Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Ace of Knaves]

Never really got into Harry Potter myself. I like the universe and the whole concept behind a school for wizards and all that. And I love some of the actors like Michael Gambon, Rickman, Fiennes, Maggie Smith and Thewlis. But I actually HATE Harry Potter himself.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I'm a fan of the movies. Can't wait for the next one

 

[Heretic]

Harry Potter will own the summer.

GI Joe looks to be raping my childhood pretty hard, Transformers will do good money, but i cant imagine a repeat of over 300 million...

Again, Trek and terminator will be OVER performers...given the recent history of the franchises...

I think that GI Joe was supposed to be the big movie...but it is a disaster and most people know it.

That leaves Harry Potter...unless Star Trek has amazing legs (I cant imagine Terminator having much, despite Bale)

 

[danoyse]

I saw the GI Joe trailer in front of Star Trek today. It looks awful. I was never into GI Joe, and nothing about that movie looked even remotely appealing. I was never into Transformers as a kid either, but that movie was lots of fun. GI Joe, not so much.

I'm more excited about seeing Christian Bale in Public Enemies then T4.

I also think UP looks fantastic, I hope that one does well.

 

[JP]

My entire audience laughed during the GI Joe trailer.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I guess laughing AT it?

Tis a shame really, I like Dennis Quaid.

 

[danoyse]

My entire audience laughed during the GI Joe trailer.

LOL...my mom and I just liked seeing that quick shot of the Eiffel Tower, since we went there last year. Didn't care about the rest of the trailer.

 

[Spider-Fan]

GI Joe is going to be crap

At least I got good trailers otherwise with Star Trek and Wolverine. Plenty to look forward to still. My top 3 (sans Trek cause I've seen it now) is Potter, Public Enemies, and District 9. Transformers 2 I'm also excited for, amongst others.

 

[Heretic]

As a HUGE GI Joe fan, I will NOT pay to see this film.

Also, Ive never read a Harry Potter book, nor seen a HP film. I just dont care about the concept at all. I think Potter is the only real sure thing though. That and good money for Transformers

 

[CelticPredator]

Script wasnt bad...just sayin.

And Transformers will be HUGE. Bigger then anything. Everyone is excited for TF...cept whiney G1 fans.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think the Summer crown WW goes to Potter, but Transformers 2 can beat it domestically. Transformers had great WOM, and it has only gotten more popular. Potter's BO is predictable by now, while I can see Transformers 2 spiking. Transformers has enough appeal here to possibly beat Potter in the states. It will be close.

While I think Potter will rock hard, my money is on Star Trek being the best overall film this summer. I don't see anything topping it, at least to me.

 

[CelticPredator]

Nah. I think most people are sick of Potter.....atleast the people I know. I gave up at 4. 5 was alright...but still very boring. Lacked the charm of 1 and 2. Plus, I hate teenage BS. I live it...I dont want to watch it thank you very much.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Potter films are very high grossers, and the 6th will be another huge monster WW for WB. The public is clearly not sick of it, as they keep making huge bank and not really dropping much film to film. They are consistant, meaning the base is still interested. It is foolish to write off Potter IMO.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Listen, I didn't like Transformers but I'd be shocked if the sequel didn't win the summer and the year at the U.S boxoffice...I think that some people are letting their dislike of the first flick get in the way of their boxoffice predictions.

Potter will be huge...especially internationally but I don't see it winning domestically. I reckon it has no chance of winning domestically as I believe that T2 is a lock for over 300mil and no Potter movie outside of the first movie has made 300mil domestically.

Terminator Salvation is a dark horse, it could win the year so I'm not counting it out.

Trek is all about the sequel...if it has legs.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Listen, I didn't like Transformers but I'd be shocked if the sequel didn't win the summer and the year at the U.S boxoffice...I think that some people are letting their dislike of the first flick get in the way of their boxoffice predictions.

Agreed. Transformers had solid legs and was well received by the general public. I'd be shocked if Transformers 2 wasn't in the top 2 at least. It would be my personal pick for Domestic BO winner also, with Potter taking the WW title.

 

[night0205]

"hi there, my name is dug, my master gave me this collar so that i might speak, squirrel...hi there."

 

[bullets]

I don't see Potter owning the summer . It will most likely be Transformers 2. I most looking forward to Salvation though.

 

[Heretic]

I do think that there could be a weird impact due to blockbuster apathy.

This summer is hyping huge blockbusters...Wolverine, which is underperforming, Star Trek, which few cared at all about for the past decade, Terminator, which no one thought would bother with another film, Gi Joe, which looks like crap, Up, which looks to be the least fun Pixar film to date, another Potter, another Transformers...

I think that its possible that all this hype over nothing could backfire, and we could see either a bad summer for movies (Despite the fact that bad economies are GOOD for box office) or we could see a surprise hit come out of nowhere.

 

[night0205]

As far as the box office this summer...it's hard to tell, I figure everything that should be a hit will probably make plenty of money. But who knows.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Agreed. Transformers had solid legs and was well received by the general public. I'd be shocked if Transformers 2 wasn't in the top 2 at least. It would be my personal pick for Domestic BO winner also, with Potter taking the WW title.

The nerd brigade said the same thing about Pirates 2 in 2006, dispite the fact that the first movie had some of the best legs ever for a modern blockbuster.

I can't tell you how many times I read, "the first one was a fluke, no way the second movie makes 300mil."

"Superman Returns is easily going to win the year because it has better reviews and the first Pirates sucked."

Nerds need to get out in the real world more often and realize that "dumb" movies they hated aren't always hated by the general public...often normal folks love the movies that nerds hate.

As you have all read, my prediction that Wolverine would drop off the face of the earth had nothing to do with how much I disliked the flick, it had to do with the fact that all the X-men films are frontloaded and I didn't think that it was getting good word of mouth from most normal moviegoers.

Judging by the friday numbers and the fact that StarTrek had the good and expected, but not earth shattering opening, that most thought that it would have, there is no reason that a so-called well recieved Wolverine film should be off 75% from last friday. It's off that much because it's frontloaded and it has bad word of mouth...unless it goes up huge today, then this part of my post is mute.

My point is, my fellow nerds should get over themselves. If you are going to make a boxoffice prediction don't make it based on whether you dug the film or not.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Well, with this HUGE drop in it's second weekend, Wolverine could very well best the competition and take the title for Marvel's movies to date. Currently held by Hulk at 69.7%/#54 all time, whose followed by Elektra at 69% even/#60 all time, then Punisher: War Zone at 67.6%/#82 all time, and finally X-Men: The Last Stand at 66.9%/#100 all time.

This alludes to the fact that Wolverine is not being received well, not by the critics to be sure, not by "some" of the fans, and most importantly for movies this high profile, not by the movie going public at large. With that said, I'm predicting it will be the worst performer out of the 4 X-films so far, when each is adjusted for inflation. Forget TLS, it's already almost 10 million behind X2, and that's WITHOUT adjusting for ticket price inflation. In the end, I'm pretty confident in saying that X1 will have sold more actual tickets, even though Wolverine will appear more successful monetary wise. Do not kid yourselves, this movie WILL be viewed as a disappointment when all is said and done, the writing is on the wall. It will NEVER see 200 million domestically, and even have a tough climb reaching 300 million worldwide I think.

Critically, it was decimated, achieving only 37% positive reviews out of the 218 collected by Rotten Tomatoes. That's almost a full 20% lower when compared with the equally less than stellar Last Stand's 56%, garnered from 220 reviews. X2 remains the high point, and rightfully so, with an 88% favorable rating from 217 reviews. X1 was up there too with 80%, but with far less reviews, only 142. On a scale of 1 to 10, RT breaks the consensus down as follows: X2 @ 7.4 > X1 @ 6.9 > TLS @ 5.9 > & WO @ 5.1 , that's not a good trend for an ongoing franchise. See Superman, Batman, and yes, Star Trek, for evidence of this.

While I never wanted to see an X-movie fail, there's a part of me that is thankful for the response to WO. Ever since TLS, I've wanted the X-Men's film rights to be relinquished by Fox and revert back to Marvel. The only way that's going to happen, is if Fox starts making less money off of their assembly line productions. Just imagine Marvel gets the rights back, decides to reboot the franchise with a year one concept, and then hires J.J. Abrams to do it. For me, THAT formula would be pure X-tasy!!!!!!!

 

[Juha]

All in all this summer looks extremely "meh" from my POV. I'm not a trekker or a Potter fan or even a TF geek.

I guess the biggest BO fight goes down between HP and TF2. Personally I enjoyed the first TF although the second half of the movie was boring. I've seen two or three HP movies and there's nothing magical about them IMO. I'm sure the books are superior in every way. But both HP and TF2 will break the 200 million mark easily.

This summer's bronze medal goes probably to Up because Pixar movies are always doing good even though they've been nothing special after Finding Nemo. Although I still haven't seen WALL-E. Toy Story 3 should be scary huge in 2010.

Personally I will be seeing maybe two or three movies in the theatres this summer(last summer I saw like eight or nine movies). And those movies are Taking of Pelham 123(I have a male crush on Denzel Washington), District 9 and maybe Terminator Salvation. When it comes to these three movies, Salvation will undoubtedly take the cake box office wise.

But yeah, this summer looks average at best when compared to last summer. Both box office wise and quality wise.

 

[Microchip]

"hi there, my name is dug, my master gave me this collar so that i might speak, squirrel...hi there."

That movie will be great. I almost want a kid just so I could go see that movie. And go to the wave pool. I miss the wave pool.

When will the new numbers come in for the weekend? Monday, or do they pretty much know what Wolverine/Star Trek did already?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well, with this HUGE drop in it's second weekend, Wolverine could very well best the competition and take the title for Marvel's movies to date. Currently held by Hulk at 69.7%/#54 all time, whose followed by Elektra at 69% even/#60 all time, then Punisher: War Zone at 67.6%/#82 all time, and finally X-Men: The Last Stand at 66.9%/#100 all time.

This alludes to the fact that Wolverine is not being received well, not by the critics to be sure, not by "some" of the fans, and most importantly for movies this high profile, not by the movie going public at large. With that said, I'm predicting it will be the worst performer out of the 4 X-films so far, when each is adjusted for inflation. Forget TLS, it's already almost 10 million behind X2, and that's WITHOUT adjusting for ticket price inflation. In the end, I'm pretty confident in saying that X1 will have sold more actual tickets, even though Wolverine will appear more successful monetary wise. Do not kid yourselves, this movie WILL be viewed as a disappointment when all is said and done, the writing is on the wall. It will NEVER see 200 million domestically, and even have a tough climb reaching 300 million worldwide I think.

Critically, it was decimated, achieving only 37% positive reviews out of the 218 collected by Rotten Tomatoes. That's almost a full 20% lower when compared with the equally less than stellar Last Stand's 56%, garnered from 220 reviews. X2 remains the high point, and rightfully so, with an 88% favorable rating from 217 reviews. X1 was up there too with 80%, but with far less reviews, only 142. On a scale of 1 to 10, RT breaks the consensus down as follows: X2 @ 7.4 > X1 @ 6.9 > TLS @ 5.9 > & WO @ 5.1 , that's not a good trend for an ongoing franchise. See Superman, Batman, and yes, Star Trek, for evidence of this.

While I never wanted to see an X-movie fail, there's a part of me that is thankful for the response to WO. Ever since TLS, I've wanted the X-Men's film rights to be relinquished by Fox and revert back to Marvel. The only way that's going to happen, is if Fox starts making less money off of their assembly line productions. Just imagine Marvel gets the rights back, decides to reboot the franchise with a year one concept, and then hires J.J. Abrams to do it. For me, THAT formula would be pure X-tasy!!!!!!!

Agreed.

Overall Wolverine's boxoffice will be a disappointment because, although it had a huge opening, it had s**t legs and alot of people didn't like it so that hurts the sequel's monetary prospects. It's as simple as that.

After this weekend it's going to be at like 130mil and it will drop hard next weekend too. The movie has no chance of making 200mil as alot of us said after it opened with 85mil.

 

[neemer5]

Listen, I didn't like Transformers but I'd be shocked if the sequel didn't win the summer and the year at the U.S boxoffice...I think that some people are letting their dislike of the first flick get in the way of their boxoffice predictions.

Potter will be huge...especially internationally but I don't see it winning domestically. I reckon it has no chance of winning domestically as I believe that T2 is a lock for over 300mil and no Potter movie outside of the first movie has made 300mil domestically.

Terminator Salvation is a dark horse, it could win the year so I'm not counting it out.

Trek is all about the sequel...if it has legs.

I agree with what you are saying. I think the Worldwide crown will go to Potter, and the domestic will easily go to Transformers.

I actually think T4 will be a surprise letdown. I don't think it will bomb, but Christian Bale has really drummed up some negative press with his meltdown, the battery charges from his mom and sister, and the whole revelation that the script was rewritten due to his demands. If the film gets bad reviews, Bale will be a an adjunctive reason for people not to see it. Its just my hunch.

Trek will do fine, but not own, and its sequel will do even better. I think Night at the Museum will also likely do very well. The original made 250 million. Inglourious Basterds, Public Enemies and Bruno will exceed expectations but not hit blockbuster status.