MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[psylockolussus]

Yeah, you’ve got a point.

I wasn’t even paying attention to those other films because I have zero interest in them.

To me, there are two Marvel films in 2024 and 2025, Deadpool and FF.

I might get vaguely interested in the Falcon movie if they play up the Hulk angle between now and release.

I think releasing those 3 so closely in 2025, won't help the Fantastic 4 the most. I don't care about another Captain America movie (Civil War should have been the last) and I most definitely don't care about Thunderbolts*. But those two not doing well (at the box office and critically) would only hinder The Fantastic 4's chances. So in a way, I want those two to succeed, so it won't affect The Fantastic 4 in July.

The problem with Marvel movies these days, is there are still so many coming out(4 movies in 2024 alone) and the public are aware how can they be so interconnected, that even Sony Marvel movies like Venom/Madame Web can be seen as MCU films even if they aren't. Who knows by next year, if The Fantastic 4 would be just seen as another Marvel that will come out to Disney+ asap.

If Spider-Man 4 was coming out in May 2025, instead of Thunderbolts* or if we are getting Fantastic 4 after Deadpool/Wolverine, I would say Fantastic 4's chances at the box office would be much higher. But thats not the case.

 

[lenz]

I just realised how close it was to Gunn's Superman film. Considering that film has an earlier date set in the same month, I think they should have moved this to December. That is the perfect time regardless for the First Family.

 

[psylockolussus]

After the Marvels' flopping, I'm not sure if Q4 would be a good idea. First weekend of May would have been fantastic.

 

[lenz]

After the Marvels' flopping, I'm not sure if Q4 would be a good idea. First weekend of May would have been fantastic.

Nobody was surprised the Marvels flopped though, or they shouldnt have been.

Remember, Aquaman and NWH were massive in December. The core of the FF is family, so no better time really. Also preferable then fighting for real estate with James Gunn's Superman revival, which will be huge as well.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

December is off limits because of Avatar. No way will Disney release both in the same month. Maybe November, when Blade get's delayed again.

 

[Spider-Fan]

We will see. I think one of then will end up moving a few weeks either up or down.

 

[Stark Bauer]

How would you all react when F4 makes over $150 M opening weekend?

 

[psylockolussus]

How would you all react when F4 makes over $150 M opening weekend?

I think that is too good to be true, I would be shocked.

Aside from the actual movie being good if not great. The movie needs to be marketed very well. Similar to how Guardians and Black Panther opened huge despite not having a previous movie.

 

[lenz]

Like we discussed, I would love this to happen. Closer to the holidays, the ultimate comic book family film.

 

[psylockolussus]

February or May 2026 for Marvel Studios' The Fantastic 4: First Steps would be a better release date than July 2025.

I don't want to wait several more months just to see the film, but better box office numbers will help the IP to secure a sequel.

Interesting how Marvel Studios didn't announce the February 2026 film, maybe it would move there? And I'm not totally opposed to having 2 MCU movies again per year.

 

[psylockolussus]

Okay, now Brave New World is out to mixed results. Is anyone here nervous for Fantastic 4, because there's no goodwill from Brave New World that would help this film. Then there's still Thunderbolts* which imo a harder sell than Captain America without Steve Rogers.

Come July, I would like this reboot to have amazing news like Deadpool & Wolverine last year. The good news is the teaser trailer got good reactions and marketing is off to a good start.

 

[Lily Adler]

Added a poll

 

[lenz]

$675m - $775m.

With a better release date I think it reaches the the higher end, if not more.

The trailer has received a ton of views, but it wasn't really an action heavy trailer beyond the last 10 seconds. It was mainly teasing the family dynamic and aethetic of the movie, which I appreciated.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hope at least four hundred million worldwide. Jurassic World and Superman are big competition.

 

[lenz]

I hope at least four hundred million worldwide. Jurassic World and Superman are big competition.

This new trailer seems pretty decent (if not tepid) in response online, but certainly nothing to the level of must-see WOW, like the first Avengers trailer, Infinity War, or No Way Home. I think those days are well over with this regime. It wasn't going to get to that level anyway, the genre as a "sure thing" is on its last legs in the zeitgeist, but the trailer should have aspired to it at least. Maybe the result of a tight shooting/release schedule where some scenes aren't ready for primetime.

Silver Surfer looks ridiculous and the trailer just fails to inspire in general imho. Maybe I'm wrong (I hope I am and this surprises), but this looks like it may be 500 m tops atm.

 

[Chris B]

I'm guessing somewhere in the range of $700-850 million. The Marvel brand still has some weight despite their recent problems and my hunch is that this will be a crowd pleaser. As I also suspect with Superman, I think this will benefit from audiences being receptive to a lighthearted, optimistic film right now.

 

[Mysteryman]

I'm guessing somewhere in the range of $700-850 million. The Marvel brand still has some weight despite their recent problems and my hunch is that this will be a crowd pleaser. As I also suspect with Superman, I think this will benefit from audiences being receptive to a lighthearted, optimistic film right now.

POSITIVITY!

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm guessing somewhere in the range of $700-850 million. The Marvel brand still has some weight despite their recent problems and my hunch is that this will be a crowd pleaser. As I also suspect with Superman, I think this will benefit from audiences being receptive to a lighthearted, optimistic film right now.

$700 to $850 million are such a huge number to achieve these days, especially if its not from a well tested brand. In the mid 2010s, this is probably more possible but its 2025.

 

[GreenKToo]

Both F4 and Superman have to overcome the bad taste previous films left.
I think both films will do pretty good tho, but not as well as fans want.

The good news is, both will probably be well received by critics and the public and the hunger for more will be there.

I plan on seeing both, as I'm sure most people will.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm holding a prayer circle for the Fantastic 4. This reboot should have been out before Eternals, Brave New World and Thunderbolts*. This is also definitely more important than the 2021 Black Widow movie and Thor 4, as there's a lot more at stake with the success of this film.

Superman would be fine. Supergirl next year though? That would be a hard sell.

 

[FlareKnight]

I really don't know with this one. 700 million may be the fair guess for it. I don't think it will do as badly as BNW and especially not as bad as the films below that. But I'm not sure it is a contender for the billion club either.

My own hype isn't that high. Deadpool and Wolverine reached that height and was fun enough to justify it. Did an amazing job with trailers in hyping it up. But there's just not really anything grabbing me at this point with Fantastic Four. I don't hate the actors, but I don't love the cast either. If this was during the MCU's peak then yeah a billion would be a given honestly. But we're not there anymore. People aren't as quick to trust the MCU (not unless you are a movie making fun of it).

It's going to be interesting with Superman being out as well. I do think that will do better than this. They can both thrive to be sure if they are good movies. I think that will hit what a Superman movie should be. Hopefully F4 is so good that it thrives as well.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think $500 million is the ceiling for this, globally.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think 550 mill (ish)
Perhaps 600 mill.

 

[psylockolussus]

Good news, Thunderbolts* are getting good reviews so even if Thunderbolts* underperformed at the box office , so we can now cross out the possibility of it being terrible like Brave New World to hinder Fantastic 4's success at the box office.

 

[psylockolussus]

$88M Captain America: Brave New World
$74M Thunderbolts*

Should we expect higher or lower opening weekend numbers for The Fantastic 4: First Steps?