Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[GL's Light]

Pirates 3 certainly had a much weaker Saturday than I was expecting. It's kinda funny that we've reached the point where a $ 112.5 million 3-day weekend - the fourth biggest ever - can be considered disappointing, but such is life in an era when a blockbuster can carry a production budget of $ 300 million.

With this opening for Pirates 3 and Shrek 3's second weekend drop, SM 3's chances at being the top grossing film of the year have significantly improved. Pirates 3 may well fall short of $ 300 million domestic.

Still, international markets will undoubtedly ride to Disney's rescue, as they often do for FX-laden blockbusters. Pirates 3 has already made $ 332 million worldwide and should roll up a suitably hefty, and profitable, total when all is said and done. But I think the chances for Pirates 4 just took a shot in the nuts.

 

[Tempest19]

GL, you da man!

I always love getting a new SM3 > POTC3 convert.

 

[ultimatefan]

Pirates 3 certainly had a much weaker Saturday than I was expecting. It's kinda funny that we've reached the point where a $ 112.5 million 3-day weekend - the fourth biggest ever - can be considered disappointing, but such is life in an era when a blockbuster can carry a production budget of $ 300 million.

With this opening for Pirates 3 and Shrek 3's second weekend drop, SM 3's chances at being the top grossing film of the year have significantly improved. Pirates 3 may well fall short of $ 300 million domestic.

Still, international markets will undoubtedly ride to Disney's rescue, as they often do for FX-laden blockbusters. Pirates 3 has already made $ 332 million worldwide and should roll up a suitably hefty, and profitable, total when all is said and done. But I think the chances for Pirates 4 just took a shot in the nuts.

Yeah, that number is scary, I was already surprised by how much Spidey 3 cost, but I think studios won´t be able to carry that "bigger and bigger" philosophy for much longer.

 

[Advanced Dark]

900 million is virtually assured. It should be able to pull in another 30 million+ domestic and another 65-70 million international between tomorrow and the end of it's run. That's 80 million more than Spidey 1.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Yeah, that number is scary, I was already surprised by how much Spidey 3 cost, but I think studios won´t be able to carry that "bigger and bigger" philosophy for much longer.

I think that philosphy will take over. Fewer but bigger releases will bring in more money. Smaller studios will realize they just can't count on counter programming and release films anywhere's near Spidey 3, X3, Pirates, Harry, etc...The smaller films will have their following but overall will get lost on the DVD shelves. Yeah it sucks but that's a global way of looking at it. Personally I can't wait for Day Watch.

 

[ultimatefan]

900 million is virtually assured. It should be able to pull in another 30 million+ domestic and another 65-70 million international between tomorrow and the end of it's run. That's 80 million more than Spidey 1.

That´s almost four times a production budget of 258 mil, not counting toys, games, TV rights, DVDs... When you put it all together, the Spidey franchise should be in the 3 bil-plus level now...

 

[Tempest19]

Day Watch?

 

[ultimatefan]

I think that philosphy will take over. Fewer but bigger releases will bring in more money. Smaller studios will realize they just can't count on counter programming and release films anywhere's near Spidey 3, X3, Pirates, Harry, etc...The smaller films will have their following but overall will get lost on the DVD shelves. Yeah it sucks but that's a global way of looking at it. Personally I can't wait for Day Watch.

Maybe, but the good side of these megablockbusters is they make enough profit for the studios for them to have the luxury of investing in some smaller, interesting movies that won´t make a peep at the box office, but help to reveal new talent and stuff, and don´t forget that some directors who make these blockbusters use them to earn enough credit to get to do smaller personal movies, like Chris Nolan and even Gore Verbinski.

 

[The Caped Knight]

spidey's always been a big hit with the dvd sales , I can't wait to see how much it will make on dvds .

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Ok guys it's official! Spider-Man 3 just surpassed 800 million worldwide and pulled ahead of Spider-Man 2 and should pass Spider-Man 1 in the coming weeks.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117965875.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

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303.3
499.1
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802.4

Unbelieveable!

And isnt it funny? All the anti-Spidey trolls have mysteriously....disappeared.

 

[DarthAlani]

And disney was calling pirates the movie event of the decade. I guess they did not hear about Spidey. I think they got overconfident.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Just like in the comics, the odds were against Spidey. We had Shrek and Pirates on a holiday to compete with this month, but Spidey still wins convincingly (at least for now).

That is why Spidey is the greatest!

Now, we must crush the boy wizard and the robots!

 

[Tempest19]

 

[The Guardian]

I SAY SPIDEY 3 MAKES IT TO $350M BY THE END OF JUNE AND THE REST OF ITS RUN, ABOUT A MONTH OR TWO AFTER THAT, WILL BE ICING ON THE CAKE!!! YEAH, YEAH, CALL ME CRAZY, I DON'T CARE!!!up:

 

[Spider-Fan]

LOL...that is awesome!

 

[Tempest19]

Pirate fans have been calling us crazy for thinking POTC3 would not break SM3s record... whose crazy now? Lol.

 

[The Guardian]

HEY, I MAY BE CRAZY FOR THINKING SPIDEY 3 WILL BE AT $350M BY THE END OF JUNE, BUT LIKE SPIDEY, I MAY BE CRAZY, BUT I'M CRAZY LIKE A FOX!!!up:

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

I SAY SPIDEY 3 MAKES IT TO $350M BY THE END OF JUNE AND THE REST OF ITS RUN, ABOUT A MONTH OR TWO AFTER THAT, WILL BE ICING ON THE CAKE!!! YEAH, YEAH, CALL ME CRAZY, I DON'T CARE!!!up:

I'm with you on that. I defenitley think Spidey3 will make $350 million or very close to that by the end of june. It's highly likley so if anybody says it's not likley to happen then they are wrong. trust me guys, it's going to happen.

 

[DarthAlani]

Yeah the fanboys at piratesmojo can believe it. Maybe DMC was not as well recieved as everyone thought.

 

[Tempest19]

can or can't?

 

[ultimatefan]

Yeah the fanboys at piratesmojo can believe it. Maybe DMC was not as well recieved as everyone thought.

I call it the Matrix Reloaded effect or the Phantom Menace effect. The movie makes a ton of money on hype, but then when it really sinks in people realize that it wasn´t that good and the next sequel makes less.

 

[Theven]

I don't remember who I got into an argument with a couple months ago, but I said that POTC would beat out Spider-Man. Look like I was wrong. Not that I mind being wrong; I was hoping Spider-Man would set the record this year anyway!

 

[Tempest19]

At least you admitted dude. That took a lot of guts. But, you came and admitted it.

 

[The Guardian]

At least you admitted dude. That took a lot of guts. But, you came and admitted it.

YEAH, NOW KNEEL BEFORE ZOD!!! WHOOPS, WRONG MOVIE!!!

 

[Visionary]

The summer isn't over yet. Who knows what all these movies will make worldwide, when all is said and done.