Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[nintendo nerd]

I don't want to go too much off topic but I would have to disagree with you. I think FF2 is going to surprise at the box office and out gross the previous film. The first film was a fun movie and with the SM3 and POTC 3 being somewhat dark in tone, I think families and the general audience will eat up FF2...I think 200 million is in store for FF2.

Anyways, back to SM3, I'm hoping it levels off a bit now that the big three are out. You could see that the drops are getting smaller every week so hopefully that trend will continue and develop some late run legs so it can get to 340 million domestically.

Yeah, I'm hoping SM3 will show some legs.

Downhere, I see your avatar is of Jack Sparrow. Who do you thin will be the champion this year, SM3 or POTC?

 

[Downhere]

Yeah, I'm hoping SM3 will show some legs.

Downhere, I see your avatar is of Jack Sparrow. Who do you thin will be the champion this year, SM3 or POTC?

Well, I love both franchises but after seeing both SM3 and POTC 3 I hope SM3 takes the cake. It was the better film...now mind you, that doesn't mean I thought POTC 3 was bad, it was quite good, but I really enjoyed SM3 a bit more.

 

[nintendo nerd]

Well, I love both franchises but after seeing both SM3 and POTC 3 I hope SM3 takes the cake. It was the better film...now mind you, that doesn't mean I thought POTC 3 was bad, it was quite good, but I really enjoyed SM3 a bit more.[/quo

I'M A SM fan myself, and I'm happy with the money is making.

My favorite superhero is Superman, it's too bad SR didn't made that kind of money, because I'm pretty sure that was WB expected.

 

[Stupify_me]

okay

I predict 130 - 140 domestic

Way to low on your predictions your letting your BLIND hatred for the movie mess with your predictions. The hype machine for FF2 has been so huge. it will at the very least hit 200

 

[nintendo nerd]

Way to low on your predictions your letting your BLIND hatred for the movie mess with your predictions. The hype machine for FF2 has been so huge. it will at the very least hit 200

LOL!!!
I don't hate FF, I just didn't like the movie. And as I posted before it's just my opinion. IMO it could've been so much better. I think the cast is all wrong. And I think this sequel is marvel's last effort to squeeze all the cash left on this franchise.

 

[Tempest19]

Way to low on your predictions your letting your BLIND hatred for the movie mess with your predictions. The hype machine for FF2 has been so huge. it will at the very least hit 200

Seems more like a blind hatred for EVERY summer movie if I read that correctly- he more or less stated that most "big" movies this summer will be flops to disappointments.



NINTENDO NERD:
I don't think many people will want to see more movies this summer. Transformers, FF2, The simpsons movie, I think none of them will reach the 200 million mark. Only Harry Potter looks to be a contender.



Srry dude, but how crazy are you? Just wondering.

FF according to you isn't going to do good. Transformers according to you isn't going to do good- so after those three (POTC3, S3, and SM3), people are just going to stop going to movies all together and only go see Harry Potter? Wow... that's gotta be the most ridiculous thing I've heard all day if I read your post correctly. So, are you crazy or just have HP bias written all over you?

 

[nintendo nerd]

Seems more like a blind hatred for EVERY summer movie if I read that correctly- he more or less stated that most "big" movies this summer will be flops to disappointments.



NINTENDO NERD:
I don't think many people will want to see more movies this summer. Transformers, FF2, The simpsons movie, I think none of them will reach the 200 million mark. Only Harry Potter looks to be a contender.



Srry dude, but how crazy are you? Just wondering.

FF according to you isn't going to do good. Transformers according to you isn't going to do good- so after those three, people are just going to stop going to movies all together and only go see Harry Potter? Wow... that's gotta be the most ridiculous thing I've heard all day if I read your post correctly.

Maybe because the three biggest hits of the summer show up at the beginning of the summer with less than three weeks of difference.

And I don't know why you have to call me crazy. It's just my opinion. Maybe you think FF2 and Transformers will be a hit. Good for you. I love movies, as much as you do, but I have different tastes. My favorite superhero movie is SR, and maybe you don't like it. But I won't call you crazy like you did with me. People have different tastes.

 

[Tempest19]

Actually dude, I like SR- ALOT.

I don't know if you were going over board or just stating that the three big movies are guaranteed the top three. With the other movies this summer coming in the rank after those three.

But, the facts are simple:

1. People will continue to go see movies. Like they ALWAYS do.

2. These movies have shots at forth and above places in summer box office. Maybe some have potential to beat Shrek depending on how that runs its course. They are NOT going to be flops- or every summer, every movie would be flops because they- according to what it sounds like you are saying- only go to the top three hyped films.

But, people are NOT just going to stop, shrug and stop seeing movies... so what? Who the fck cares if they all come out first? Every year there is a top THREE. Placement does NOT matter. People do not just go see POTC3, stop and say "that's it- no more movies this summer." Lol.

I think you went way over board with your statements- that doesn't make sense. People will stop going to the movies "less"? That would be an almost positive- they're not aiming to be the top three. People will just stop going to the movies? Now that's ridiculous.

Dude, ALOT of industry professionals in the box office are seeing this summer as being the summer to rule them all. The summer to bring in the most money so far. Not the summer that has three movies and everything else is a flop or be "major" disappointments, lol.

As said, I don't know if you were exagerating or saying what you actually- some how- believe.

 

[nintendo nerd]

Actually dude, I like SR- ALOT.

I don't know if you were going over board or just stating that the three big movies are guaranteed the top three. With the other movies this summer coming in the rank after those three.

But, the facts are simple:

1. People will continue to go see movies. Like they ALWAYS do.

2. These movies have shots at forth and above places in summer box office. Maybe some have potential to beat Shrek depending on how that runs its course. They are NOT going to be flops- or every summer, every movie would be flops because they- according to what it sounds like you are saying- only go to the top three hyped films.

But, people are NOT just going to stop, shrug and stop seeing movies... so what? Who the fck cares if they all come out first? Every year there is a top THREE. Placement does NOT matter. People do not just go see POTC3, stop and say "that's it- no more movies this summer." Lol.

I think you went way over board with your statements- that doesn't make sense. People will stop going to the movies "less"? That would be an almost positive- they're not aiming to be the top three. People will just stop going to the movies? Now that's ridiculous.

I'm not saying people won't watch those movies at all. I just think they will be lucky to reach POTC,SM3, and Shrek 3 insane numbers. Maybe you're right and maybe I'm wrong. who knows? It's just that I don't feel they will be the success some are expecting. IMO the box office will end like this:

1. SM3
2. POTC 3
3. Shrek 3
4. Harry Potter
5. Transformers
6. Simpsons
7. FF 2

Good to know someone else likes SR.

 

[mathhater]

I'M A SM fan myself, and I'm happy with the money is making.

My favorite superhero is Superman, it's too bad SR didn't made that kind of money, because I'm pretty sure that was WB expected.

I echo your sentiments about Superman. But I believe the reason it didn't do as well as the WB hoped was just the way the character was handled...and not with the character himself. I blame Singer.

But anyhoo, I'm just really glad that it's a comic book movie that's grabbing these records. It's gratifying for me as a comic fan and is hopefully a good sign for future movies...as long as the WB and Marvel focus first and foremost on quality above all else...(and in doing so preventing the flat-out disasters of "Elektra" and "Catwoman," and the missteps in movies like "Hulk" and "SR.")

 

[Tempest19]

I'm not saying people won't watch those movies at all. I just think they will be lucky to reach POTC,SM3, and Shrek 3 insane numbers. Maybe you're right and maybe I'm wrong. who knows? It's just that I don't feel they will be the success some are expecting.

Now that I can agree with and more or less stated. These top threes can not be topped. But, perhaps Shrek can- how is that doing-? It's not that good of a film, so I think any animated film this summer may be able to top it (whether that be Surf's Up or Rat...).

And personally, putting my money in TF over HP- but, other than that my ranking is very similar to yours.

Transformers- around a 'War of the Worlds' type box office. It has Spielburg's name attached, it has big robots and is getting a phenomenal response from alot of the guys I know. I played the trailer before class- every single guy lined up behind me to watch it and everyone loved it. That's the first time I saw that happen.

HP is also going to do good. But, I think it's going to be a close race between this and TF.

Fantastic Four 2 has more of a 170-200. Although some fans and critics didn't like it, I am positive that those who did outweight those who didn't. In college- it seemed like every day at least one person or more were watching Fantastic Four. And people would look in to watch parts of it as well. At the very least it will get the same amount FF1 got.

Simpsons is a wild card, but I'd say 130-150 or a little more maybe depending on how good the film is.

The only flop I see is that alien invasion flick with Craig and Kidman... nobody knows it exists and I think they might be hiding it due to a horrible job a la "Days of Thunder" (that unfinished CGI film last summer- I think that's the title of it).

Oceans 13 is going to be more than 125 million probably if they keep to their promise of making it more like Ocean's 11, but lower if it's the same or worse than Ocean's 12.

Knocked up will be around 100-110 mil, along with 40 year old virgin.

 

[nintendo nerd]

Now that I can agree with and more or less stated. These top threes can not be topped. But, perhaps Shrek can- how is that doing-? It's not that good of a film, so I think any animated film this summer may be able to top it (whether that be Surf's Up or Rat...).

And personally, putting my money in TF over HP- but, other than that my ranking is very similar to yours.

I don't know. I think Harry Potter is a very well established franchise. Kids love Harry Potter. Maybe it could end at the top 3. In the case of Shrek, remember that poor quality doesn't mean poor box office. I live in Mexico and kids were more excited with Shrek than with spidey. At the cinema I went to watch SM3 they showed Shrek's trailer and kids were cheering and laughing. I though it looked really stupid. I thought SR was way better than POTC 2, X MEN 3, CARS, and you know what happened there

 

[The Chris]

Harry Potter looks great, but the last time it came out in the summer it didn't do as well (even though Prisoner of Azkaban is the best one so far). I think the kids are digging Spider-Man 3 right now. I remember Shrek 2 being more liked by the kids in the audience than the kids who saw Shrek The Third. Spidey will be number one for me, with Pirates number two. I'm sticking to that.

 

[Tempest19]

Just looked at the previous HP films, and yeah- I think it has a shot of being up there. Didn't know the films got that high in B.O. before.

Betting around 250 more, maybe a little bit more than that due to the 3D.

And how big Transformers is before it comes out, which is really a toss up between the two.

Due to Transformer having a near perfect marketing campaign coming, and the factor of being the really "NEW" movie this summer. Everything else is really a sequel, it seems like.

 

[Carp Man]

Tuesdays #'s are in. Updates below.

Pirates $ 7.8 million
Shrek $ 3.6 million
Spider-Man $ 1 million

 

[Advanced Dark]

Spider-Man 3 will officially pass up the totals of the first film after this weekend. It only needs 11 million between now and Sunday to do that. Piece of cake.

 

[Docker2.0]

Maybe you're right. But I don't know, I have a bad feeling about Transformers I think is gonna be really dumb with bunch of plot holes.

Have you seen the Simpsons trailer? It didn't get me excited at all. And trust me, I'm a simpsons fan. It just looks like the last seasons where Homer gets in trouble, and gets hit by a car, falls down of a ledge, and Marge gets angry with him. I wish it was like the old seasons.

Wow! I was just about to flame your ass about the post about F42 making only $150 million domestically(that is WAY to low!) but you made up for it with this post! t: Transformers does look like it is full of plots. I don't even think I have heard them talk yet! But regardless, Transformers will make at least $100 million, although I get the feeling that it's this year's Stealth. Simpsons.........I don't know man. That movie doesn't seem to have any hype to it at all. If this movie came out like 5 or 6 years ago, I think it wouldve been huge but due to Family Guy, the Simpsons have almost died in popularity.

F42 is really being hyped up! I know people that despised the first movie and can't wait to see this one. Heck.........believe it or not, I'm more hyped for F42 than I was...........for Spidey!

 

[Kargo Warrior]

The Tuesday number is awesome...it's just 37 % down from last Tuesday...

 

[Downhere]

The Tuesday number is awesome...it's just 37 % down from last Tuesday...

Yeah, SM3 is finally growing some legs. It would be nice for it to drop less than 50% this weekend.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Spider-Man 3 will officially pass up the totals of the first film after this weekend. It only needs 11 million between now and Sunday to do that. Piece of cake.

It's in the bag .

 

[davida86]

Pirates made almost about 160 million during the whole weekend..I definitely expect it to drop no more than 52% next weekend and steadily have fewer drop off percentages until later when its run starts wanning around the beginning of august!..Spiderman 3's basically on its way down and soon enough..its gonna make its final domestic gross by the end of july or even before..I really dunno about Shrek 3 as of this moment because it really had a steep fall off last weekend(so weird for shrek!!!)...

Definitely the KING of the summer box office will be Pirates:At World's end..will probably end up around 370-380million..or even higher if its drop next weekend really isn't too steep(50-55%)..

Spiderman 3's fate is already sealed cause it came out ages ago..Its total domestic run will be about 340-350..Nothin more than 350..Just impossible..it already started losing momentum way too early so it can't get higher than that..Fact!

Fantastic Four: Rise of Silver Surfer is gonna open somewhere around 80million and it may be the surprise of the summer...I predict 200M-230M..

 

[Downhere]

Umm, davida86, I think you may want to go over to Box Office Mojo and see what they are saying about POTC 3.

 

[Kargo Warrior]

Davida you dont anything about how box office works and i really dont feel like explaining to you...

And Btw Pirates made 160 in almost 6 days including Memorial day Monday...it will crawl to 300 and even that is in question if the weekend drop is more that 57-58%

370-380...that is not even funny

 

[Tempest19]

There is no way that Transformers is going to bomb. Lol.

I won't go into how stupid that made you sound in my books.

Top three? Nope. Top five? You better believe it.

I often play trailers and movie clips before class.... and the ONLY TRAILER - the ONLY TRAILER- that ever got a response before class is Transformers. I had around 30 guys looking at my laptop screen before my back before the midpoint of the trailer. And the response for each? ****ING AWESOME!

Yep, that sure looks like a bad omen to me- LMAOL.

 

[nintendo nerd]

Wow! I was just about to flame your ass about the post about F42 making only $150 million domestically(that is WAY to low!) but you made up for it with this post! t: Transformers does look like it is full of plots. I don't even think I have heard them talk yet! But regardless, Transformers will make at least $100 million, although I get the feeling that it's this year's Stealth. Simpsons.........I don't know man. That movie doesn't seem to have any hype to it at all. If this movie came out like 5 or 6 years ago, I think it wouldve been huge but due to Family Guy, the Simpsons have almost died in popularity.

F42 is really being hyped up! I know people that despised the first movie and can't wait to see this one. Heck.........believe it or not, I'm more hyped for F42 than I was...........for Spidey!

Totally agree with you. I really doubt Transformers will succeed at the box office as many people expect it to. I'm not excited about the simpsons at all, and as I've mentioned before I'm a huge fan of the series.

I'm glad you're hyped about FF4 2, sorry I can't feel the same way. IMO the only marvel characters that have been done justice on the big screen are X - Men and SM. I'm hoping the new Hulk movie will be a hit, looks like they're doing things right this time. It's really hard for me to see FF4 2 making the 200 million mark domestic. We'll see right?