainments, television, VOD, Pay-TV, DVD, BR (wich have much lower marketing costs) and other sides revenues (merchandising and other derived products) as from movie theaters.

This is a ballpark figure of course that varies from one movie to another, but it's certainly one of the reasons why studios keep on investing large amounts of money in front loaded blockbusters.

 

[T"Challa]

While you are correct in your analysis, is that truly the main goal of Man of Steel for WB? What's WB's end game with Man of Steel in the long run?

And yet, this just comes back to the problem with the system as is. Making a billion is now the norm for any tent pole films to make a profit theatrically since the DVD bubble burst.

It's just astonishing that a billion dollar film might not make a profit because of how much a studio spends.

Blow the whole damn thing up, if you ask me.

I agree. Some of these budgets are beyond outrageous. I've always said, a movie/franchise has to 'earn' these huge budgets. Chris Nolan should be given 250 mill for TDKR, Cameron should be given 300 mill for Avatar 2, Whedon should be given 250+ mill for Avengers 2. They've proven the can make you your money back in spades.

I don't know if its laziness or what, with the need to CGI so much stuff these days. Neil Blomkamp made District 9 for just 30 million. Elysium is being made for under 100 mill reportedly. And somehow the trailer alone looks better than anything i say in Green Lantern or Battleship and those films cost twice as much..smh.

 

[T"Challa]

Because theaters revenues represent basically 20% of the entire income a movie generates nowadays.
Studios are taking in almost five times as much revenue from home entertainments, television, VOD, Pay-TV, DVD, BR (wich have much lower marketing costs) and other sides revenues (merchandising and other derived products) as from movie theaters.

This is a ballpark figure of course that varies from one movie to another, but it's certainly one of the reasons why studios keep on investing large amounts of money in front loaded blockbusters.

This. Disney makes an absolute killing off toys and merchandising. Thats why they don't blink an eye with their budgets. Pixar and now Marvel have become money printing machines for them. I read on some website, i think Forbes that the 1.5 billion Avengers made in box office sales still made up less than 40% of the overall profits from that movie when toy sales,merchandising, blue ray sales etc was included. Think about that.

 

[J.Howlett]

This. Disney makes an absolute killing off toys and merchandising. Thats why they don't blink an eye with their budgets. Pixar and now Marvel have become money printing machines for them. I read on some website, i think Forbes that the 1.5 billion Avengers made in box office sales still made up less than 40% of the overall profits from that movie when toy sales,merchandising, blue ray sales etc was included. Think about that.

And this is what WB wants. They will push forward with the sequel no matter what. If the sequel is to Man of Steel what the Dark Knight was to Batman Begins, WB will go forward without hesitation.

 

[J.Howlett]

I agree. Some of these budgets are beyond outrageous. I've always said, a movie/franchise has to 'earn' these huge budgets. Chris Nolan should be given 250 mill for TDKR, Cameron should be given 300 mill for Avatar 2, Whedon should be given 250+ mill for Avengers 2. They've proven the can make you your money back in spades.

I don't know if its laziness or what, with the need to CGI so much stuff these days. Neil Blomkamp made District 9 for just 30 million. Elysium is being made for under 100 mill reportedly. And somehow the trailer alone looks better than anything i say in Green Lantern or Battleship and those films cost twice as much..smh.

Pretty much this. I don't know if Snyder needed to spend 225 on this film, but, you can see it on the screen.

If he had made this film for 150 but got the same results, WB would've announced all sorts of movies by now.

 

[J.Howlett]

What could save the Man of Steel sequel is if Snyder does the film for the same price or a tad less or maybe 10 million more. Making it for 250 next time might be pushing it...

 

[113]

You're not understanding what i'm saying. Of course $400 mill in two weeks is a great amount of money in a vacuum. But that sum is undercut by the amount of money that was spent on the movie. And based off trends and long term extrapolations, WB will probably not see a very significant (100+mill) profit off MOS's box office alone. There are many posts in this thread that give great detail as to why this is the case. Hell someone posted a document about Harry Potter 3, which made more money than MOS will likely make and cost 100 million less, but still didnt turn a good profit.

I think you missed the discussion (maybe it was in the previous thread of this topic) where we already discussed how much was spent on advertising, and other non-production expenses. Someone said it was around $170 million I believe.

We also already discussed how much money the film has made when you include product placements, merchandise, and other non-production related revenue. I believe it's around $150 million.

So basically the non-production expenses and revenues cancel out give or take ~20 million. Thus, just using the basic formula of Box Office - Production Budget is completely valid way to measure the success of the film.

Now the revenue-sharing deals that WB has with other studios (like Legendary, Synecopy) is another topic, but considering that WB just severed ties with Legendary I think it's pretty obvious that a sequel for MoS is going to happen at this point regardless of the final BO numbers; which basically everyone on SHH is in agreement will be at minimum $600 million WW. Some say $650, others say $700, others say $750, I say $800+

 

[Jim-El]

MOS will make 700 Million World Wide. The question is, "Is that enough?"

 

[Tra-El]

MOS will make 700 Million World Wide. The question is, "Is that enough?"

More than. It's a successful kickoff to the franchise and a fantastic beginning to a Superman universe. Going to be a fun next several years of cinematic developments.

 

[113]

More than. It's a successful kickoff to the franchise and a fantastic beginning to a Superman universe. Going to be a fun next several years of cinematic developments.

I love your prediction, and you were spot on about OW (including Walmart screenings).

I'm hoping your WW prediction comes true, hell I still hope a billion will happen. At this point I'll be happy with just above $800 million.

 

[Tony Stark]

Before it opened I said it would make between 600-700M, and it performed exactly as I expected.

I don't think the box office is a concern, but the dropping numbers shows that it didn't have much staying power, and that could be an issue for the sequel if they don't make some improvements.

The box office lived up to my expectations, but the movie fell short of my expectations.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This. Disney makes an absolute killing off toys and merchandising. Thats why they don't blink an eye with their budgets. Pixar and now Marvel have become money printing machines for them. I read on some website, i think Forbes that the 1.5 billion Avengers made in box office sales still made up less than 40% of the overall profits from that movie when toy sales,merchandising, blue ray sales etc was included. Think about that.

You must mean 40% of the revenue.

 

[Jim-El]

The box office lived up to my expectations, but the movie fell short of my expectations.

As far as falling short of your expectations, same here. I just came out of the movie feeling flat. Good film, but the movie was basically depressing with not enough humor.

 

[kalhawj]

As far as falling short of your expectations, same here. I just came out of the movie feeling flat. Good film, but the movie was basically depressing with not enough humor.

There was humor just wasn't Iron Man 3 type of humor... t:

 

[Tra-El]

I love your prediction, and you were spot on about OW (including Walmart screenings).

I'm hoping your WW prediction comes true, hell I still hope a billion will happen. At this point I'll be happy with just above $800 million.

If the poll would show names next to each vote, you would find my name under "$700 WW." It wasn't until after trailer #3 where I went big or went home so I upped it to $900 million but I'll take $700 WW (my initial gut feeling) all day everyday! That is an outstanding liftoff to a rebooted franchise ready for breakout with a sequel and then-some.