Does anyone think that the MCU deal might not get renewed after his next Marvel team-up appearance?
I think there's a decent chance if Disney asks for a renewal of the current terms it gets extended but if Disney wants a bigger slice of the box office I suspect Sony will have to put their foot down.
I think the Sony executives will be watching Matt Reeves The Batman very closely. We're now getting a reboot in THE SAME YEAR as it's previous iteration comes out (Ben Affleck is in The Flash 2022 in some capacity). We now know audiences are generally used to reboots coming very very quickly. The Batman will be set in it's own universe apart from the DCEU and if it's a success I think we could once again see Sony do a soft reboot franchise outside the MCU though will the same cast as the MCU iteration
I think Sony and Disney will continue to re-up as long as possible. The deal will continue to be renegotiated over the years and there may be more briknsmanship on both sides along the way, but like the last time, they'll work it out.
There's just too much money on both ends to walk away from, and the relationship is too beneficial, even with the clashing egos at both studios.
If they ever
did decide to break away from Disney, it would really have to depend on when the break happens.
If Holland walks after a few more films ,including solo and appearances in other heroes's films, then it becomes more of a natural time for Sony and Disney to part ways, and for Sony to hard or soft reboot it.
If they got a new lead, Sony could soft reboot ala the Bond franchise from the 60's through 2002, or they could just hard reboot it, though a hard reboot would also have to depend on whether or not they'd want the 4th version of Peter Parker interacting with whatever they're doing with their spinoff films.
Then of course, there's always the fanboy dream of Disney buying the Spiderman rights which would make the issue moot. However, given everything that's happened this year, and Disney likely not wanting to make another huge purchase anytime soon, I'm skeptical that's even an option in the near term, i.e, the next couple of years.