MCU Box Office

[HammerDown]

MCU Box Office Predictions:

- Spider-Man: No Way Home
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
- Thor: Love and Thunder
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- The Marvels
- Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

 

[Bayne]

Shang Chi has no chance under current conditions. Eternals is probably a longshot, but if conditions improve it may be possible. Looking at the trailer, SM should have been a lock for an absolutely massive opening and an easy 1b+ gross. If it isn't capable of at least coming close to that by december then the market is far too screwed up to have hope of accurately guessing which later film will be able to reach that threshold. At that point it's mostly just about which film is lucky enough to come out at the right time and we have no idea when the right time will be.

 

[HammerDown]

Break 100M Domestic Opening Weekend?
Spider-Man: No Way Home

That's pretty much a given. Taking everything into account i'll say it will probably hit around the 120M mark. I think Shang Chi will probably have an 80M OW and around 500M WW.

 

[psylockolussus]

Break 100M Domestic Opening Weekend?
Spider-Man No Way Home

Break 1B Worldwide Gross?
I don't think we'll see one until 2024.

 

[Mandon Knight]

As others are saying, it's all wholly dependent on when 'cinema' becomes a regular, as it was, experience again with multiple crowds and larger audiences and which film coincides with that occurrence.

 

[Docker2.0]

The only one I see with a $100M OW is Spiderman. Eternals and Shang Chi have no shot at all at this point.

 

[SumT]

my guess is one of the movies of 2022. I honestly dont see any movie coming this year changing the situation in a big way. Spiderman may open big, but not pre-Covid big, so Im not that sure it opens above 100m.

 

[Drizzle]

A few months ago I would have said No Way Home would be the first post-pandemic film to gross $1 billion but that was before the Delta variant explosion. Maybe things will be better by then but if not, then maybe Love and Thunder based on how much more popular Thor has become since Ragnarok.

 

[HammerDown]

The only one I see with a $100M OW is Spiderman. Eternals and Shang Chi have no shot at all at this point.

The only one out of all of them?

my guess is one of the movies of 2022. I honestly dont see any movie coming this year changing the situation in a big way. Spiderman may open big, but not pre-Covid big, so Im not that sure it opens above 100m.

I mean if Black Widow managed to score 80M theatrically with the availability on Disney+ As well I think Spider-Man can easily crack 100M OW.

 

[JohnUnknownDoe]

They gotta advertise Spidey correctly. The average Joe dont know Tobey & Andrew are coming back

 

[Drizzle]

They gotta advertise Spidey correctly. The average Joe dont know Tobey & Andrew are coming back

They're most likely saving that for the final trailer.

 

[JohnUnknownDoe]

They're most likely saving that for the final trailer.

For all we know they could be pulling a WB

 

[Drizzle]

For all we know they could be pulling a WB

Meaning?

 

[JohnUnknownDoe]

Meaning?

They kept Superman out of the marketing for Justice League even though even peoples pets knew he was coming back

 

[Drizzle]

They kept Superman out of the marketing for Justice League even though even peoples pets knew he was coming back

Ah yes. That was an even more obvious open secret than this one is.

 

[HammerDown]

A few months ago I would have said No Way Home would be the first post-pandemic film to gross $1 billion but that was before the Delta variant explosion. Maybe things will be better by then but if not, then maybe Love and Thunder based on how much more popular Thor has become since Ragnarok.

This is pretty much where I stand as well. I think SM will do incredibly well but could struggle to reach the 1B mark. TLT has more time on its side for things to get back to normal and with a prime summer launch ramp it could do really well.

We should be getting a better idea of how these movies will perform with every new MCU movie box office performance, from Shang-Chi, Eternals…

 

[Drizzle]

This is pretty much where I stand as well. I think SM will do incredibly well but could struggle to reach the 1B mark. TLT has more time on its side for things to get back to normal and with a prime summer launch ramp it could do really well.

We should be getting a better idea of how these movies will perform with every new MCU movie box office performance, from Shang-Chi, Eternals…

At the very least, out of the ones listed in the original post, Shang-Chi and Eternals are going to be on the lower end since the rest are all sequels to pre-established Marvel IPs. That's one thing that wouldn't have changed even if the pandemic wasn't a factor.

 

[Docker2.0]

The only one out of all of them?


I mean if Black Widow managed to score 80M theatrically with the availability on Disney+ As well I think Spider-Man can easily crack 100M OW.

Out of those 3, yes!

 

[NHawk19]

A few years ago all of them would've broken $100M on open.

Given the current world not so much. Best chance to get there first though is SM:NWH, though that depends on what the world is like in December. Black Panther 2 is the other one that should hit all those marks.

 

[HammerDown]

With the crazy performance of the SM:NWH trailer, regarding views on all platforms i clearly have to adjust the BO prediction...
OW = 150M +

 

[HammerDown]

‘Shang-Chi’ Box Office to Smash Labor Day Record with $75-$85M – The Hollywood Reporter

That's great and a good indication for the upcoming MCU releases.
Around 60M for the 3 day. In the same range as the first Thor, Captain America, Ant Man, Hulk...

I think Eternals could do around 80M OW.

 

[psylockolussus]

Eternals should open higher than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, if these super infectious variants slowed down.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Shang chi came close. I could see Eternals opening between 80-90...maybe 100.

Spider-Man will be huge and I've been predicting that it would be the highest grossing film of the year since day 1. Both Dom & overseas. That's your first 100 million opener. I believe everything after Spider-Man will open to over 100 million (minus Ant-Man most likely).

 

[mclay18]

Shang chi came close. I could see Eternals opening between 80-90...maybe 100.

Spider-Man will be huge and I've been predicting that it would be the highest grossing film of the year since day 1. Both Dom & overseas. That's your first 100 million opener. I believe everything after Spider-Man will open to over 100 million (minus Ant-Man most likely).

Ant-Man is such a B-level character. Quantumania would have to fire on all cylinders to hit a $100M o.w. number, even with the mid-February 2023 release.

 

[HammerDown]

So Shang-Chi took in 75M for the 3 day weekend. That’s huge.

Eternals feels more like a high brow concept and I wonder how the audience will react to it. I still think it’s going to do big numbers as well.