Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Man of Steel' started by Mr. Dent, Dec 11, 2012.

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How do you think Man of Steel will do?

  1. 1.5 billion

  2. 1 billion

  3. 900 million

  4. 800 million

  5. 700 million

  6. 600 million

  7. 500 million

  8. 400 million

  9. 300 million

  10. 200 million

  11. 1.5 billion

  12. 1 billion

  13. 900 million

  14. 800 million

  15. 700 million

  16. 600 million

  17. 500 million

  18. 400 million

  19. 300 million

  20. 200 million

  21. 1.5 billion

  22. 1 billion

  23. 900 million

  24. 800 million

  25. 700 million

  26. 600 million

  27. 500 million

  28. 400 million

  29. 300 million

  30. 200 million

  31. 1.5 billion

  32. 1 billion

  33. 900 million

  34. 800 million

  35. 700 million

  36. 600 million

  37. 500 million

  38. 400 million

  39. 300 million

  40. 200 million

  41. 1.5 billion

  42. 1 billion

  43. 900 million

  44. 800 million

  45. 700 million

  46. 600 million

  47. 500 million

  48. 400 million

  49. 300 million

  50. 200 million

  51. 1.5 billion

  52. 1 billion

  53. 900 million

  54. 800 million

  55. 700 million

  56. 600 million

  57. 500 million

  58. 400 million

  59. 300 million

  60. 200 million

  61. 1.5 billion

  62. 1 billion

  63. 900 million

  64. 800 million

  65. 700 million

  66. 600 million

  67. 500 million

  68. 400 million

  69. 300 million

  70. 200 million

  71. 1.5 billion

  72. 1 billion

  73. 900 million

  74. 800 million

  75. 700 million

  76. 600 million

  77. 500 million

  78. 400 million

  79. 300 million

  80. 200 million

  81. 1.5 billion

  82. 1 billion

  83. 900 million

  84. 800 million

  85. 700 million

  86. 600 million

  87. 500 million

  88. 400 million

  89. 300 million

  90. 200 million

  91. 1.5 billion

  92. 1 billion

  93. 900 million

  94. 800 million

  95. 700 million

  96. 600 million

  97. 500 million

  98. 400 million

  99. 300 million

  100. 200 million

  101. 1.5 billion

  102. 1 billion

  103. 900 million

  104. 800 million

  105. 700 million

  106. 600 million

  107. 500 million

  108. 400 million

  109. 300 million

  110. 200 million

  111. 1.5 billion

  112. 1 billion

  113. 900 million

  114. 800 million

  115. 700 million

  116. 600 million

  117. 500 million

  118. 400 million

  119. 300 million

  120. 200 million

  121. 1.5 billion

  122. 1 billion

  123. 900 million

  124. 800 million

  125. 700 million

  126. 600 million

  127. 500 million

  128. 400 million

  129. 300 million

  130. 200 million

  131. 1.5 billion

  132. 1 billion

  133. 900 million

  134. 800 million

  135. 700 million

  136. 600 million

  137. 500 million

  138. 400 million

  139. 300 million

  140. 200 million

  141. 1.5 billion

  142. 1 billion

  143. 900 million

  144. 800 million

  145. 700 million

  146. 600 million

  147. 500 million

  148. 400 million

  149. 300 million

  150. 200 million

  151. 1.5 billion

  152. 1 billion

  153. 900 million

  154. 800 million

  155. 700 million

  156. 600 million

  157. 500 million

  158. 400 million

  159. 300 million

  160. 200 million

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  1. BH/HHH

    BH/HHH You Are My World

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    Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?

    I hope it can make $700 mill or more myself I guess it's gonna depend on whether the hype surrounds it like it did with the Dark Knight.
     
    #76
  2. SuperAl

    SuperAl Superman's back!

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    500 would prolly guarantee a sequel, tho it depends on how good Zack controlled the budget.
     
    #77
  3. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    Not really.

    A general rule of thumb is a movie has to make double the budget and marketing cost to be profitable.
     
    #78
  4. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    This movie has more variables than usual to take into the equation.

    Let me start by saying the folks saying it could have used a fight or two, or that it looks too serious, etc perhaps have a point. But, all trailers are not created equal, especially for a Superman movie. For example, STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS's teaser might get people more excited than MAN OF STEELs does, which I suppose is the point, right? In this instance, not exactly.

    Everyone needs to know thing: the most important piece of marketing for a sequel is the film which precedes. If that film sucks, and the trailer rocks, it can offset it somewhat. But it is a rule of thumb - the preceding film is the most important piece. The approach to making a trailer for a sequel is entirely different than it is for making a trailer for a film which is a franchise beginner. The trailers fundamentally need to accomplish different things in order to generate excitement.

    This is the best teaser for this kind of film I can recall. It it not being fanboyish, either (though obviously that side of me is excited). The movies which Man of Steel wants to compare 'favorably' with in terms of marketing material effectiveness are Transformers, Iron Man, Spider-man (2002), Star Trek, Batman Begins, Casino Royale, The Amazing Spider-man, etc. It is a moot point to compare the trailer with sequels, simply because there are no established characters here- everything is introductory. For Star Trek 2, the Batman sequels, the Iron Man sequels, etc - the strongest piece of marketing is the film preceding it, not the trailers. Superman has no previous film, rather it is starting from scratch. There are pre-set expectations that a film will be any good, for example, like there were with the Batman sequels, the Spider-man sequels (not so much the recent reboot), or Iron Man 2.

    Therefore, making the film appear as one of quality & integrity, and one with interesting characters & storylines are the primary goals so that it is taken seriously. While Star Trek Into Darkness can just show money shot after money shot while only hinting at the characters because it knows it will be taken seriously instantly due to the popularity of the first film, it is *critical* for Man of Steels trailers to establish these foundation points before veering off more heavily into the story & action (which are easier sells in their own right as well).

    Understand there will be nitpickers everywhere. If MOS advertised itself as all action with little story; if the recent trailer was more like a Spider-man trailer - it would have excited some people. But these people will get excited by 30 second tv spots. It would have generated plenty of criticism for not looking serious enough, or good enough. It is important for the marketers to satisfy this crowd - the quality judging crowd - before the satisfy the action junkie. Ones enthusiasm will lead to the other in this manner, but that does not happen if it goes the other way. One would ALWAYS prefer having people complain it looks too serious than saying it looks too silly.

    I would say Man Of Steel has the, easily, the most well-made introductory trailer of any of those films. Star Trek & Transformers had all time great final theatrical trailers, but their winter-released trailers do not compare with Man Of Steels. Batman Begins trailer, which aired with Oceans 12 in winter 2004 (it was the one that ended in "WHERE ARE YOU!?"-"HERE") was decent, but nothing special. Casino Royales was all action, little substance.Spider-man winter 2001 trailer, which aired with The Fellowship Of The ring, is the one of truly comparable quality. That was quite different - Spider-man was sold as a popcorny crowd pleasing blockbuster, while Superman looks more like an Oscar worthy epic. But in terms of effectiveness, they are the best.

    I've been in this a while. I am not as steady of a predictor as some here, but over the 6-7 years, nobody on the major box office predicting web sites as he's predicted more break outs & flops than myself. Try and remember how 'out there' these prediction seemed at the time they were made:

    -Iron Man 300 million club - established July, 2007
    -Transformers 250 million call - November 2006
    -Pirates 3 - sub 300m club -winter 2006
    -Narnia 2 under 200 million club - Winter 2007
    -The Dark Knight over Indiana Jones - summer 2007
    -American Gangster breaking out big - summer 2007
    -Skyfall over 300 million, September, 2012
    -Iron Man 2 under Iron Man, Sring 2010
    -Inception > 250 million, spring 2010

    Not bragging, I just have a decent eye for break outs. Man Of Steel is going to be the latest. If it had Iron Mans release date, I would be saying Superman will do 150/500+. This is going to be the Superman movie everyone has been waiting for. In June, I would stunned at under 120m/350/ if the marketing continues to impress. Frankly, it could go much higher.
     
    #79
  5. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    This is going to do very well overseas, I wouldn't worry about. Superman Returns got destroyed by Pirates 2 overseas (which made 600m+). Superheros, Christopher Nolan, and big special effects blockbusters always do well overseason.

    I would be shocked at a penny under 600m, myself. I am feeling break out big time on this one.
     
    #80
  6. BH/HHH

    BH/HHH You Are My World

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    Ill see it at least 3 times not in 3D though
     
    #81
  7. Sun_Down

    Sun_Down Groovy

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    If the budget is around $250M total (a little higher than the $225 figure I'm seeing), wouldn't $500M gross put it at about break-even?
     
    #82
  8. Robin91939

    Robin91939 Master Tim

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    It will make The Amazing Spider-man money.

    Nolan's name gives it a lot of cache with the general audience.

    If they market it correctly, kicking up the emphasis on action in the last 2-3 months before the release they will be fine.

    -R
     
    #83
  9. Bruce Malone

    Bruce Malone Well-Known Member

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    It's been so long since superman was properly sold to the public. So it'll be interesting to see if superman does indeed rank up-there with the other superhero box office heavy hitters or not?
     
    #84
  10. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    You forgot the 75 to 100 million for marketing.
     
    #85
  11. Ultimatehero

    Ultimatehero Life is infinite

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    I'd say somewhere around the higher 200's domestic, just like Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man along with additional money from overseas. Asking much more than that I'd say is asking too much. Superman Returns IS going to hurt Man of Steel. Studios know that. Audiences have a notion of, "fool me once, shame on me. fool me twice, no thanks - I'm not going." HOWEVER it is the sequel where the money starts flowing in again. NO MOVIE with a bad predecessor that wasn't very favorable has ever done well - it's always fallen behind all the others in the franchise. This has hurt several amazing franchise film reboots after a less than stellar predecessor. Batman Begins had Batman & Robin. Man of Steel has Superman Returns. With that said, however, we ARE looking at Nolan's name being attached - so as long as the Batman component keeps on driving it - that should be something to combat it. Not completely, but it will help. I wouldn't be afraid of a sequel, if it gets a relatively good amount - AND audiences saying "they got it right!" and "that was awesome!" They WILL put a sequel into the works because this kind of film - a 'come back' always looks to make its earnings there. That's just in how these 'come back' films have performed.
     
    #86
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2012
  12. sf2

    sf2 Well-Known Member

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    indeed. hopefully he is still popular and the public still loves him.
     
    #87
  13. sf2

    sf2 Well-Known Member

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    Fansites and forums??? LOL. c’mon it is a new trailer. fans are irrational about their hero. And as I said fans only contribute 0.0001 % of the box office number. [FONT=&quot][/FONT]
     
    #88
  14. FilmNerdJamie

    FilmNerdJamie I'M MARY POPPINS, Y'ALL!

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    Pretty much.
     
    #89
  15. GreenKToo

    GreenKToo In the fire

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    Folks did the same with sr, predicting 400 mill dom and 700 or 800 mill ww. I know, I was here.
    If it does 250 to 300 mill dom. i'll be happy. I bet wb would be too.
     
    #90
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  16. TDK elbowstrike

    TDK elbowstrike "I'm a man of my word..."

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    I think this film has the potential to break 700 mil.
     
    #91
  17. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    I think people need to calm down and not overpredict the film. The Amazing Spider-Man fanboys were convinced the movie was a lock for 300mil domestically and 1bil worldwide and that didn't happen.
     
    #92
  18. FilmNerdJamie

    FilmNerdJamie I'M MARY POPPINS, Y'ALL!

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    Bingo.
     
    #93
  19. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    Depends how its received. If its generally liked then yes it certainly will. Batman Begins didn't set the box office on fire but it was well liked and sold many DVDs.
     
    #94
  20. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    Star Trek made less than 400mil worldwide but it got a sequel because 257mil of that was from north America and the movie was very well liked. A well liked Superman movie that makes 500mil will be considered a great haul.
     
    #95
  21. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    and how many fanboys underpredicted Avengers and Skyfall?

    100 percent.

    Nobody knows what MOS is gonna make.
     
    #96
  22. GreenKToo

    GreenKToo In the fire

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    Even if it only makes....say 235 mill dom, but has excellent wom and a hunger for more, it will be a success. I'm not saying thats all its capable of making tho. I believe it will be very similar to what happened with BB.
     
    #97
  23. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    People who have followed the box office long enough have a pretty good idea of what sells.

    A year from now, this trailer will be the stuff of legends. Just like the transformers, spiderman, and independence day trailers of past. It will be that "Ah. yes, I should have seen this coming the second that trailer hit".:hrt:
     
    #98
  24. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    And how many overpredicted ASM? :cwink:
     
    #99
  25. ElDuderino

    ElDuderino Well-Known Member

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    With the reaction to the trailer, I'm thinking this has a good chance of besting 700 million. Plus it's shaping up to not have much competition around it.
     
    #100
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