Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[JaD]

So how much will Wolverine rack up in the states? In the long run? Opening weekend estimates?

I think this'll have a 70-ish million opening weekend, and just over 200 million for domestic returns, but I'm thinking Star Trek opening the week after will be cutting into a bit of that money though

I guess we'll have to wait and see! Not too long you know....

 

[Microchip]

Lets go beserk and say 250+ domestic. There's lots of money to go around in the summer, and I think that Wolverine will do well with kids despite the fact it's darker than other X-Men movies. I don't think Star Trek can say the same.

 

[BMM]

Damn it, JaD! I was just about to post a new thread for this, but you beat me to it.

Personally, I think this movie has the potential to outperform all three of its predecessors. No X-Men film has broken the $250 million domestic mark, let alone the $300 million domestic mark, and I think the combination of its May 1 release date and the fact that the movie looks to cater and speak to an action oriented audience could push it beyond such benchmarks.

I don’t think, however, the movie’s opening weekend will outperform that of X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 or $122 million), but I do think this movie could have, and should have, better legs. Still, it will be tough, as May is a month packed with potential blockbusters, with Star Trek opening a week later (May 8), followed by Angels and Demons (May 15), Terminator Salvation (May 21), Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (May 22) and Pixar’s Up (May 29).

 

[icelemt38]

I really do wonder how well Star Trek will do, I for one will never see it but trekkies think its going to be huge. 2nd weekend is so important and Star Trek comes across as a movie with a very similar audience group so it might affect Wolverine quite a bit, I certainly hope not. I personally don't see Star Trek opening to more than 50M.

And I agree completely BMM, I think Wolverine has potential to eventually out gross X3 but won't open bigger than X3. I'm guessing around 80-90M opening but yea this year's competition seems very very tough compared to others.

 

[JaD]

Damn it, JaD! I was just about to post a new thread for this, but you beat me to it.

Ahh, my bad. I seem to be getting on everyone's nerves on here lately

Personally, I think this movie has the potential to outperform all three of its predecessors. No X-Men film has broken the $250 million domestic mark, let alone the $300 million domestic mark, and I think the combination of its May 1 release date and the fact that the movie looks to cater and speak to an action oriented audience could push it beyond such benchmarks.

I don’t think, however, the movie’s opening weekend will outperform that of X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 or $122 million), but I do think this movie could have, and should have, better legs. Still, it will be tough, as May is a month packed with potential blockbusters, with Star Trek opening a week later (May 8), followed by Angels and Demons (May 15), Terminator Salvation (May 21), Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (May 22) and Pixar’s Up (May 29).

I think it'll have better legs than X3 too , but I don't see it's percentage of box office intake dropping so significantly like X3 after the first week. Just a little bit, then being pretty steady for some time. But I see it at least dropping to #2 for the week after. I think Star Trek will be pretty huge.

 

[BMM]

I really do wonder how well Star Trek will do, I for one will never see it but trekkies think its going to be huge. 2nd weekend is so important and Star Trek comes across as a movie with a very similar audience group so it might affect Wolverine quite a bit, I certainly hope not. I personally don't see Star Trek opening to more than 50M.

And I agree completely BMM, I think Wolverine has potential to eventually out gross X3 but won't open bigger than X3. I'm guessing around 80-90M opening but yea this year's competition seems very very tough compared to others.

I agree. I think an $80-90 million opening weekend sounds promising. I didn’t realize May is as packed as it is. I thought Star Trek opened two weeks after X-Men Origins and I thought Terminator Salvation opened later in the summer.

Ahh, my bad. I seem to be getting on everyone's nerves on here lately.

Haha. It’s cool.

I think it'll have better legs than X3 too , but I don't see it's percentage of box office intake dropping so significantly like X3 after the first week. Just a little bit, then being pretty steady for some time. But I see it at least dropping to #2 for the week after. I think Star Trek will be pretty huge.

I agree. I don’t think it will have as steep a drop off as The Last Stand, but I think Star Trek may very well knock it to the number two spot. I think Star Trek and Terminator Salvation will prove the biggest competition, as all three movies are sequels or prequels to well established properties and all three are competing for similar demographics. I think Terminator is shaping up to be a lot bigger than I initially thought it was.

 

[def28]

Opening Weekend should be huge, 100 mil sounds right just for that. But I think the month of May is too crowded, and it wont last long past that. The General Audience likes X-Men much more then Star Trek so even if its bumped to #2 it should still be doing decent. But by the time all those flicks in May are out, it wont gain much more cash. Regardless it should make $250 mil at least.

 

[Deaths Head II]

I'm thinking 150-170 million, but I'm probably being pessimistic.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I'm gonna say it brings in a rounded $100 Million on opening weekend and dies out after 10 weeks with $270 Million.

My lowest estimate for the overall gross is $250 and my highest is $300.

The May 1 spot is the source of my $300 million estimate, but yes its not a solid possibility on the count of so much competition opening after it.

I dont think the Star Trek community is a danger to Wolverine, but I do think that Terminator and Transformers will give him a heavy opposition.

 

[BMM]

We’ve been talking about competition from outside sources, but does anyone think the lack of X-Men and subsequent familiarity may hurt this film’s appeal and subsequent box office?

This isn’t a great example, but I can’t help but notice that, even a month away, these boards seem rather thin, and have from the get-go, compared to other superhero boards, especially in comparison to those for X-Men 3. I could be wrong, and the boards may very well pick up, but it seems like there isn’t an overwhelming interest in this film, as least like there was for the last installment of the X-Men franchise. I know there are a lot of X-Men fans that surf these boards, but a lot of them don’t seem to share quite the same interest in this film as they have with the ensemble films. If this is the case, does anyone think this mentality potentially extends beyond SHH? I’m wondering if Fox is concerned as well because lately they seem to be increasingly promoting every other character besides the one the movie is actually about. Does anyone think this could have an effect on the box office?

 

[FaT_tONle]

I gonna predict 70 million... 160 domestic.

 

[topdog1]

Wolvie second weekend will top Star Trek's opening. A Trek rehash with a fake Kirk is going to flop.

I see Wolverine doing very similar to X3. Lower opening but better overall legs because word of mouth will be excellent.

$88 Million Opening
$230 Million Domestic

 

[dark_b]

I'm gonna say it brings in a rounded $100 Million on opening weekend and dies out after 10 weeks with $270 Million.

My lowest estimate for the overall gross is $250 and my highest is $300.

The May 1 spot is the source of my $300 million estimate, but yes its not a solid possibility on the count of so much competition opening after it.

I dont think the Star Trek community is a danger to Wolverine, but I do think that Terminator and Transformers will give him a heavy opposition.

so star trek that comes out the next week is no danger? TF2 comes out on 24 june ? TF2 will not have any effect on wolverine.

 

[Peter McCabe]

so star trek that comes out the next week is no danger? TF2 comes out on 24 june ? TF2 will not have any effect on wolverine.

I just dont believe Star Trek appeals to regular people as much as Wolverine does.

*Transformers 2 will compromise the end of Logan's run.

 

[bunk]

I feel like Wolverine has a definite ceiling unlike something like Transformers. People who aren't fans of the X movies aren't likely to see this. Luckily that's still a lot of people, but it creates a built in limit. Opening weekend should be pretty big though, not as much as X3, but still good.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I feel like Wolverine has a definite ceiling unlike something like Transformers. People who aren't fans of the X movies aren't likely to see this. Luckily that's still a lot of people, but it creates a built in limit. Opening weekend should be pretty big though, not as much as X3, but still good.

There are 5 different kinds of people this will appeal to:

-Comic Book fans (less than 10% of overall box office)

-Action movie fans (40% of overall box office)

-People that like watching a good popcorn movie to start the summer regardless of what it is (30% of box office)

-Comic Book movie fans/People that enjoy comic book movies as a genre (20% of overall box office)

-Hugh Jackman fans (1-2% of overall box office)

*Creepy post number...

 

[bunk]

There are 5 different kinds of people this will appeal to:

-Comic Book fans (less than 10% of overall box office)

-Action movie fans (40% of overall box office)

-People that like watching a good popcorn movie to start the summer regardless of what it is (30% of box office)

-Comic Book movie fans/People that enjoy comic book movies as a genre (20% of overall box office)

-Hugh Jackman fans (1-2% of overall box office)

Where did you get these percentages?

 

[Peter McCabe]

Where did you get these percentages?

They're just estimates.

I watch a new movie every week, sometimes 2-3, so I'm pretty keen on what caters to certain people and whether or not its gonna make money.

With TDK, I honestly based my predictions on the overall gross of every other summer blockbuster that came out before it last year and multiplied that number by 2.

Honest.

I think IRON MAN was up to 290 by the time TDK hit, so I started thinking it would bring in a rounded $400 Million (just to be sane).

 

[bunk]

You probably could have made your point without meaningless numbers is all.

 

[Peter McCabe]

You probably could have made your point without meaningless numbers is all.

well lets not go and call them meaningless now

they're educated estimates, just because I dont work for Box Office Mojo or AICN doesnt make them b.s.

I truly believe that's how Wolverine's box office will be distributed throughout the masses.

 

[bunk]

No, they're pretty meaningless unless you're exit polling at theaters.

 

[Peter McCabe]

No, they're pretty meaningless unless you're exit polling at theaters.

that's a bold and very close minded statement.

you should try being more receptive with the beliefs/ideas of others

 

[danoyse]

that's a bold and very close minded statement.

you should try being more receptive with the beliefs/ideas of others

No, they are not very reliable numbers at all. Going to the movies a lot doesn't make you a tracking expert. I go to the movies a lot too (and in two different states), and there's really no way to create percentages like that just based on what you see in the theater.

I think it will do well. I won't underestimate Star Trek though, I think that's going to do a lot better than some are predicting.

 

[Peter McCabe]

No, they are not very reliable numbers at all. Going to the movies a lot doesn't make you a tracking expert. I go to the movies a lot too (and in two different states), and there's really no way to create percentages like that just based on what you see in the theater.

Once again, bold statements.

who are you to tell me my theories are unreliable if YOU are not a tracking expert either?

Its okay if we dont agree on MY numbers, but dont label them as incorrect if you yourself aren't sure if they are or not.

 

[bunk]

that's a bold and very close minded statement.

you should try being more receptive with the beliefs/ideas of others

Not really. You see, to know which members of an audience are Wolverine fans, comic book fans, Hugh Jackman fans, general action movie fans, people with nothing better to do, a mixture of any or all of these, ect... you have to ASK them. There is no other way gather this information. You either have to collect it yourself, or get it from the studio somehow. Otherwise the numbers are meanlingless, sorry. This doesn't invalidate your opinion, but it also does nothing to support it.