Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Kargo Warrior]

Ahh, so it is, great. How long will it be before it is toppled?

Well with the overseas numbers which we wont know till Sunday,officailly it will be Sunday/Monday...it will be around 830-840 by then t:

 

[DarthAlani]

Not surprised at all,Depp is a great actor has been for a long time. He is what makes the pirates movies what they are.

 

[Kargo Warrior]

I can understand how the girls love Depp,he has it all,but Bloom....he is woman traped in a man's body and even that is insult to the women..

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

SM3 is 12M away from SM1's worldwide cume.

And thats great because there are still a few months left of Spidey3 in theaters so I think it's defenitley going to reach that mark or even go above it.

 

[Carp Man]

Theater counts are in.

Pirates 4,362 no change.

Shrek 4,109 Down 63

Spider-Man 3,402 Down 321.

 

[Carp Man]

May 31, 2007

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Pirates' Sinking?; 'Knocked Up' should score a strong 2nd-place finish; 'Mr. Brooks' in single digits

by Steve Mason

This week during an appearance on the Reelz Channel, I was asked if I thought if Knocked Up (Universal) could knock off Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista). The answer is a resounding no, but it might be closer than anyone expects.

Disney has got the “spin machine” operating at warp speed in an effort to avoid the perception that P3: AWE is a disappointment. The fact is that Captain Jack is sinking.

Here are the Monday thru Wednesday grosses for Pirates this week.

Tuesday - $7.78M – down 69%
Wednesday - $6.4M – down 18%
Thursday - $6.36M – down 1%

Compare that to the first 3 normal weekdays for Spider-Man 3 (Sony) after its meteoric 3-day opening weekend of $151M.

Monday - $10.2M
Tuesday - $8M
Wednesday - $6.7M

Spidey’s 2nd weekend was $58.16M. It’s very possible that At World’s End will come in under $50M.

All along, I’ve felt that P3 would be the third-best May performer and that it wouldn’t be one of the top 3 grossing movies of the summer. It’s getting tougher with each passing day to imagine Gore Verbinski’s swashbuckler reaching $300M domestic.

Disney seems to be playing fast and loose with their numbers. Last Friday night, I reported that Pirates did $40M on opening day. By Saturday, Disney had grabbed $3M from the reported $17M Thursday night take and added to Friday to pad that number up to $43M. Now Sony is crying foul in the way Disney is reporting its international grosses. It seems like Disney execs are bailing water out of a sinking ship.

Maybe it’s better for the film to build. Instead of scoring a huge opening weekend then dropping 60%, maybe a solid first weekend will lead to a more Wedding Crashers-like run. When that 2005 Owen Wilson-Vince Vaughn comedy opened, it performed like this.

July 15-17 - $33.9M
July 22-24 - $25.6M
July 29-31 - $20M
August 5-7 - $16M
August 12-14 - $11.8M
August 19-21 - $8M
August 26-28 - $6M
September 2-4 - $4.7M
September 2-5 - $5.8M
September 9-11 - $3.25M
September 16-18 - $2.5M
September 23-25 - $1.25M

I would argue that the film topped $200M because it opened a little softer. If Wedding Crashers had opened with $60M, it wouldn’t have built into the phenomenon that it became.

When all is said and done, I say that Pirates will score in the $48M-$51M range this weekend and Knocked Up will be in the $34M-$37M range.
It would be a huge accomplishment for Shrek the Third to grab $30M+ this weekend, but I suspect that it will dip below $30M and a 3rd-place finish. It’ll be close for 4th between Spider-Man 3 and new offering Mr. Brooks from MGM.

Here are my predictions for this weekend, June 1-3:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $51M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $35.7M
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $27.5M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $7.9M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $6.8M
6. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.5M
7. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $1.35M
8. Bug (Lionsgate) - $1.3M
9. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $1.1M
10. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1M

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/05/final_weekend_t_3.html

 

[Downhere]

I think Mason's Thursday drop for POTC 3 is too low, it will probably end up in the 5-10% range.

The good news is that SM3 will grab another 7 mil and bring it's cume to 318 million. By the 10th it should be at 326-328 million...I think 340 million looks like a good place for it to end up, which is a great number.

 

[sandgoblin]

I ONLY watch potc for Keira Knightley. Yes, Orlando Bloom looks like a girl.

 

[SuperSpideyGirl]

Although I thought Knocked Up would be a sleeper hit I wasn't expecting predictions of it's opening weekend to be that high.

SM3's worldwide total continues to impress me!

 

[TLH]

I think Mason's Thursday drop for POTC 3 is too low, it will probably end up in the 5-10% range.

The good news is that SM3 will grab another 7 mil and bring it's cume to 318 million. By the 10th it should be at 326-328 million...I think 340 million looks like a good place for it to end up, which is a great number.

I'm thinking Spidey 3 will push closer to $320 million domestic after this weekend. $8-9 million seems more likely in my eyes.

$2.4 mill on Friday, $3.5 on Saturday, $2.6 million on Sunday.

$8.5 million this weekend.

 

[SuperSpideyGirl]

The only time I've found Orlando Bloom remotely attractive was in the end of POTC3 movie when he became of the Dutchmen. He is too pretty and a horrible actor.

 

[TLH]

The only time I've found Orlando Bloom remotely attractive was in the end of POTC3 movie when he became of the Dutchmen. He is too pretty and a horrible actor.

What does this have to do with the box office thread?

 

[sandgoblin]

Orlando had the scarf thing going on the end. Pretty cool.

 

[Docker2.0]

The only time I've found Orlando Bloom remotely attractive was in the end of POTC3 movie when he became of the Dutchmen. He is too pretty and a horrible actor.

How is he "to pretty" but not attractive?

 

[Kmack]

You know whats funny, I absolutely love Orlando Bloom. I think he's one of the hottest guy on Earth but when I watch Pirates he just isn't as attractive to me as he is in films like Elizabethtown and LOTR. Can it be that Johnny Depp is so sexy that he renders Bloom...not so hot Whoa, that's a scary thought

 

[sandgoblin]

POTC 3 could be a better movie.

 

[DarthAlani]

Kiera's got nice ass.

 

[chaseter]

POTC 3 could be a better movie.

Same can be said for SM3

 

[Carp Man]

Kiera's got nice ass.

 

[Carp Man]

edit

 

[Carp Man]

Pick 1. t:

 

[Advanced Dark]

Carp did you break into my private photo stash again. Why'd you crop me out of that one???

 

[SLYspyder]

Kiera's got nice ass.

Kierra has no ass, sorry, Jessica and Kirsten do though.

 

[shinlyle]

SM3 is 12M away from SM1's worldwide cume.

Wow...and it still has some steam left....Good deal!

 

[sandgoblin]

I :heart: Keira Knightley and Jessica Alba!!!