Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[TLH]

WW it is doing excelent. The domestic is disturbing. The breakdown of domestic to overseas right now is 37.8 % domestic, 62.2 % overseas. Spider-Man 2 was, 47.7 % domestic, 52.3 % overseas. Spider-Man was, 49.1 % domestic, 50.9 % overseas. It's not as popular here, as overseas this time around. Don't know if that is because of the compentition, or what.

I think the world has finally taken an interest in Spider-Man.

The domestic gross of Spidey 3 will probably be about $350 million or so, meaning a $20 or so million drop from Spidey 2's $373 million. I don't know if that is a sign of quality, however, because Spidey 2 dropped $30 million from the first Spider-Man domestically and is regarded as better than the original.

Competition doesn't help if you ask me. Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 will take SOME of the audience away from Spider-Man 3. Instead of going to see it twice or three times people may say "well...I haven't seen Pirates or Shrek yet so let's go see those instead".

 

[Tempest19]

I think this is the year of the under dog... previously when fanboys was coming out, I said it was the year of the fanboys- but with that gone and the way everything seems to be moving along movie and box office wise. It's the "under dog" summer to wrap up with the actual film- under dog.

POTC2 was a giant, it was the golliath this summer- but, seems David (Spider-Man 3 and perhaps Shrek) slung goliath. Lol.

 

[Carp Man]

I think this is the year of the under dog... previously when fanboys was coming out, I said it was the year of the fanboys- but with that gone and the way everything seems to be moving along movie and box office wise. It's the "under dog" summer to wrap up with the actual film- under dog.

POTC2 was a giant, it was the golliath this summer- but, seems David (Spider-Man 3 and perhaps Shrek) slung goliath. Lol.

As comic book fans, we should want to see all the movies do well. I do, even DC movies, because it is good for the industry, and good for the fanboys on both sides. And I hope your right about the year of the under dog. FF 2 is on deck. I allready know the critics won't like it.

 

[NinjaCarm]

Ya know, seeing Spider-Man 3 has at least 2 months left in theaters I think it can do $400 million domestic. Anyone with me?

 

[Visionary]

WW it is doing excelent. The domestic is disturbing. The breakdown of domestic to overseas right now is 37.8 % domestic, 62.2 % overseas. Spider-Man 2 was, 47.7 % domestic, 52.3 % overseas. Spider-Man was, 49.1 % domestic, 50.9 % overseas. It's not as popular here, as overseas this time around. Don't know if that is because of the compentition, or what.

It's not disturbing at all, look at other big movies like Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, they make tons of more overseas than domestically. Plus, a comic book movie making over 300M is unheard of. Not every Spider-Man movie is going to function the same, be it reviews or the box office. A comic book film making more than Spider-Man WW, is something that I thought I would never see, well, maybe James Cameron's Battle Angel.

 

[Tempest19]

Ya know, seeing Spider-Man 3 has at least 2 months left in theaters I think it can do $400 million domestic. Anyone with me?

It's doing really good so far, but I think that might be a wee bit too high though- because the summer is going to get more and more and more packed as it goes on.

And why, in my opinion, POTC3 also needed to be front loaded and failed miserably at doing so.

That's why, personally, I think SM3 might already have the strongest shot as #1- if all of this "children go for SM3" most is true for everywhere. Like I said I experienced and then Captain Stacy commented on. It was great in walmart- not one kid was talking about Pirates or Shrek. Lol. It was still like the weekend after SM3 first opened up, it was amazing.

 

[NinjaCarm]

It's doing really good so far, but I think that might be a wee bit too high though- because the summer is going to get more and more and more packed as it goes on.

And why, in my opinion, POTC3 also needed to be front loaded and failed miserably at doing so.

That's why, personally, I think SM3 might already have the strongest shot as #1- if all of this "children go for SM3" most is true for everywhere. Like I said I experienced and then Captain Stacy commented on. It was great in walmart- not one kid was talking about Pirates or Shrek. Lol.

As an American Legend for the past 45 years it should be that way. That's awesome.

 

[Visionary]

Ya know, seeing Spider-Man 3 has at least 2 months left in theaters I think it can do $400 million domestic. Anyone with me?

No, I don't even see it doing 350M, it's going to start losing theaters like crazy now, especially with other big movies coming out soon. When you're the first big film out of the gate, you're also the first to start losing theater counts. Truth is, once it beats SM1's WW cume, it will have done the impossible for a comic book film. As one of the biggest franchise films, it will set its franchise on top of the food chain, in its genre and out.

 

[chaseter]

^I know...everytime I go into Walmart...I see at least one kid or one large fat sweaty guy with a Spidey toy! Spider-Man was marketed excellently. Although I was a bit dissapointed with Spider-Man this summer, I want to see him excel because I want more movies. He will be the top earner this summer and more than likely the top earner for a few summers ahead.

 

[The Caped Knight]

I can tell ya the SPIDER-MAN week here in NYC, sure as hell helped the film @ The Box Office .

 

[The Caped Knight]

No, I don't even see it doing 350M,

Truth is, once it beats SM1's WW cume, it will have done the impossible for a comic book film. As one of the biggest franchise films, it will set its franchise on top of the food chain, in its genre and out.

I said 350 Dom, I'm sticking to it to the bitter end .

I have no doubt WW it will beat & surpass movie One's record .

 

[Tempest19]

Chaseter, definitely. I went to get Limited Edition Venom because I heard it was out and definitely was not expecting the more than great reception Spider-Man is still getting there. I thought kids would be looking at Pirate toys and talking about the final battle, but nope- "mom, look, it's evil Spider-Man!" The Pirates toys weren't even looked at once. So, with that and POTC's recent performance- I have no doubt that SM3 will hold on to the top firmly.

And Kal-El, I also see 350.

 

[Visionary]

I said 350 Dom, I'm sticking to it to the bitter end .

I have no doubt WW it will beat & surpass movie One's record .

You're NOT factoring in the fact that SM3 will start losing 100s of theaters, as the new big movies rolls in.

 

[Tempest19]

Dude, I saw SR reach 200 mil when everyone said it was impossible and seemed impossible. Trust me, this movie is at the very least going to crawl to 350 mil. Those 5,000 a day seriously add up fast- and we're not even at that point yet.

I'm not embarressed to admit that last year, I thought I would need to get therapy to get me unaddicted to watching the Box Office- that's how bad it got. So I know how these things go.

 

[Advanced Dark]

5000 a day does not add up fast but I hope you're right. SM3 is still gonna beat the 1st 2 films worldwide with ease.

 

[Visionary]

Okay. Hope you're right.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Dude, I saw SR reach 200 mil when everyone said it was impossible and seemed impossible. Trust me, this movie is at the very least going to crawl to 350 mil. Those 5,000 a day seriously add up fast- and we're not even at that point yet.

I'm not embarressed to admit that last year, I thought I would need to get therapy to get me unaddicted to watching the Box Office- that's how bad it got. So I know how these things go.

I wouldn't use SR as a good example since it took it 117 Days to reach the $200m* mark .

Spidey 3 has a better chance to make it to 350 in a lot less time than it took SR to get to 200 .

 

[Advanced Dark]

Ok guys it's official! Spider-Man 3 just surpassed 800 million worldwide and pulled ahead of Spider-Man 2 and should pass Spider-Man 1 in the coming weeks.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117965875.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

<H1>'Pirates' dominates global box office

Disney film takes in $205.5 million worldwide

By IAN MOHR

'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End' is on track to break the four-day Memorial Day record.

"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" has taken in $126.5 million at the domestic box office, including its early limited runs Thursday.

Pic is on track to be the biggest four-day Memorial Day weekend opener ever, beating out the last pic in the "X-Men" series.
Globally, "At World's End" has taken in $205.5 million internationally, according to Disney estimates.
Paramount and DreamWorks said Sunday that "Shrek the Third" made $51.3 million over the three days. Cumulative box office after the weekend is estimated to be $215.7 million. At No. 3, Sony estimates that its "Spider-Man 3" has passed a total cume of $303.3 million domestically over the weekend and $499.1 million internationally.

</H1>
303.3
499.1
------
802.4

 

[Tempest19]

Yeah, but point is- the impossible is not impossible. If SR can reach 200 mil. SM3 should easily reach 350 mil at the very least.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Mojo's #'s Updated:

Domestic: $303,342,000 37.8%+ Foreign: $499,100,000 62.2%= Worldwide: $802,442,000

Ok so here's the upcoming release schedule. Spidey should have a decent week ahead of itself but after that it's going to tailspin. I say 330-335 now max. Look at this:

June, 8Ocean's ThirteenWarner Bros.
June, 8Surf's UpSony Pictures
June, 8Hostel: Part IILionsgate
June, 8La Vie en Rose (limited)PictureHouse
June, 8You're Gonna Miss Me (limited)Palm Pictures
June, 15Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer20th Century Fox
June, 15Nancy DrewWarner Bros.
June, 15DOA: Dead or AliveMiramax/Dimension
June, 15FidoLionsgate
June, 15Eagle vs Shark (limited)Miramax
June, 16Once (limited)Fox Searchlight$104,795
June, 22Evan AlmightyUniversal
June, 221408Miramax/Dimension
June, 22A Mighty HeartParamount Vantage
June, 22CaptivityLionsgate
June, 22You Kill MeIFC Films
June, 22My Blueberry Nights (expansion to wide release)Weinstein Co.
June, 22Broken English (limited)Magnolia Pictures
June, 22Black Sheep (limited)IFC Films
June, 22Klimt (limited)Outsider
June, 22September Dawn (limited)Black Diamond Pictures
June, 27Live Free or Die Hard20th Century Fox
June, 29RatatouilleBuena Vista
June, 29SickoWeinstein Co.
June, 29Death at a FuneralMGM
June, 29Evening (limited)Focus Features
June, 29Vitus (limited)Sony Pictures Classics
TBACut Sleeve BoysRegent Releasing
TBAThe Girl's Guide to Hunting and FishingWarner Independent Pictures
TBALooking for CheyenneRegent Releasing
TBAExiled (limited)Magnolia Pictures

July, 2007
July, 4The TransformersDreamworks SKG
July, 4License to WedWarner Bros.
July, 4Introducing the Dwights (limited)Warner Independent Pictures
July, 4Rescue Dawn (exclusive)MGM
July, 6Joshua (limited)Fox Searchlight
July, 7RockawayOff-Hollywood Distribution
July, 13Harry Potter and the Order of the PhoenixWarner Bros.
July, 13The StrangersFocus Features
July, 13Rescue Dawn (expansion to wide release)MGM
July, 13Shortcut to Happiness (limited)
July, 13Talk to Me (limited)Focus Features
July, 13Interview (limited)Sony Pictures Classics

 

[ultimatefan]

Wow, POTC3 didn´t match even Spider-Man 1´s opening weekend and Shrek 3 took a nose dive, didn´t see it coming. Unless there´s some big surprise ahead - Transformers, maybe? - Spidey 3 should still be the undefeated champion of the US summer...

 

[Tempest19]

Wow, POTC3 didn´t match even Spider-Man 1´s opening weekend and Shrek 3 took a nose dive, didn´t see it coming. Unless there´s some big surprise ahead - Transformers, maybe? - Spidey 3 should still be the undefeated champion of the US summer...

Preaching to the choir dude.

And Advanced Dark, I can't wait until next week or the week after POTC gets it's Prada.t:

 

[ultimatefan]

Preaching to the choir dude.

And Advanced Dark, I can't wait until next week or the week after POTC gets it's Prada.t:

I´d say POTC3 still has a slight shot if it´s less frontloaded than SM3, but given the last one´s performance, I wouldn´t bet on it.

 

[ultimatefan]

Ok guys it's official! Spider-Man 3 just surpassed 800 million worldwide and pulled ahead of Spider-Man 2 and should pass Spider-Man 1 in the coming weeks.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117965875.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

</H1>
303.3
499.1
------
802.4

It will surpass SM1´s worlwide total in unadjusted numbers and has even a shot at reaching it in adjusted numbers.

 

[Bat Attack]

I wonder if Avi Arads 24k gold lined swimming pool has been completed yet.

Avi: "Pull my finger"

*pulls finger, money shoots out his ass *