Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Kirk Langstrom]

Although Shrek and POTC came out, kids still love Spider-Man most! I just got back from Walmart and let me just say the experience was - awesome!!!!

This is off topic, but I just got back from Walmart and everywhere I went small boys were talking about - not Shrek- not Pirates... yep, that's right our favorite web slinger himself- Spider-Man!!!!

In the toy section, that is still the biggest buzz- I didn't see one kid or parent looking at any of the Pirate or Shrek toys. Lol.

And if this one kid's reaction to Venom or black suit Spider-Man (depending on knowledge of the characters) definitely loved the darkness, he pointed an action figure out to his mother and went, "mom- look- it's evil Spider-Man!" I'm figuring they all fell in love with one of my favorite aspects of the Spidey mythos as well, the black suit saga with Venom.

Let's just say as a Spider-Man fan, almost a month later to see this reception still really made my day.

Absolutely. I took my wife & daughter to see AWE yesterday (dont stone me to death, fellas; i've now see Spidey3 6 times, 2 of those times with my Johnny Depp-loving ladies, lol t: ), and with three summer blockbusers at the cineplex, there was a line to get in. As we waited, i heard many parents asking their children what they wanted to see, and nearly ALL of them wanted to see Spider-Man 3.

It brought a tear to my eye.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

May 26, 2007

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: 'Pirates' softer-than-expected!; P3 Friday only #10 all-time single day gross; 3-day of $105.5M, far behind 'SM3' and 'Shrek 3'; 'AWE' still headed for 4-day of $127.5M and 4 1/2-day of $144.5M

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY AM: “Aaaaaaaargh!” That’s probably what Disney execs are saying this morning. One of the three major May sequels was bound to disappoint, and it appears that it’ll be Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.

I made a round of calls to studio execs this morning, and my 3-day and 4-day estimates are unchanged (scroll down to read them in my Friday PM update). The consensus is that Pirates: At World's End will have a 3-day of approximately $105.5M (No. 7 all-time), a 4-day Memorial Day weekend of $127.5M (#1 all-time) and a 5-day of $144.5M. Shrek the Third will score an estimated $55M for the 3-day and a likely $70M for the 4-day, while Spider-Man 3 should grab $15.5M and $19M respectively.

$ 19 for Spider-Man 3 ? Not bad at all. $ 15.5 for 3 days would be about a 50 % drop. Once again, not bad. Would give it around 308 domestic.

That's GREAT man!

Our fellow Hypemember, SlySpyder, blasted many of us the other day, for being fearful of Pirates...turns out HE was right after all: Spidey's weekend holds.

Dont know who will win the final battle by Summer's end, but Spidey just won a MAJOR victory this week end.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Once again, I called it, and people said I was stupid. IN YOUR FACE!! SM's opening record will stand for years to come baby!

Pirates 2 sucked, therefore people weren't that excited for 3. I've been saying this.

I'll be so happy when(not if) Spider-Man hits $900M WW and Shrek and Pirates will be lagging behind.

Ah, there you are! Hadnt seen your post yet.

Yes; you called it!

Im embarassed by my lack of Spidey-faith.

As pennance, i sentence myself to seeing SM3 six MORE times, by Summer's end.

 

[ultimatefan]

Once again, I called it, and people said I was stupid. IN YOUR FACE!! SM's opening record will stand for years to come baby!

Pirates 2 sucked, therefore people weren't that excited for 3. I've been saying this.

I'll be so happy when(not if) Spider-Man hits $900M WW and Shrek and Pirates will be lagging behind.

When I said POTC2 wasn´t as well-liked as the numbers suggested, a lot of people gave me a hard time on that. Now here´s the evidence. It´s the Matrix Reloaded effect. I haven´t seen Shrek3 or POTC3 yet, but I seriously suspect Spidey 3 will remain as the best and highest-grossing of the big threequels of the summer.

 

[Carp Man]

May 27, 2007

SATURDAY ESTIMATES: 'Pirates 3' steady with an estimated $41.3M; 'Shrek the Third' w/$20.6M

by Steve Mason

Captain Jack has sailed to a very solid, steady Saturday. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) generated an estimated $41.3M Saturday, only a 4% drop from it’s Friday haul of $43M setting a course for a new 4-day Memorial Day weekend record. If the number holds up, P3: AWE’s Saturday will be the all-time #11 single gross following Friday’s all-time 10th-best take.

Disney’s 3-day Thursday thru Saturday gross stands at an estimated $98.3M. Although the Spider-Man 3 (Sony) 3-day opening weekend record of $151M is very safe, Pirates 3 will easily top X-Men: The Last Stand for the all-time 4-day Memorial Day weekend.

My sources are now saying that At World’s End will likely score a 3-day of $118M-$120M, a 4-day of $142M-$145M and a 5-day of $159M-$162M.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $41.3M – down 4% [$98.3M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $20.6M – up 43% [$185.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $5.7M – up 47% [$299.2M cume]


http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/05/saturday_estima.html

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

When I said POTC2 wasn´t as well-liked as the numbers suggested, a lot of people gave me a hard time on that. Now here´s the evidence. It´s the Matrix Reloaded effect. I haven´t seen Shrek3 or POTC3 yet, but I seriously suspect Spidey 3 will remain as the best and highest-grossing of the big threequels of the summer.

And also....all the summer movies of last year were crap and scared of Pirate2 anyway....so it didn't have much competition last year either. It was the only real event movie of the summer last year.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

I think Spidey will keep the record of the summer. Shrek 3 will drop fast cause there's another animated movie coming soon...Surfs up. Kids love Penguins these days...then there's Pixars's rat movie...and then Simpsons. Shrek is going down IMO.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I think Spidey will keep the record of the summer. Shrek 3 will drop fast cause there's another animated movie coming soon...Surfs up. Kids love Penguins these days...then there's Pixars's rat movie...and then Simpsons. Shrek is going down IMO.

i saw the preview for that rat movie. it looked pretty funny.

 

[LegendaryCaleb]

oceans 13 looks pretty good(huge oceans fan)...thats a good movie comin soon..not sayin spidey should watch out tho lol...no huge deal in those sells

 

[Downhere]

Showbizdata has estimates for Saturday putting Pirates even lower than FM had it...but SM3 increased pretty well to around 5.6...should pass 300 today and be at around 307 by Monday.

1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLDS END BVI 4,362 37,701,000 8,643 n/a 94,701,000
2. SHREK THE THIRD DREAMWORKS 4,122 20,769,000 5,039 -55% 185,467,631
3. SPIDER-MAN 3 SONY 4,324 5,588,000 1,292 -55% 299,066,576

 

[SLYspyder]

You guys are all stupid[for your predictions], I'm really sorry to say.

MARK MY WORDS: Pirates will NOT take back Spider-Man's opening weekend record. That record is set until the next Spider-Man movie comes out.

That's GREAT man!

Our fellow Hypemember, SlySpyder, blasted many of us the other day, for being fearful of Pirates...turns out HE was right after all: Spidey's weekend holds.

Dont know who will win the final battle by Summer's end, but Spidey just won a MAJOR victory this week end.

Yup, I sure did. I didn't want to be a bad guy, but I had to be. Thanks for the acknowledgement.

 

[Mr Jide]

Sly, I can relate to your sig.

 

[DarthAlani]

This bad news for pirates. No records at all it will not win the year. Spidey might have a chance after all.

 

[Downhere]

Mojo has POTC 3 pegged at 112.5 million for the 3-day.

Spidey numbers should be posted soon.

 

[Visionary]

Pirates 3 seem to have crashed pretty hard, I don't mind admitting I was wrong, I thought it was going to have a mega-huge cume this weekend. With movies like Ocean 13 and Fantastic Four 2 swiftly approaching, I just don't know what's going to happen to ol' Jack.

 

[Carp Man]

Weekend estimates are in thru Sunday. Updates below. $ 112.5 for Pirates. $ 13.7 for Spider-Man 3.

 

[Downhere]

Pirates 3 seem to have crashed pretty hard, I don't mind admitting I was wrong, I thought it was going to have a mega-huge cume this weekend. With movies like Ocean 13 and Fantastic Four 2 swiftly approaching, I just don't what's going to happen to ol' Jack.

Same here, I was more realistic and then all the Hype got to me. With people over at BOM saying presales were higher than SM3 and this and that...oh well, it still did great. I mean, anyone who complains about a 110+ opening weekend is delusional.

 

[Retroman]

Look what things have come to 112 million opening weekend is considerd 'disappointing' in this day and age.

Though the 3rd Pirates movie is a bit long it is better than no.2 IMO.

I must also confess that i too thought it would have smashed box office records left and center.

 

[Visionary]

Great news for Spider-Man 3, it just beat SM2's worldwide cume, and it's going after SM1's cume. And it's less than a million away from hitting half a billion overseas.

Domestic: $303,342,000 37.8%
+ Foreign: $499,100,000 62.2%

= Worldwide: $802,442,000

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman3.htm

 

[Carp Man]

Look what things have come to 112 million opening weekend is considerd 'disappointing' in this day and age.

Though the 3rd Pirates movie is a bit long it is better than no.2 IMO.

I must also confess that i too thought it would have smashed box office records left and center.

I think everyone thought that. Even putting in Thursdays #'s it is not enough. You put 300 million into a movie, and opening on a holiday weekend, and with the performance of 2, and you only make mabey 150 ? Disney did not advertise as heavely as they did for 2. They probibly thought after the performance of 2, it would sell itself. Someone dropped the ball. Disney cannot be happy.

 

[Tempest19]

Well you will remember this day as the day you almost catched Superheroes/Triligors/The SR box office defender.... *accidentally falls off post*

I sure didn't because alot of you guys kept telling me to wait till SM3, because SM is the new Icon. Well, you were right. So far Spidey is sinking Sparrow left and right- wonder if it stays that way.

And Carp best of luck with FF mate, you guys deserve your cloud 9 as well.

 

[Tempest19]

Absolutely. I took my wife & daughter to see AWE yesterday (dont stone me to death, fellas; i've now see Spidey3 6 times, 2 of those times with my Johnny Depp-loving ladies, lol t: ), and with three summer blockbusers at the cineplex, there was a line to get in. As we waited, i heard many parents asking their children what they wanted to see, and nearly ALL of them wanted to see Spider-Man 3.

It brought a tear to my eye.

Cool man, seems we got two demographics under our control. t:

Children & Comic Book fanboys vs. Fangirls ahhing over Depp and Bloom (repeat viewing wise).

 

[TLH]

Decent weekend gross considering the competition. Monday should be about $4+ million, and then it's a crawl to $350 million. But wow, it has a shot at 900 million worldwide.

 

[Carp Man]

Great news for Spider-Man 3, it just beat SM2's worldwide cume, and it's going after SM1's cume. And it's less than a million away from hitting half a billion overseas.

Domestic: $303,342,000 37.8%
+ Foreign: $499,100,000 62.2%

= Worldwide: $802,442,000

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman3.htm

WW it is doing excelent. The domestic is disturbing. The breakdown of domestic to overseas right now is 37.8 % domestic, 62.2 % overseas. Spider-Man 2 was, 47.7 % domestic, 52.3 % overseas. Spider-Man was, 49.1 % domestic, 50.9 % overseas. It's not as popular here, as overseas this time around. Don't know if that is because of the compentition, or what.

 

[Carp Man]

And Carp best of luck with FF mate, you guys deserve your cloud 9 as well.

Thanks. t: This movie is going to rock. Hope all you guys go to see it at least once. Their my faviorite. Spider-Man is my 2nd favorite, so It's a win, win situation this year.