November 6th, 2012: Campaigning, Early Voting, Election Day, And The Results!

[Matt]

I'd rather Hillary stay on, but I think she's headed out as well. John Kerry, not sure how I feel on that. He was an awful presidential candidate, but I think in general his hearts atleast somewhat in the right place on foreign policy. Either way I think he'll pale in comparison to Clinton.

She's already announced that she is retiring next year, so yeah, she is gone. Kerry wouldn't be terrible. He is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has been on that committee for a long, long time. He knows his stuff, diplomatically. He is well known and well respected. He wouldn't be bad. I'd prefer him to Susan Rice.

 

[dnno1]

I'm not sure when it started, but I'm pretty sure it's been around for awhile. It just varies state to state. My parents are procrastinators, they don't vote until the deadline, they don't leave for work until the last second, ect. I'm the opposite, lol. I just like to get it out of the way early, at a time I'm comfortable with. Rather than waiting til the last second, squeezing it in in whatever way I can, wading through the crowds.

Well Absentee voting has been going on since 1864, but in-person early voting has been a practice since the late 1980's. I believe that Texas was one of the first states to allow that practice in 1988. It has been a growing practice ever since.

 

[Slushy]

I think 2008 was when it was "cool" to vote early. Can't say I blame them either. I voted early and saved an hour of my time compared to the two hour and half wait on Election Day last time.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

I must have been lucky, because I've never had any kind of significant wait voting on Election Day.

 

[bullets]

Damn, so why have I never heard of early voting before? lol

If it makes you feel any better I've voted twice and haven't heard about it until now.

I think it might be more common in different states. Most of the people I know in Florida have already voted.

 

[Slushy]

Romney: 241 (wins Florida and Nevada)

Obama: 297 (wins the rest of the swing states)

My prediction for Tuesday night.

 

[Hobgoblin]

I voted yesterday. I was surprised at how long the line was. I left the voting booth at 4:30, just as it was supposed to close and there was still a line of people out the door and down the hall. I was going to wait until Tuesday but with my class in the morning and voting likely being busy that day, I got it over with.

Cant wait to see the results come in. I'm just glad my night class is canceled.

 

[Marx]

I think early voting is a great thing. Alot of people across the country have taken advantage of it. I'm also glad that republican attempts to surpress the vote here in Ohio were struck down by the state's supreme court.

 

[Paradoxium]

She's already announced that she is retiring next year, so yeah, she is gone. Kerry wouldn't be terrible. He is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has been on that committee for a long, long time. He knows his stuff, diplomatically. He is well known and well respected. He wouldn't be bad. I'd prefer him to Susan Rice.

I am rooting for Susan Rice. For the wrong reasons of course t:

 

[Marx]

I hope Susan Rice gets the boot.

 

[Raiden]

Is there a way to find out where's the nearest voting booth in my area? I'm thinking about voting early (Monday) and not wait until the Election Day to cast my vote.

 

[Excel]

I hope it's Kerry just so Scott Brown can bet back in the senate after Warren beats him.

 

[SV Fan]

I hope it's Kerry just so Scott Brown can bet back in the senate after Warren beats him.

That's funny, what if the Democrats are up in the Senate 51-49, do they pluck Kerry from there. lol

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Romney: 241 (wins Florida and Nevada)

Obama: 297 (wins the rest of the swing states)

My prediction for Tuesday night.

I think it will be Obama 303, Romney 235.

Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
Romney wins North Carolina and Florida.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Obama will win. Romney will take Florida and North Carolina. Obama will take Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania and of course the big prize of Ohio. The only one I can see going Rom's way is Colorado, but I still think Obama will take it in a squeaker.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I've also voted (for the President).

Truth? I haven't voted for a U.S. President since I supported Bill Clinton's re-election eons ago. I know it's sad, but...I've been disillusioned for a looooonnng-ass time!

 

[Schlosser85]

I voted for Kerry and Obama, and would have voted for Gore if I'd been old enough. I'm not nearly as enthusiastic about Obama this time though. It's more a vote against Romney than a vote for Obama.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

I voted for Kerry and Obama, and would have voted for Gore if I'd been old enough. I'm not nearly as enthusiastic about Obama this time though. It's more a vote against Romney than a vote for Obama.

I hear this a lot, that people are more voting against Romney than they are for Obama, but I just don't get it...

I mean, I acknowledge that I don't follow politics as much as a lot of people, although I do feel that I am more informed than most as well, but... I just don't really see what Obama has done to hesitate me from voting for him.

I certainly can come up with a list of things he's done that I am in favor of...

Perhaps I can be enlightened, but I can't really do the same for things he's done that I oppose.

 

[Matt]

My final prediction:

I'm thinking 281 to 265, Obama.

Of the swing states, Obama carries PA, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada

Romney carries Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and slightly edges out Colorado.

Unless of course the polling is inaccurate which a lot of pundits are suggesting. That being said, while I think it'll be closer than a 2 point race in many of these swing states (I think a few of these will come down to fractions of percentages)....I think Obama will edge Romney out in both Ohio and Wisconsin and that will give him the race.

Keep in mind though neither candidate needs Ohio. It is a hell of a lot easier with Ohio, but if Romney takes PA (not nearly as close as polls indicate) or Wisconsin as well as Colorado, he doesn't need Ohio. If Obama takes PA, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado, he doesn't need Ohio. That is what makes this race interesting. Ohio is important, but a loss in Ohio doesn't necessarily kill either candidate (as was the case in 2000 and 2004).

All this being said, I think that Romney will narrowly win the popular vote. Both sides are going to look like such hypocrites if it happens. 2000 is still fresh in a lot of people's minds and we're going to see a total role reversal. Democrats will be defending the Electoral College system where as Republicans will be outraged by it. The exact opposite of 2000. So much hypocrisy.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

My final prediction:

I'm thinking 281 to 265, Obama.

Of the swing states, Obama carries PA, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada

Romney carries Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and slightly edges out Colorado.

Unless of course the polling is inaccurate which a lot of pundits are suggesting. That being said, while I think it'll be closer than a 2 point race in many of these swing states (I think a few of these will come down to fractions of percentages)....I think Obama will edge Romney out in both Ohio and Wisconsin and that will give him the race.

Keep in mind though neither candidate needs Ohio. It is a hell of a lot easier with Ohio, but if Romney takes PA (not nearly as close as polls indicate) or Wisconsin as well as Colorado, he doesn't need Ohio. If Obama takes PA, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado, he doesn't need Ohio. That is what makes this race interesting. Ohio is important, but a loss in Ohio doesn't necessarily kill either candidate (as was the case in 2000 and 2004).

True... but per your own analysis it would seem Romney needs Ohio a lot more than Obama. Romney would have to flip two states that Kerry carried in 2004. I don't see that happening under any current scenario. If Romney is in a bad enough situation to lose Ohio, there's no way he'll be able to drag Pennsylvania and Wisconsin across the finish line.

All this being said, I think that Romney will narrowly win the popular vote. Both sides are going to look like such hypocrites if it happens. 2000 is still fresh in a lot of people's minds and we're going to see a total role reversal. Democrats will be defending the Electoral College system where as Republicans will be outraged by it. The exact opposite of 2000. So much hypocrisy.

It would be some well-suited schadenfreude, but after their initial outrage, Republicans would never seriously advocate for the abolishment of the electoral-college. If they did, the next election the Dems would not only be trying to run up the popular vote in very blue states like MA, CA and NY, but also appeal to the sizable African American minorities in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and the sizable Hispanic population in Texas and Arizona. If they had incentive to vote knowing that their vote would actually make a difference, then I think the popular-vote would become a Dem blowout in later elections (depending on circumstances of course).

 

[Paradoxium]

l this being said, I think that Romney will narrowly win the popular vote. Both sides are going to look like such hypocrites if it happens. 2000 is still fresh in a lot of people's minds and we're going to see a total role reversal. Democrats will be defending the Electoral College system where as Republicans will be outraged by it. The exact opposite of 2000. So much hypocrisy.

That is my dream scenario.

 

[Matt]

True... but per your own analysis it would seem Romney needs Ohio a lot more than Obama. Romney would have to flip two states that Kerry carried in 2004. I don't see that happening under any current scenario. If Romney is in a bad enough situation to lose Ohio, there's no way he'll be able to drag Pennsylvania and Wisconsin across the finish line.

You misread. If Romney wins Colorado and loses Ohio, he needs PA OR Wisconsin, not both.

Wisconsin is hard to predict. Voters can register at the polling place on the day of the election. Therefore the polls kinda mean **** compared to the ground game on Election Day. And I've heard numerous times that Ryan has a tremendous ground organization in Wisconsin that no one is talking about but could be a game changer.

 

[Matt]

That is my dream scenario.

If it does, I don't think we'll have an electoral college in 2016.

 

[Paradoxium]

Why not?

 

[Matt]

Why not?

Because Democrats are ball-less. We could've gotten rid of it in 2001 if we had stones, but if my party is known for anything, it is being total *****es and pushovers. Republicans on the other hand are pushy and militant to a fault. When they want something done, it gets done....results be damned. They will shut down the whole government if need be to cut a deal to eliminate the Electoral College.