So, what happened with the polls?

[Shazam]

The Russians ate my homework!!

 

[Warhorse]

That makes a lot of sense, plus the large number of undecided (who may actually have just been lying, as well).

I mean, I imagine people really don't want to be called a racist, sexist, bigoted, homophobic, transphobic, xenophobic, misogynist, ageist, ableist, etc., person just because they wanted to vote for Trump over Hillary. So, when asked, they probably said they were voting for Hillary or were undecided. Given the willingness of the left to relentlessly go after people they disagree with on social media*, why trust a voice over the phone to keep your answer confidential?

I voted for the candidate (as a write-in) I wanted who didn't make even make it far enough into the primary for me to vote for him then. But, I would have told the pollster it was none of his/her business who I voted for.

Spoiler

*Unnecessary Clarification: My answer is directed toward undisclosed Trump voters, and so the ones who would go after them would naturally be on the left. I am unfortunately well-acquainted with the spats that go on from both sides of the aisle on social media, although I stay away from it, myself.

I agree, I think alot of people were afraid to admit they were voting for Trump because they didn't want the backlash.

When there is a video of a mother throwing her own young son out of the house, emotionally and verbally abusing him for the world to see, are we really that surprised that people kept quiet on who they were voting for?

 

[Warhorse]

I can never tell if you people are just lying to us, or yourselves. Either way it's unconvincing.

Listen conservatives, when a bunch of people who are a different race than you tell you you're being racist, you should probably stop and think about that.

But hey, you sure proved them wrong by electing this race-baiting demagogue. Good on you!

[YT]xNbF9PI9Gjo[/YT]

 

[NHawk19]

I can never tell if you people are just lying to us, or yourselves. Either way it's unconvincing.

Listen conservatives, when a bunch of people who are a different race than you tell you you're being racist, you should probably stop and think about that.

But hey, you sure proved them wrong by electing this race-baiting demagogue. Good on you!

It's a huge misconception that political correctness created Trump. Or that it was the dominant factor in creating Trump.

Trump is primarily the natural result of 40 years of neoliberal policies mixed in with 20 years of Far Right propaganda. Political correctness was the tertiary factor at best.

I'd like to thank you both for proving my point. Neither of you wanted to discuss economics and the rhetoric and instead focused on race and tried calling me a bigot.

My statement was it was for economic reasons. Things like jobs, the middle class and manufacturing. Trump used an old democratic argument to flip traditionally blue states. Listen to Michael Moore. He got it and called it based on the rhetoric Trump was throwing.

 

[Mysteryman]

Nothing happened with the polls.
They are often wrong.

 

[SV Fan]

Nothing happened with the polls.
They are often wrong.

As I pointed out on the previous page the national polls weren't that off. The average of all the polls was 3.3% lead for Clinton, she had a lead of 2.1%.

For the sake of comparison in 2012 they said Obama would get 0.7% more but he got 3.9%

 

[Webfoot Hero]

As I pointed out on the previous page the national polls weren't that off. The average of all the polls was 3.3% lead for Clinton, she had a lead of 2.1%.

For the sake of comparison in 2012 they said Obama would get 0.7% more but he got 3.9%

The problem with national polls is that they fail to take into account what happens in individual states, which is much more important due to the Electoral College. And even in the state polls, they weren't all getting the breakdown of the electorate right, which made some people think Trump had chance in several of the states he won.

 

[Kelly]

The problem with national polls is that they fail to take into account what happens in individual states, which is much more important due to the Electoral College. And even in the state polls, they weren't all getting the breakdown of the electorate right, which made some people think Trump had chance in several of the states he won.

Also, polls that stuck with "registered voters" or "likely voters" which is the vast majority, left out a HUGE NEW DEMOGRAPHIC.... Rural/White/First Time/Voters they were never called, they are not major internet users, they came out of nowhere.

 

[TheVileOne]

Polls are only sampling and are not reliable.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

Polls are only sampling and are not reliable.

This statement doesnt make any sense. Proper sampling/polling is actually quite reliable. And given the fact that Clinton won the popular vote by about the % she was polling ahead of Trump before the election shows they weren't that far off, and a hell of a lot more accurate than they were in 2012.

The problem here was the national polls look at an overall national picture of voting and don't break down along lines of electoral voting.

 

[samsnee]

The thing is, because every respectable poll got it wrong, Trump will use that as his defense when his favorability is in the toilet. He'll say he's more popular than the polls say since the polls had him losing.

 

[SV Fan]

The thing is, because every respectable poll got it wrong, Trump will use that as his defense when his favorability is in the toilet. He'll say he's more popular than the polls say since the polls had him losing.

Thing is national polls didn't get it wrong, the 2 worst polls had Trump getting 2% of the vote and Clinton getting 6%, the rest were within 3% of the actual vote totals(and generally polls give a 3% margin of error).

 

[samsnee]

And you think Trump will consider that nuance?

 

[SV Fan]

And you think Trump will consider that nuance?

No.

For the sake of argument the state polls were much worse and the election prediction places were way off(some saying as high as 98% chance Clinton wins)

 

[TheVileOne]

This statement doesnt make any sense. Proper sampling/polling is actually quite reliable. And given the fact that Clinton won the popular vote by about the % she was polling ahead of Trump before the election shows they weren't that far off, and a hell of a lot more accurate than they were in 2012.

The problem here was the national polls look at an overall national picture of voting and don't break down along lines of electoral voting.

It wasn't this time.

 

[Shikamaru]

I'd like to thank you both for proving my point. Neither of you wanted to discuss economics and the rhetoric and instead focused on race and tried calling me a bigot.

My statement was it was for economic reasons. Things like jobs, the middle class and manufacturing. Trump used an old democratic argument to flip traditionally blue states. Listen to Michael Moore. He got it and called it based on the rhetoric Trump was throwing.

You do realize "neoliberal policies" are economic policies right?

 

[samsnee]

The thing is, because every respectable poll got it wrong, Trump will use that as his defense when his favorability is in the toilet. He'll say he's more popular than the polls say since the polls had him losing.

 

[pghero]

Well, the silent majority certainly existed!

 

[SV Fan]

Well, the silent majority certainly existed!

Given that he won with 46% of the vote I think you mean the silent minority

 

[bell110]

That makes a lot of sense, plus the large number of undecided (who may actually have just been lying, as well).

I mean, I imagine people really don't want to be called a racist, sexist, bigoted, homophobic, transphobic, xenophobic, misogynist, ageist, ableist, etc., person just because they wanted to vote for Trump over Hillary. So, when asked, they probably said they were voting for Hillary or were undecided. Given the willingness of the left to relentlessly go after people they disagree with on social media*, why trust a voice over the phone to keep your answer confidential?

I voted for the candidate (as a write-in) I wanted who didn't make even make it far enough into the primary for me to vote for him then. But, I would have told the pollster it was none of his/her business who I voted for.

Spoiler

*Unnecessary Clarification: My answer is directed toward undisclosed Trump voters, and so the ones who would go after them would naturally be on the left. I am unfortunately well-acquainted with the spats that go on from both sides of the aisle on social media, although I stay away from it, myself.

Why are people surprised by this? The whole concept behind representative democracy is that you vote for the person you think will protect your interests? A lot of people in America aren't in a financial position where they can make a moral choice and hope for improved circumstances simultaneously. They were taken in by Trump's isolationist rhetoric thinking it will benefit them.

Some disenfranchised and unemployed steel workers aren't suddenly closet KKK members because they took a (admittedly bad) gamble on Trump hoping he'd take care of them. This idea that voting is a moral issue for many people is so naive it's not even funny. Most of us on the hype probably have the luxury of material circumstances where making a moral point with your vote was an option. A lot of the people who voted for Trump likely did so because they chose the candidate whose election they thought was most likely to deliver them a job.

If it isn't racist for the democrats to have captured minority voters it isn't racist for the republicans to have captured white votes, people vote for whoever will represent them. While it may morally be correct for the unemployed steel worker to vote for Clinton I don't think having a moral high ground pays his bills.

This is it. People sided with Trump for economic reasons and got tired of being called racist, facist etc. by the supposedly tolerant left side.

Just like the left side isn't all the extreme left. The right isn't all extreme right. The right just got tired of being labeled that way every time they wanted to have a reasonable discussion.

I agree, I think alot of people were afraid to admit they were voting for Trump because they didn't want the backlash.

When there is a video of a mother throwing her own young son out of the house, emotionally and verbally abusing him for the world to see, are we really that surprised that people kept quiet on who they were voting for?

I agree with all of these statements. I wonder if the left are going to make the same mistake next time.