November 6th, 2012: Campaigning, Early Voting, Election Day, And The Results!

[SV Fan]

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The logical thing would be as you said, blitz the heck out of Ohio or Colorado instead diverting money and time into PA.

There probably is no airtime left in Ohio to blitz. lol

 

[SV Fan]

But if that were the case why go for PA? The easiest route to victory for Romney if Ohio is out of play is Wisconsin and Colorado. He takes both of those (which is a much easier task than PA if the numbers are to be believed), he wins regardless of Ohio.

You mean one of 10 states that voted Dukakis in 1988 and has voted Democrat ever since?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

Once again polls aren't the be all and end all of what will happen but these guys

Marquette University 10/25 - 10/28 1243 LV 2.8 51 43 Obama +8

Correctly picked the winner of the Walker recall within 0.2%(it should be pointed out Real Clear Politics poll averages got it within 0.1%)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...r_recall_election_walker_vs_barrett-3056.html

 

[Matt]

If you say so. Walker and Ryan both have their machines at full force in Wisconsin and Wisconsin is damn tricky to predict due to the same day registration. My point is, if I were on the Romney campaign and rolling dice, I'd feel a bad place of a lot better trying my luck in Wisconsin than Pennsylvania. You can make excuses all you'd like SV Fan, but there is something that the campaigns know that we don't because they've been acting completely irrationally.

That said, I stand by my prediction....281 Obama, 257 Romney with Romney taking the popular vote.

 

[SV Fan]

That said, I stand by my prediction....281 Obama, 257 Romney with Romney taking the popular vote.

that's what I see it as. Nevada is as good as a lock and I think Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and New Hampshire go Obama. I am not sure about Popular vote but I see it within 1% either way

You can make excuses all you'd like SV Fan, but there is something that the campaigns know that we don't because they've been acting completely irrationally.

I could be wrong but it looks like Democrats are trying to solidify the vote while the Republicans are swinging for the fences in Pennsylvania(which either tells me they hope looking cocky helps them or they realize they are screwed in Ohio and Wisconsin)

 

[Fading]

I got 10 bucks on Romney. I think he'll come out on top in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Colorado. Obama wins Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

I'm not going to take up the bet, but I just don't see Romney taking Ohio. He hasn't led a poll there in a long time (though he has tied), and a lot of polls show Obama leading outside of the margin of error (at 4 points). On top of which Romney has pulled out of Ohio little by little to try other states. Not to mention I see his Jeep lie as pure desperation. My guess is Romney has info that leads him to believe he has more of a chance elsewhere than Ohio, so he's not betting everything there. Plus, compared to most places, Ohio is doing better now than they were when Bush left office (for instance they have lower unemployment than the national avg, and the auto industry which they rely on is much more stable). A voter in Florida may resent Obama for various reasons, but ppl in Ohio don't seem to see him in as bad of a light.

The race is close though, so who knows. I just brought up Ohio, because nothing has shown me Romney has an advantage there. He's closed the gap, but he's not leading.

 

[enterthemadness]

I got Johnson of the LP taking at least 850K votes and a shot at 1-2% a possibility in play.


I recall making a bet...with like hippie hunter...or hunter rider...hunter hippie...think I lose my sig if he doesn't get 1%... I like my chances.


lol, Romney won't win popular vote.

but I ain;t gonna bet on it...

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I am so ready for Tuesday to be here and gone. I am officially muting all TV commercial breaks right now--so sick of the vitriol.

 

[enterthemadness]

I am so ready for Tuesday to be here and gone. I am officially muting all TV commercial breaks right now--so sick of the vitriol.

You know who needs a ad...the Shamwow guy. He can do one for Obama, Romney and Johnson. It be awesome.

 

[Fading]

Gotta admit, even though I'm still following the news, I'm getting so tired of politics already, lol. I think it takes the 4 years inbetween elections for me to get out of the funk election year puts me in, to even start wanting to talk politics again.

I'm especially tired of the commercial of the Chinese speaker talking about how the US now, "works for us", commercial though. I don't watch TV much (though because of the election I'm watching it much more than usual, before I pretty much only occasionally watched Pickers, and Pawn Star), but I see that commercial once every day or two.

 

[SV Fan]

I'm especially tired of the commercial of the Chinese speaker talking about how the US now, "works for us", commercial though. I don't watch TV much (though because of the election I'm watching it much more than usual, before I pretty much only occasionally watched Pickers, and Pawn Star), but I see that commercial once every day or two.

Just be happy you don't live in Michigan(this one was from the Superbowl)

[YT]TkQAalcsg5E[/YT]

 

[Fading]

Just be happy you don't live in Michigan(this one was from the Superbowl)

[YT]TkQAalcsg5E[/YT]

....Yeah, I can see how that could get annoying. Don't get me wrong, I do think we need to do something about our debt, and jobs being shipped to China. However political ads are borderlining racism towards the Chinese ppl anymore. There's another campaiging thing I saw on the news the other day where they're sending out flyers that look like Chinese take out boxes, with a pair of chopsticks grabbing on to dollars that you can pull out from inside. The writing on it has several Chinese food puns on it, ugh.

Some of the ads aren't so bad though. Mourdoch, the guy who said rape is God's will, he's been getting blitzed, I actually enjoy those.

[YT]10uRgyXkbqg[/YT]

There's another like this one that mentions extreme ideas, and plays the rape comment as well. I saw a counter ad his campaign put out saying the Democrats are just playing nasty politics, and twisting his words, that it's time to end partisonship, and work together. Which is pretty obviously what he's against, given he said he wants to end bipartisonship, lol. It's so much fun to watch politicians twist themselves into pretzels over their own words, lol.

 

[Excel]

The media is playing this like Obama is the front runner. But the campaigns are seeing something that we aren't. Why is Romney playing defense while Obama is on the attack? What internal numbers do they have that we don't?

No new numbers, that is how you win (offense), and that is how you lose (defense) in contemporary politics. Find any moment throughout the entire race where Romney surged, and Romney was seen as the aggressor and Obama on the defense. Find any moment the President surged, and Romney slumped, and you will find Obama on the offense, and Mitt on the defense. Even through the GOP primaries. When Romney attacked, his #s improved. When Romney tried to be "above the pray", he lost Iowa to RICK SANTORUM. He got killed in SC by Newt Gingrich.

I think it says more about the modern American voting public than anything else. Offense wins. The Obama campaign is clearly heading into election day more confident than Romneys. Guy's like Nate Silver or Dick Morris and others are simply clowns who shouldnt be considered. What should be considered is the fact that Axelrod and Plouffe are the top experts in modern political warfare, and they both seem like thy would be genuinely stunned if Obama lost. Karl Rove even noted today, something along the lines of "I do not know where this, 'if we are even, we are winning' sentiment is coming from within the Republican party. Incumbents almost always outperform polls, in both state and nationals elections". The facts are, Obama has the obvious lead in POLLS, and that is why the media favors him.

Frankly, it would not surprise me if Romney win. I think the popular vote will be very close, in fact I would bet money Romney either wins or comes with .2-.2.3% of beating Obama in it. But the electoral college...Obama's path to victory is much easier than Romneys, that is just tough to deny.


The Romneys recent campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc is probably more due to that fact, than anything else. They are down in Ohio. My real, honest bet is the Romney campaign realized

1) Even with Ohio, we will need more states
2) We are losing in Ohio, so we will clearly need more states

Hence, efforts in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc all were upped. I think it was due to the fact that they KNOW they are down when it comes to the electoral college, and being realistic, realized they greatly need to increase their potential routes to the White House. It isnt out of overconfidence it is out of raw #s. They need to be careful, because Romneys standing in FLA and Virginia has quietly collapsed all the while. Mitt campaign probably isnt that worried about, because they were not going to win with JUST FLA and Virginia anyway. they are probably hoping, if not expecting, those states to go Romney; but they knew they needed more anyway and hence had to divert resources.

 

[SV Fan]

Hence, efforts in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc all were upped. I think it was due to the fact that they KNOW they are down when it comes to the electoral college, and being realistic, realized they greatly need to increase their potential routes to the White House. It isnt out of overconfidence it is out of raw #s. They need to be careful, because Romneys standing in FLA and Virginia has quietly collapsed all the while. Mitt campaign probably isnt that worried about, because they were not going to win with JUST FLA and Virginia anyway. they are probably hoping, if not expecting, those states to go Romney; but they knew they needed more anyway and hence had to divert resources.

I don't think the Republicans will win Pennsylvania, but I am surprised they didn't try harder for the past couple months. I am not saying they had to put in 150M like they put into Florida and Ohio but instead of oversaturating both those states with non stop commercials, why not take like 10M dollars you dumped into both of those states and play a few commercials in Pennsylvania the past month or so

 

[Slushy]

It doesn't matter what you think. I'm going to put this in terms that you will understand. I'll be the guy standing with my hands raised high after it's all said and done as the headline reads what I predicted: Barack Obama whips Mitt Romney's ash on Election Day!!!

 

[terry78]

They claim with all the weird **** each state is doing it won't even be done tomorrow.

 

[SV Fan]

They claim with all the weird **** each state is doing it won't even be done tomorrow.

Well that depends if you can find 1 state that makes the difference in electoral vote that you can find something wrong with it will be contested(ie say Obama wins 281-257 and you can find reason to challenge Ohio(18) it will be challenged, now say Obama wins Colorado and Virginia 303-235 then I don't see things being contested).

From my understanding in Ohio is the vote is within 1% their is an automatic recount and in Colorado it's 0.5%.

What I want to see is if the recount is like 2000, if the Republicans will call Romney a poor sport like they said about Gore(assuming all signs point to Obama winning)

 

[dnno1]

The media is playing this like Obama is the front runner. But the campaigns are seeing something that we aren't. Why is Romney playing defense while Obama is on the attack? What internal numbers do they have that we don't?

None. The race is close (just like the polls are saying) and the Obama camp doesn't want their voters to just assume they are going to win and not vote. They also want to try and sway any other independent voters that might still be undecided (as if there still are).

 

[Marx]

I know polls aren't the be all and end all of what will happen but look at the polling for the last year in Ohio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls

Out of about 75 polls Romney wins 10 of them(and most of the time by +1). Unliek alot of polls that started to go Romney's way after the first debate, Ohio always remained pro Obama.

A telltale sign for me in Ohio is that ridiculous Jeep ad Romney put out, that is basically swinging for the fences hoping nobody calls them out on that crap. Add to the fact they are now fighting for Pennsylvania with 1 week left which tells me they think they need those 20 Electoral votes.

I've seen that ad. It really reinforces the Romney campaign aide's comments about the campaign "not being dictated by fact checkers". I think every campaign stretches the truth here and there but the Romney campaign has been so blatant and unapologetic in their lies...it blows my mind.

I am so ready for Tuesday to be here and gone. I am officially muting all TV commercial breaks right now--so sick of the vitriol.

I hear that. I don't think I could tell you when the last non-political commercial I saw was...

 

[Bathead]

Yeah, and I haven't been answering the phone all day, the only calls I seem to be getting the past few days are political robo-calls.

 

[Fading]

None. The race is close (just like the polls are saying) and the Obama camp doesn't want their voters to just assume they are going to win and not vote. They also want to try and sway any other independent voters that might still be undecided (as if there still are).

Good point. When the ppl voting for you get complacent, and believe they have the election in the bag, they might feel less stress to vote. By making them concerned the win is iffy, they might feel more inclined to vote. Also, even if losing, you have to put on a strong face. If your side feels defeated, before even stepping in the booth, it can hurt you even more.

Panic is what Michelle Bachman is doing.

There's also the future impact to think about. If formerly solid Red or Blue states come close, it changes the map from then on. If (hypothetically) Obama barely won NY, then in the future Republicans might see NY as being in play. So it's worth it (if you're a team player) to make sure you solidly win that state.

 

[Marx]

I would love to see Michelle Bachmann lose her re-election bid...

 

[SuperT]

Unfortunately that won't happen knowing the makeup of her area that vote her every year.

 

[Sun_Down]

As far as I can see, exactly one poll (Rasmussen) has Romney in contention for Ohio and thus the election. It seems hard to see a path to victory for ol' Mittens.

 

[chaseter]

At this point, I only want Romney to win so Colbert has to eat crow for 4 years. Other than that, it could go either way. I am going to play Halo 4 and find out Wednesday morning who won.

 

[redfirebird2008]

At this point, I only want Romney to win so Colbert has to eat crow for 4 years. Other than that, it could go either way. I am going to play Halo 4 and find out Wednesday morning who won.

If the likes of Florida, Virginia, and Ohio are truly as close as the polls indicate, I don't think you'll be finding out the winner on Wednesday. It's gonna drag out for weeks. Both sides have lawyered up and I fully expect them both to accuse the other of cheating. Also look for the lawyers to demand a very time-consuming audit of the votes. That way they can bill even more hours to each side.