I believe I already addressed this...X3, Punisher 2, and Hulk 2 are sequels. Sequels almost never do as well as their predecessors. I do however think SM3 will be the exception, that will do very well. Probably arond BB/SR's numbers (aka, it will beat both WW and Flash). As for Iron Man and Submariner...that's simple; Flash and WW are much more well known than both of those properties. Everyone from 9-90 knows who Wonder Woman. You can't say the same about Submariner.
Fair enough. I should mention, I didn't mean DC has the best characters overall...I meant it in terms of the upcoming movies (IE WW > Punisher, etc). But in anycase, do agree that larger properties will beat smaller ones? Like, a Spider-Man movie would beat the crap out of a Dr. Midnite movie every day of the week, right?
I'll address both of these comments in one post because it basically deals with the same subject.. character popularity and how it relates to audience participation. I'll agree with your premise only up to a point. You would probably be right in most cases concerning your assumption that more popular characters will do better than obscure ones as far as films go but this is not always the case.
A glaring example would be Spider-man. Prior to Spider-man being released only the most diehard Spidey fan would've debated that Spidey could beat both Batman and Superman (which are both so-called more popular) as far as critics, fan approval and mainly box office numbers go, yet Spidey trounced both of them soundly. The same thing could happen with the upcoming BB and FF films. It's not impossible.
This is my point. As far as comics go, yeah Flash, WW and Green Lantern might be more popular than SS, Thor, Ironman, Ghost Rider and Sub-mariner but because these properties are making a transition to an altogether different medium, such as film in which they have to appeal to a broader audience, print popularity might not be an advantage for them. If for example, Green Lantern is a good movie and Thor is a better movie, I would fully expect Thor to perform better despite GL's so-called greater comic appeal. IMO.
In other words, I'm willing to compromise with your original point and that is... Marvel COULD be in trouble if those films you mentioned do well but at the same time there's a strong possibility Marvel could hold on to it's #1 spot even if those movies are released. I'm just pointing out the alternative.
As I've stated earlier, there's not enough evidence as of now to claim Marvel is losing it's edge and D.C. is getting their's back. Marvel's latest outings haven't been the best, Blade:Trinity and Elektra, but neither has D.C.'s LOEG and Catwoman. Add to that Constantine's $71,465,000 domestic b.o., offset by it's 100 mil. production cost vs. Blade with it's 70,087,718 domestic b.o. offset by it's 50 mil. production cost, one would still have to concede there's not enough proof to say D.C. is taking Marvel's #1 spot.
I only used those two franchises as examples because D.C. fans like to point out Constantine as the beginning of D.C.'s come back and Blade was Marvel's. I'm not debating the quality of those movies because that's too subjective.