November 6th, 2012: Campaigning, Early Voting, Election Day, And The Results!

[Darthphere]

Early voting over here in Florida was crazy. So glad I did absentee ballot. I mean waiting in line for 8 hours to vote? Ridiculous. Thanks Rick Scott for cutting early voting from 14 to 8 days and not allowing it today.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Even if Romney wins the PV and loses the EV (and I do not think that will happen), the GOP will think long-term and want to retain the EV for reasons I stated here.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=24580241&postcount=45

 

[Matt]

You give the irrational Republican leadership way too much credit.

 

[SentinelMind]

She's already announced that she is retiring next year, so yeah, she is gone. Kerry wouldn't be terrible. He is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has been on that committee for a long, long time. He knows his stuff, diplomatically. He is well known and well respected. He wouldn't be bad. I'd prefer him to Susan Rice.

Kerry may have the experience...but he's not a great speaker ...he's not persuasive and straight to the point...he's too stiff and more 'academic' than Obama in my opinion.

 

[SentinelMind]

The EC isn't going anywhere....Republican state legislatures benefit too much from it and as Matt said...libs are wusses.

 

[Matt]

Carolina beat Washington! According to the Redskin Rule, Romney will win on Tuesday.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

Early voting over here in Florida was crazy. So glad I did absentee ballot. I mean waiting in line for 8 hours to vote? Ridiculous. Thanks Rick Scott for cutting early voting from 14 to 8 days and not allowing it today.

8 hours to vote?? Where the bad place do you live that it's taken so long??

I've never spent more than 20 minutes in a voting precinct.

 

[Darthphere]

8 hours to vote?? Where the bad place do you live that it's taken so long??

I've never spent more than 20 minutes in a voting precinct.

During early voting?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Early voting over here in Florida was crazy. So glad I did absentee ballot. I mean waiting in line for 8 hours to vote? Ridiculous. Thanks Rick Scott for cutting early voting from 14 to 8 days and not allowing it today.

Well he had to help Romney by cutting into Obama's massive early vote advantage.

I don't see why what Rick Scott did isn't considered a form of massive voter fraud.

How obvious does it have to be?

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

During early voting?

During early and regular. This is my 3rd Presidential election, as well as various other elections, including California's governor recall election, and subsequent Governor election that elected Awwwnawld, and I've never spent any significant amount of time waiting in line to vote.

This year was the first time I did early voting, and I was in and out in a snap.

 

[Marx]

I voted for Kerry and Obama, and would have voted for Gore if I'd been old enough. I'm not nearly as enthusiastic about Obama this time though. It's more a vote against Romney than a vote for Obama.

I hear this a lot, that people are more voting against Romney than they are for Obama, but I just don't get it...

I mean, I acknowledge that I don't follow politics as much as a lot of people, although I do feel that I am more informed than most as well, but... I just don't really see what Obama has done to hesitate me from voting for him.

I certainly can come up with a list of things he's done that I am in favor of...

Perhaps I can be enlightened, but I can't really do the same for things he's done that I oppose.

I obviously voted for Obama. He has done quite a lot that I agree with. As others have said though, I'm not nearly as enthusiast as I have been before in a general election. I'm far more cynical and tired of the BS this time around.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I got 10 bucks on Romney. I think he'll come out on top in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Colorado. Obama wins Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

 

[Doomed_hero]

ill take that bet. I dont see Obama losing Iowa, Ohio or wisconsin to Romney. I think Obama's firewall is going to hold

 

[hippie_hunter]

ill take that bet. I dont see Obama losing Iowa, Ohio or wisconsin to Romney. I think Obama's firewall is going to hold

Wisconsin is the least likely state for Romney to win, I'll give you that. But Romney benefits from Scott Walker's machine and early voting is heavily up for Republicans. Voting also appears to be down in Democratic areas such as Milwaukee.

But look at how the ground game is in Iowa and Ohio:

- In Iowa the early vote gap that cushioned Obama heavily in 2008 has weakened substantially. In 2008, Obama had a 63% to 36% cushion against McCain in the early vote to crush McCain's 2% lead in election day votes giving him a 9% victory in the state. This year, the early vote is 43% Democratic to 32% Republican. Most early voting independents seem to be headed towards Obama, but the cushion that Obama had in 2008 is just gone. And then take into account the votes that will occur on election day in which GOP turn out is expected to be much, much, much higher this year than it was in 2008 and independents that will vote on election day are headed towards Romney.

- In Ohio, early voting in Democratic areas such as Cleveland are down while early voting in Republican areas are up. And again, it's expected that the GOP will get more votes on election day in Ohio by a much bigger margin than what McCain did in 2008. Romney appears to be doing better in suburban areas than what McCain did in 2008 and rural areas are looking to be horrid for Obama.

Are they guarantees for Romney, no. But I would be a bit worried if I were the Obama camp.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ill take that bet. I dont see Obama losing Iowa, Ohio or wisconsin to Romney. I think Obama's firewall is going to hold

I was about to say this also.

Romney is going to have to spend too heavy in Colorado, Virginia and especially Florida to have any chance of taking Wisconsin or Ohio.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I was about to say this also.

Romney is going to have to spend too heavy in Colorado, Virginia and especially Florida to have any chance of taking Wisconsin or Ohio.

Colorado is looking like a Romney victory, Republicans are leading the early vote. Both Romney and Obama camps are operating under the assumption that Romney is the favorite in Florida and Virginia; hence the extreme focus on Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio from both camps, while Romney is attempting to court Minnesota and Pennsylvania (where Romney is benefiting from rural and suburban areas).

 

[Matt]

The media is playing this like Obama is the front runner. But the campaigns are seeing something that we aren't. Why is Romney playing defense while Obama is on the attack? What internal numbers do they have that we don't?

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Nate Silver gave Obama a 73% chance of winning, right?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

And we know how objective Nate Silver is (Hint: he's not)!

 

[Darthphere]

How so? Genuinely curious. Seems like someone in his line of "work" would be more worried about getting it right than being bias one way or the other.

 

[SuperT]

The media is playing this like Obama is the front runner. But the campaigns are seeing something that we aren't. Why is Romney playing defense while Obama is on the attack? What internal numbers do they have that we don't?

I thought it was evident that when Romney started sending out those emails about moving into new states that it seemed to be a last ditch effort to try and save a possibly sinking ship.

Why would you try and move into new states where the chance of you winning are slim to none if you thought you had all the states you're already fighting in locked up? Didn't McCain to the same thing towards the end of the election in 2008?!

Both parties are most certainly seeing internal numbers we have no idea of.

 

[Matt]

I thought it was evident that when Romney started sending out those emails about moving into new states that it seemed to be a last ditch effort to try and save a possibly sinking ship.

Why would you try and move into new states where the chance of you winning are slim to none if you thought you had all the states you're already fighting in locked up? Didn't McCain to the same thing towards the end of the election in 2008?!

Both parties are most certainly seeing internal numbers we have no idea of.

Chuck Todd sees it as a security blanket, move into PA in case Ohio falls through. But that is a bad place of a risk. Instead of blitzing Ohio and Colorado, he is moving into PA, a much tougher battle as a plan B? You'd think all resources would be in Ohio and Colorado....unless there is something he knows that we don't.

Then again, both campaigns are so horribly run that they both might be making baffling final moves because they are run by idiots.

 

[SV Fan]

Are they guarantees for Romney, no. But I would be a bit worried if I were the Obama camp.

I know polls aren't the be all and end all of what will happen but look at the polling for the last year in Ohio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls

Out of about 75 polls Romney wins 10 of them(and most of the time by +1). Unliek alot of polls that started to go Romney's way after the first debate, Ohio always remained pro Obama.

A telltale sign for me in Ohio is that ridiculous Jeep ad Romney put out, that is basically swinging for the fences hoping nobody calls them out on that crap. Add to the fact they are now fighting for Pennsylvania with 1 week left which tells me they think they need those 20 Electoral votes.

 

[SuperT]

Chuck Todd sees it as a security blanket, move into PA in case Ohio falls through. But that is a bad place of a risk. Instead of blitzing Ohio and Colorado, he is moving into PA, a much tougher battle as a plan B? You'd think all resources would be in Ohio and Colorado....unless there is something he knows that we don't.

Then again, both campaigns are so horribly run that they both might be making baffling final moves because they are run by idiots.

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The logical thing would be as you said, blitz the heck out of Ohio or Colorado instead diverting money and time into PA.

But as you said, maybe the campaigns knows something we don't.

 

[Matt]

I know polls aren't the be all and end all of what will happen but look at the polling for the last year in Ohio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls

Out of about 75 polls Romney wins 10 of them(and most of the time by +1)

A telltale sign for me in Ohio is that ridiculous Jeep ad Romney put out, that is basically swinging for the fences hoping nobody calls them out on that crap. Add to the fact they are now fighting for Pennsylvania with 1 week left which tells me they think they need those 20 Electoral votes.

But if that were the case why go for PA? The easiest route to victory for Romney if Ohio is out of play is Wisconsin and Colorado. He takes both of those (which is a much easier task than PA if the numbers are to be believed), he wins regardless of Ohio.