Shrek 3 is going to win and I'm going to be one of the few people who actually lays out facts as to why I think that it's going to win and not my opinion on any given movie; because your opinion of a movie doesn't matter one bit when it comes to predicting the boxoffice.
Lets look at DVD sales first: Shrek 2 has sole over 18 million-an amazing number, not a whole lot of films sale over 10million copies let along 15mil.
Shrek is an animated movie that appeals to adults just as much as kids and sadly (I liked the first two films BTW) animated films don't have to be excelent films to make a crap load of money, so even if Shrek 3 is just okay kids will want to see it over and over again if it makes them laugh enough. And as I stated before Adults love the first two movies also so they will have no trouble seeing it over and over again.
PREDICTION: 390mil total. Winner!
Pirates AWE is a hard one to predict because it's being released a year after the second one and people could be all pirated out but the DVD has sold over 15 million copies and counting, last time I checked, that is a huge number for a liveaction DVD, and the movie had good sequel legs on a record opening. Do I think most people liked it as much as the first one? Nah, but I don't think they disliked it. I think Jack Sparrow and crew will bring in the big bucks again and possibly win the summer but I'm not predicting that because Shrek has more going for it in my opinion.
PREDICTION: 375mil. NUMBAH TWO with a bullet!
And now for my most anticpated movie of the year!
I don't think Spidey 3 has a chance in hell of winning the year because Spidey 2 sold the least DVD (a little under 10mil) and tickets of the bunch and the 2nd movie made less than the first. I believe that the two weeks alone could help it do more than I'm saying and it does look oh so awsome but I just can't bring myself to predict it at number one. I want it to but I can't.
PREDICTION: 340mil. Sorry Spidey!