narrows101
Guest
- Joined
- Aug 16, 2005
- Messages
- 5,039
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 31
The business of making movies.
http://www.hollywoodwiretap.com/?module=news&action=story&id=4537
http://www.hollywoodwiretap.com/?module=news&action=story&id=4537
EXCLUSIVE: WHY 'PIRATES 4' COULD FLY AND WHY 'X-4' DIDN'T HAPPEN
By Josh Young
Its blockbuster or bust. Nothing epitomizes the current studio culture more than 20th Century Foxs decision not to go forward with a fourth installment of X-Men, but rather to create a spin-off Wolverine franchise. Nothing, that is, except Disneys newest juggernaut, Pirates of the Caribbean.
Its fitting then that Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest recently passed X-Men: The Last Stand (third in that series) as the top grossing movie of 2006. From here, however, the two franchises are going in opposite directions.
Fox, the studio with a reputation for making the toughest deals in town, says the X-Men franchise has run its creative course. Despite director Bret Ratner stepping in for Bryan Singer and delivering the goods on the third X-Men movie, with $458 million worldwide and counting, Fox co-chairmen Tom Rothman and Jim Gianopulos had decided even before the film opened not to develop a fourth installment.
They drive the toughest deal, no question about it, one top manager says. They run a solid, no-nonsense business, but there will be opportunities they miss because of this management style. X-Men may be one of them.
Disney, however, had already started production on a third Pirates movie before releasing the second one on July 7. Reportedly subtitled At Worlds End, the third Pirates film opens May 27, 2007.
The hardest part was getting everybody together at the same time period, producer Jerry Bruckheimer told darkhorizons.com. Thats why we made two movies. To get Gore (Verbiniski), (writers Ted) Elliot and (Terry) Rossio, the three lead actors thats the hard part. Scheduling is really difficult. Then making the deal, especially when you come off a successful picture everybody deserves more money, and of course Disney always wants to make it for less. So you have a real problem.
The cost of the second and third Pirates together has been reported as high as $450 million. But with all the production delays due to constant weather problems and a long hiatus improvised into the schedule of the third film, one producer who works with Disney claims the cost is over a half a billon for both films. Production on the third film ramps up again this fall for 70 additional days of shooting.
A 'PIRATES 4' SCORECARD
Historically, the decision to greenlight second and third installments simultaneously has met with mixed results. New Line scored big with this strategy on Lord of the Rings, while on Warners Matrix and Universals Back to the Future franchises, when number two didnt deliver, number three petered out at the box office.
But never mind history and hurricanes. Theres already talk that Disney is thinking about a fourth installment. For his part, director Gore Verbinski told Entertainment Weekly he hoped there was no reason to ever make a pirate movie again, but Johnny Depp countered with never say never.
If there is a Pirates 4, look for it to be the most expensive motion picture ever made when budget and first-dollar gross are taken into consideration.
According to a rival studio executive and several agents queried, the gross out on the second and third Pirates movies is 32.5 percent, which is above the artificial first-dollar gross topline of 27.5 percent that studios claim they will not exceed these days.
The exec tallies the backend as follows: Depp 20; Bruckheimer 10 (up from his customary 7.5), and Verbinski 2.5 of first-dollar gross. Two of the agents tallied it differently among the principles, but came up with the same 32.5 total.
On another sequel, Disney not only has to contend with the same backend but it will have to sweeten Orlando (Bloom) and Keiras (Knightley) deals by putting even more gross out, or paying more upfront, explains one agent. The only way they dont go above 32.5 is if Gore doesnt come back.
Bloom and Knightley reportedly received huge salary raises on Dead Mans Chest. (Blooms take was pegged at $11.9 million for the both films, plus 2.5-3 percent of adjusted gross.) For a fourth film, both could easily ask for first-dollar gross and/or upfront raises.
But will Disney even make any money on Dead Mans Chest?
You bet it will.
In its first 17 days, Dead Mans Chest grossed $321 million. Assuming a 90/10 studio/theater split the first weekend falling to 80/20 the second week and to 70/30 the third, Disney has collected roughly $269 million domestically. Of that amount, it will have paid out about $87 million in first dollar gross, leaving the studio with $182 million after just 17 days. Add the $214 million-and-rapidly climbing foreign receipts as well as home video yet to come and big-time returns are at hand.
The studios internal projected worldwide gross for Dead Mans Chest is upwards of $700 million, according to one agent who recently spoke to Disney chairman Dick Cook. Even with bonzo production and marketing costs and 32.5 of the gross out, profits will still be in the stratosphere once all ancillaries are counted.
'THE NEW MOUSE ORDER'
Despite a potential $250-300 million price tag, Pirates 4 fits snugly into the studios newly revamped business plan. Many blanched at the idea of 12-13 Disney-branded films per year (down from roughly 18) and significantly less studio overhead. How will Disney fill its production pipelines, they asked? How will it maintain revenue and profit levels? Making bigger movies better seems to be one answer. Sure, "Pirates 4" will cost a lot of loot, but all the money goes to the movie a near-sure thing and not to dubious development deals and iffy mid-level movies.
The new mouse order, carps one agent.
Back to X-Men and Fox. With The Last Stand battling its way past half a billion at the box office, why not do a fourth?
Because its too expensive. The Last Stand cost roughly $210 million and carries gross players in Marvel Entertainment, stars Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry, producer Lauren Shuler Donner and director Brett Ratner.
X-Men has 16 characters to bring back, explains one of the participants. Thats why it was such an expensive movie. Its easier to make Pirates 4. You dont have such a huge cast. Plus, since X Men has come out a lot has happened. Halles won an Oscar. Ian McKellen has been in Lord of the Rings. All of that affects the movie.
And Fox is not Disney. The studio generally insists on its tentpoles costing less and its talent profits being lower than others do.
Consider the saga of Used Guys, the Jay Roach comedy that was to star Jim Carrey and Ben Stiller. Due to a miscommunication between business affairs and production, the budget jumped from $104 to $113 million, with 27.5 percent of the gross out to the three creatives, according to one executive involved in the deal. Foxs Rothman and Gianopulos simply pulled the plug.
Tom (Rothman) hates the idea of paying directors and giving final cut, except to certain artists, says one manager who does business regularly with Fox. On Wolverine, they still have to pay Hugh and Marvel. Maybe they dont feel its worth it to pay Lauren Shuler Donner and Halle Berry and whoever directs.
Foxs reasoning is, rather than risking $200-plus million and paying out more than 25 percent of the gross on another X-Men movie, why not make a Wolverine that costs far less and carries fewer gross profit participants?
Meanwhile over at Disney, if Pirates 4 doesnt get the go-ahead, Bruckheimer will be plenty busy putting together National Treasure 2 and maybe even a 2/3 combo if things go well for Pirates 3 in May.
So which studios plan will work? Maybe both. Foxs tightfistedness has already delivered years of record profits according to Rothman and Gianopulos. And with a franchise like Pirates, its pretty hard for Disney to go wrong.
