Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[ultimatefan]

The summer isn't over yet. Who knows what all these movies will make worldwide, when all is said and done.

Yeah, but at least in the domestic market, I thought Shrek3 and POTC3 were going to give Spidey more of a run for its money. The Shrek result is particularly disappointing, given how much the second made in US.

 

[bingy13]

I think it's quite obvious the reasons that Pirates isn't doing as well as expected:

1. Shrek 3
2. Pirates' massive runtime
3. They aren't very good movies

 

[TLH]

Pirates suffered because it was released WAY too early. Remember the Matrix Revolutions? It was released in the same year as Reloaded, which made $281 million domestic. You would think the conclusion of the highly anticipated trilogy would get about that, maybe more. Instead, it got less than half at $139 million domestic because there was no hunger for the finale just yet.

AWE should have waited at least till next summer to come out as to conjure the thirst and anticipation in your audience/fanbase...that's how to really kill at the box office.

Sure, a $112 million opening weekend is fantastic, but considering that the first sequel grossed $135 million, it is indicative that that thirst wasn't there...yet. I'm sure it would have been by next summer.

 

[Spider-Man Luvr28]

Spider-Man 3 is now #16 on the top grossing films of all time.

 

[TLH]

Spider-Man 3 is now #16 on the top grossing films of all time.

Worldwide. Yup. And will likely be at 8 or 9 when all is said and done.

Domestically it's 23, and will likely move up to 13th.

 

[TrilogyMan2306]

I think that spidey 3 will have legs cause it seems the more people think about it , the more they like it. When I first saw it at midnight I almost felt as if it was anticlimactic for me and thought it was good but didnt do it for me like the first two. After seeing it again a few days later on my senior trip with all my buddies when it wasnt 2 in the morning I loved it. I went crazy. And after we saw it on the trip ... as the trip went on my buddies were just like "you know the more I think about that movie , the more I want to see it again." I doubt people will say that about the 3 hour long pirates

 

[Stupify_me]

As comic book fans, we should want to see all the movies do well. I do, even DC movies, because it is good for the industry, and good for the fanboys on both sides. And I hope your right about the year of the under dog. FF 2 is on deck. I allready know the critics won't like it.

I disagree as comic fans we should want the comics we like or the comic books that come out with good movies to do well. If a crappy movie does well there would be a good chance for a sequel and as a fan of both comics and the film industry I simply don't want bad sequels to be made from bad originals.

So I won't blindly cheer for every movie that comes out just because it happens to be attached to the comic industry. I say YAY that movies like Electra failed.

 

[Tempest19]

Yeah, I'm addicted to SM3. It's like they found some mind control thing and inserted it between the reels of all the films. Because I constantly feel the urge to go back.

 

[Stupify_me]

Dude, I saw SR reach 200 mil when everyone said it was impossible and seemed impossible. Trust me, this movie is at the very least going to crawl to 350 mil. Those 5,000 a day seriously add up fast- and we're not even at that point yet.

I'm not embarressed to admit that last year, I thought I would need to get therapy to get me unaddicted to watching the Box Office- that's how bad it got. So I know how these things go.

No it won't. The highest this movie will make is 345 and that is very very very unlikely

 

[Tempest19]

I'm sticking to around 350 with the two other Spidey fans. I think it will get there- don't know about end of June. Seems a bit soon. But, it will get there- even if it needs to crawl.

 

[TLH]

Based on the percentages of the first two Spider-Man films and Spidey 3, I think these are fair numbers:

Tomorrow (Holiday Monday): $3.5 million

Weekdays (May 29-31): $3.4 million

Weekend (June 1-3): $7.8 million -46%

Weekdays (June 4-7): $3.8 million

Weekend (June 8-10): $5.3 million -33%

Weekdays (June 11-14): $2.5 million

Weekend (June 15-17): $3.3 million -38%

Weekdays (June 18-21): $1.5 million

Weekend (June 22-24): $2.2 million -33%

Weekdays (June 25-28): $1 million

Weekend (June 29-July 1st): $1.4 million -37%

---------------------------------------------
End of June domestic gross: 339.2 million

Spider-Man 2's weekend % drops were anywhere from 25-30%...as you will see above the drops for Spider-Man 3 I've predicted are a bit larger. So if anything, these numbers are more conservative then they are daring.

The end of June seems optimistic for $350 million. End of July? Definitely.

 

[PoSeiDon]

I just read that PIrates is on track to have the biggest global opening of all time.

what was spideys global when it came out 3 weeks ago??

 

[TLH]

I just read that PIrates is on track to have the biggest global opening of all time.

what was spideys global when it came out 3 weeks ago??

If you are referring to opening weekends then you read wrong:

1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $381.7 $151.1 39.6% $230.5 60.4% 2007

2 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $332.0 $126.5 38.1% $205.5 61.9% 2007

 

[PoSeiDon]

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=20658
Walt Disney Pictures' Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End continued on a wave of unprecedented success at the global box office over the weekend, and is poised to have the biggest worldwide opening of all time, it was announced today by Mark Zoradi, president of Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Marketing and Distribution. Worldwide the movie has earned $332 million total in five days.
On the domestic front, "At World's End" will establish a new 4-day Memorial Day weekend record. The film's gross through Sunday is estimated to be $126.5 million, with the Monday holiday still to come. It is the Studio's 53rd film to reach the $100 million plateau, which is unprecedented in the industry.
At the international box office "At World's End" is on track to gross a record-setting $205.5 million thru Sunday, and has already become the Studio's 54th release to join the $100 million club. The film has a few major markets yet to open including China and India.
Commenting on the announcement, Zoradi said, "Audiences all over the world are clearly having a blast with this latest 'Pirates' adventure and we're thrilled to report that the film is on track to have the biggest worldwide opening in movie history. From every corner of the world, the film is playing like gangbusters, and we think that this enthusiasm and good will is going to continue for a long time to come."

 

[TLH]

Worldwide the movie has earned $332 million total in five days.

Spider-Man 3's world opening was $381 million. In THREE days, not FIVE. I've never heard of a five day opening weekend.

On the domestic front, "At World's End" will establish a new 4-day Memorial Day weekend record. The film's gross through Sunday is estimated to be $126.5 million, with the Monday holiday still to come.

Let us not forget that $14 million of that is Thursday's gross...the film still has to make $12 million on Monday (which is will, but boy is this article hasty) to pass X-Men 3: The Last Stand's $122 million opening.

At the international box office "At World's End" is on track to gross a record-setting $205.5 million thru Sunday

Record-setting? Hardly. Impressive? Yes.

Obviously Disney has never heard of Spider-Man 3. Explain to me how a $332.5 million is more than $381 million. What a poorly sourced article.

 

[Kargo Warrior]

In Disneyland maybe but not in reality....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/worldwideopenings.htm

1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $381.7 $151.1 39.6% $230.5 60.4% 2007
2 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $332.0 $126.5 38.1% $205.5 61.9% 2007
3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $303.9 $158.4 52.1% $145.5 47.9% 2005
4 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $250.0 $124.1 49.6% $125.9 50.4% 2003
5 The Da Vinci Code Sony $232.1 $77.1 33.2% $155.0 66.8% 2006
6 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $207.2 $93.7 45.2% $113.5 54.8% 2004
7 War of the Worlds Par. $203.1 $100.6 49.5% $102.5 50.5% 2005
8 The Matrix Revolutions WB $201.4 $83.8 41.6% $117.6 58.4% 2003
9 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $189.9 $102.0 53.7% $87.9 46.3% 2002
10 Spider-Man 2 Sony $189.4 $152.4 80.5% $37.0 19.5% 2004

 

[TLH]

In Disneyland maybe but not in reality....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/worldwideopenings.htm

1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $381.7 $151.1 39.6% $230.5 60.4% 2007
2 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $332.0 $126.5 38.1% $205.5 61.9% 2007
3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $303.9 $158.4 52.1% $145.5 47.9% 2005
4 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $250.0 $124.1 49.6% $125.9 50.4% 2003
5 The Da Vinci Code Sony $232.1 $77.1 33.2% $155.0 66.8% 2006
6 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $207.2 $93.7 45.2% $113.5 54.8% 2004
7 War of the Worlds Par. $203.1 $100.6 49.5% $102.5 50.5% 2005
8 The Matrix Revolutions WB $201.4 $83.8 41.6% $117.6 58.4% 2003
9 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $189.9 $102.0 53.7% $87.9 46.3% 2002
10 Spider-Man 2 Sony $189.4 $152.4 80.5% $37.0 19.5% 2004

Bingo.

 

[Advanced Dark]

It's record setting for Disney and that particular weekend. That's all.

 

[Tempest19]

It's record setting for Disney and that particular weekend. That's all.

Should have stated it that way then. That's the difference between good vs. confusing journalism.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Day Watch?

Yep. First go rent Nigh****ch (Not the ewan Mcgregor film) today and then Daywatch comes out in theatres next week. I think June 1st. Don't miss it.

 

[StylishHokie21]

Pirates only made $112 million? I figured it wouldn't top Spider-Man.

 

[Advanced Dark]

the censor stuff here is weak. I can't even write n i g h t w a t c h because the word twa* is in it. LOL

 

[Tempest19]

the censor stuff here is weak. I can't even write n i g h t w a t c h because the word twa* is in it. LOL

Yeah really don't understand the censor system here- nigh****ch vs. the word bastard. Huh???

 

[Mr. Socko]

Looks like Spidey 3 will be the highest grossing film of the year.


I don't believe there are any other films coming out that could beat it's record this year.

 

[pjspider1C]

Looks like Spidey 3 will be the highest grossing film of the year.


I don't believe there are any other films coming out that could beat it's record this year.

What about Transformers? That's got a huge cult following... I'm not saying that it will, but I'd definately say it's a contender...