Spiderman V/S Godzilla V/S X-Men in 2014

[animex]

I know this thread is going to kick up a **** storm, but oh well


Spiderman comes out 2 weeks before Godzilla comes out a week before X-Men Dofp.

Which movie do you think will be king of the box office in 2014?

Things to take into consideration:

1. Brian Singer Is directing Dofp, and his last 3 movies combined lost money for the studios, When you take into account that the studios gets roughly 40% of overseas grosses. His last 3 movies cost 540 mil, they made 248 overseas, for a net loss of 16 mil. And this movie will get NO merchandise support from Disney. So this movie will rely heavily on word of mouth, But NO huge pr campaign unless Fox is willing to pay out of pocket for it. And judging by the almost non existent pr campaigns for Wolverine, X-Men: First Class, and The Wolverine, I doubt they will.

2. TASM2 is dropping between Captain America and Godzilla, and starting with this movie it is highly doubtful that Disney will give merchandise support when it would mean they would be helping Sony compete against Captain America, Especially if Sony is not willing to play ball and share Spiderman. and this movie will rely heavily on word of mouth, but NO huge pr campaign unless Sony is willing to pay out of pocket for it.

3. There has only been one big-budget movie that resembled Godzilla, and that was 98's G.i.n.o.,which to be fair was 15 years ago. and since then there have been six REAL Godzilla movies released up until 2004 (on a VERY small budget all Japanese produced) So Godzilla fans have had 6 years to forgive Toho for allowing Sony to touch their tentpole and 10 years of anticipation after that, Now Godzilla will have a HUGE pr blitz and will NOT be hamstringed by lack of merchandise. and lets not forget that the Godzilla teaser practically blew the roof off of Comicon. One downside however is if Pacific Rim tanks, It would hurt the Godzilla film. (Non-fans would lose interest in the genre)

So share your thoughts and keep the insults to a minimum

 

[starscream22]

Amazing Spider-man will have two weeks by itself to rack up as much dough as possible. I don't see it making as much as IM3 though that's likely what Sony is hoping for.

Godzilla could go either way...If the reviews are promising and the trailers look good then Godzilla will be more of a problem for X-men than for Spidey since by then ASM will be on cruise control. If Pacific Rim is good Goodzilla could ride off of it's success as well I suppose.

X-men I believe is hoping to do Fast6's numbers which is why they made the release date swap with Planet of the Apes and with nothing coming out the following weekend that's really all that promising I'm sure X-men will succeed unless the reviews and word of mouth is horrible.


As for merchandizing you're highly mistaken. Back in 2011 Disney and Sony made a swap. Disney gets full control over merchandizing in exchange for Sony getting full control over ASM's movie revenue. To get a better understanding of that, MOS made close to $200 million in merchandizing before the movie even released in the US. So why on earth would Disney lose out on that type of bank? Trust me Spidey's movie merchandize will be siting right next to Capt America's since Disney will see all of the proceeds.

DOFP on the other hand wont see squat since Fox would be entitled to most of it if I'm not mistaken.

Spider-man will likely be the best out of the 3 with a toss up between X-men and Godzilla but Transformer4 will likely reign supreme next Summer...no mater how terrible it is unfortunately.

 

[animex]

Amazing Spider-man will have two weeks by itself to rack up as much dough as possible. I don't see it making as much as IM3 though that's likely what Sony is hoping for.

Godzilla could go either way...If the reviews are promising and the trailers look good then Godzilla will be more of a problem for X-men than for Spidey since by then ASM will be on cruise control. If Pacific Rim is good Goodzilla could ride off of it's success as well I suppose.

X-men I believe is hoping to do Fast6's numbers which is why they made the release date swap with Planet of the Apes and with nothing coming out the following weekend that's really all that promising I'm sure X-men will succeed unless the reviews and word of mouth is horrible.


As for merchandizing you're highly mistaken. Back in 2011 Disney and Sony made a swap. Disney gets full control over merchandizing in exchange for Sony getting full control over ASM's movie revenue. To get a better understanding of that, MOS made close to $200 million in merchandizing before the movie even released in the US. So why on earth would Disney lose out on that type of bank? Trust me Spidey's movie merchandize will be siting right next to Capt America's since Disney will see all of the proceeds.

DOFP on the other hand wont see squat since Fox would be entitled to most of it if I'm not mistaken.

Spider-man will likely be the best out of the 3 with a toss up between X-men and Godzilla but Transformer4 will likely reign supreme next Summer...no mater how terrible it is unfortunately.

Very good points, But keep in mind this is Hollywood, And money does matter. But one thing that MUST be kept in consideration is the fact that Disney might be better served if they hurt Sony and lose money (which wouldn't be enough to hurt Disney) Rather than help Sony and make money that once again would make no difference to them. Disney wants their movies to succeed first and FOREMOST, Helping Sony's movie to succeed only means they are helping Sony KEEP Spiderman, Which would be the opposite of what Disney wants. Remember when Disney purchased Marvel, They had their attorneys go over the contracts with a fine tooth comb to see if there was a way to bring ALL of their properties under one roof. And I imagine the thinking at Disney has not changed.

Its better to lose money you never had to begin with to hurt REAL competition than to make money and help them.

Disney will be releasing Wolverine figures, Which will be generically branded "Marvel's Wolverine" which are not tied directly to the movie. So I am certain that Fox gets nothing for this. Now in this situation, Disney is not advertising Fox's movie, They are are profiting off of it. This is different than next year because The Wolverine is not competing with any Marvel/Disney movie, When it comes out in late July, Iron Man 3's run will be over and Thor will be 4-5 months away.

 

[starscream22]

Very good points, But keep in mind this is Hollywood, And money does matter. But one thing that MUST be kept in consideration is the fact that Disney might be better served if they hurt Sony and lose money (which wouldn't be enough to hurt Disney) Rather than help Sony and make money that once again would make no difference to them. Disney wants their movies to succeed first and FOREMOST, Helping Sony's movie to succeed only means they are helping Sony KEEP Spiderman, Which would be the opposite of what Disney wants. Remember when Disney purchased Marvel, They had their attorneys go over the contracts with a fine tooth comb to see if there was a way to bring ALL of their properties under one roof. And I imagine the thinking at Disney has not changed.

Its better to lose money you never had to begin with to hurt REAL competition than to make money and help them.

Disney will be releasing Wolverine figures, Which will be generically branded "Marvel's Wolverine" which are not tied directly to the movie. So I am certain that Fox gets nothing for this. Now in this situation, Disney is not advertising Fox's movie, They are are profiting off of it. This is different than next year because The Wolverine is not competing with any Marvel/Disney movie, When it comes out in late July, Iron Man 3's run will be over and Thor will be 4-5 months away.

Based on your previous post I'd say your heart is in the right place. But saying that Hollywood's not in it for the money w/o any proof wont sit too well with most of the people you find yourself debating with and rightfully so.

Based on those accusations why would Disney get in bed with Sony in the first place?

"

This transaction will allow us to control and fully benefit from all Spiderman merchandising activity, while Sony will continue to produce and distribute Spiderman films. We won't be specific about the economics of this 2-way transaction, but we expect it will drive attractive returns for Disney."​

​

I personally think that Ghost Rider's rights were all a part of that merchandizing deal to sweeten the pot otherwise it wouldn't have reverted back so soon. Spirit of Vengeance only released last year and the original GH released in "07" So Sony had plenty of time to sit on this franchise or even consider a reboot like they did with Spider-man. Base on the gap between the first two films I'd assume Sony would have at least 5 years to so.

So some type of deal had to come about. Sure Marvel would love to have all it's eggs in one basket but sitting on Spider-man merchandize to prove some type of lame penniless point would be stupid.

The Winter Soldier merchandise is going to do what it's going to do regardless of Spider-man but lets face it, Spider-man is a far larger character than Cap. So mark my words Disney is going to capitalize off that deal. Sony's the one that has to shell out for the film's multi-hundred million dollar budget and advertising cost.

All Disney has to do is sign the endorsement deals.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm hoping X-Men: Days of Future Past will outgross both films!

 

[GENERAL RAAM582]

I just want all the films to do good critically and financially. I love Spider-Man and X-Men, and while I don't love Godzilla I do find the old films to be good stupid fun.

 

[animex]

Based on your previous post I'd say your heart is in the right place. But saying that Hollywood's not in it for the money w/o any proof wont sit too well with most of the people you find yourself debating with and rightfully so.

Based on those accusations why would Disney get in bed with Sony in the first place?




I personally think that Ghost Rider's rights were all a part of that merchandizing deal to sweeten the pot otherwise it wouldn't have reverted back so soon. Spirit of Vengeance only released last year and the original GH released in "07" So Sony had plenty of time to sit on this franchise or even consider a reboot like they did with Spider-man. Base on the gap between the first two films I'd assume Sony would have at least 5 years to so.

So some type of deal had to come about. Sure Marvel would love to have all it's eggs in one basket but sitting on Spider-man merchandize to prove some type of lame penniless point would be stupid.

The Winter Soldier merchandise is going to do what it's going to do regardless of Spider-man but lets face it, Spider-man is a far larger character than Cap. So mark my words Disney is going to capitalize off that deal. Sony's the one that has to shell out for the film's multi-hundred million dollar budget and advertising cost.

All Disney has to do is sign the endorsement deals.

You bring valuable insight to this discussion and I appreciate it.

I anticipate Disney will do what they are doing for "The Wolverine", They will release NON-movie branded merchandise to make money, But I just don't see them releasing TASM 2 branded merchandise, Not unless they have come to some agreement with Sony about a potential crossover.

Just to be realistic, I find it safe to say that any Marvel fan worth their salt would love to see Spiderman in an Avengers film, Which could only benefit Sony's movie and the franchise as a whole, I think the Spiderman movies would make more money if they were to lead into an Avengers appearence.

 

[animex]

I'm hoping X-Men: Days of Future Past will outgross both films!

Judging by the box office declines of the last two movies, And Singers recent box office numbers, I don't see this happening.


My Predictions:

1. Godzilla: 300-400 Mil
2. Transformers: 300+
3. TASM 2: 250-275
4. Winter Soldier: 175+
5. DOFP: 100-150

Domestic

 

[jonathancrane]

I think it will be an even contest btw. DOFP and ASM2. Godzilla has a lot going against it, so if it reaches 200 mill, I will be very surprised.

 

[Anno_Domini]

I just want all the films to do good critically and financially. I love Spider-Man and X-Men, and while I don't love Godzilla I do find the old films to be good stupid fun.

It's hard to even care about critically when you appreciate a movie so much and it's blasted by the critics

Though, the films I am more excited for in order are(CBMs in bold):

1.) Noah
2.) Interstellar
3.) Transcendence
4.) The Hobbit: There and Back Again
5.) X-Men: Days of Future Past
6.) Guardians of the Galaxy
7.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
8.) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
9.) Godzilla
10.) RoboCop
11.) The Amazing Spider-Man 2
12.) Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
13.) Hercules
14.) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
15.) 300: Rise of an Empire
16.) 22 Jump Street

 

[psylockolussus]

Judging by the box office declines of the last two movies, And Singers recent box office numbers, I don't see this happening.

My Predictions:

1. Godzilla: 300-400 Mil
2. Transformers: 300+
3. TASM 2: 250-275
4. Winter Soldier: 175+
5. DOFP: 100-150

Domestic

Wow you are underestimating Days of Future Past. First Class earned 140+ without Wolverine and the more well-known characters. This movie has the First Class cast, Wolverine and the other more-well known characters from the original trilogy.

And Godzilla wouldn't be a big hit. Its not even well-known as the X-Men to outgross all of those films. At best, it would perform like King Kong.

 

[GoblinScrier]

Spiderman will do well...its Spiderman

X-men just scares the hell out of me since its Fox and well look at the last three installments (Last Stand,x-men origins wolverine, and first class)...scary!!

Finally, the property I care so much about...the King! Godzilla..28 Japanese installments most awesome a few forgettable. Then 1998 arrived and I just cried lol...that American travesty was beyond an insult but time has passed...wounds healed and now Legendary is set to bring us an amazing (or should I say what looks to be amazing) Godzilla movie. Personally I can't wait and I see no reason why it won't be a success...they are banking on this being a franchise...like Blue Oyster Cult said, "GO GO GODZILLA!"

 

[Anno_Domini]

First Class wasn't bad.

 

[psylockolussus]

First Class and Origins didn't earn more money than X3 since they were prequels and usually prequels don't earn more money than the original series (except if its a Star Wars or The Hobbit prequel). Even if X3/Origins were good movies, the two prequels will still earn less than X3.

 

[animex]

Wow you are underestimating Days of Future Past. First Class earned 140+ without Wolverine and the more well-known characters. This movie has the First Class cast, Wolverine and the other more-well known characters from the original trilogy.

And Godzilla wouldn't be a big hit. Its not even well-known as the X-Men to outgross all of those films. At best, it would perform like King Kong.

First Class made 146 mil to be exact, and lost money domestically, and Wolverine had a cameo, Wolverine made 179 mil for a profit of 29 mil domestically.

It seems that nobody wants to admit the truth, And that is the X-Men movies cannot survive without strong pr support and merchandising that relates directly to the movie. First Class proved that word of mouth only helps so much. The Wolverine will give us a better idea of how the future may pan out.


Godzilla has been around since 1954, Has a star on the walk of fame, Has MILLIONS of fans in America alone. And lets not forget that G.i.no. 98 (The horrible movie that it was) made more money worldwide than Wolverine and First Class (NOT combined) And that's not taking "adjusted for inflation" into account either.

I think you underestimate Godzilla

 

[animex]

First Class and Origins didn't earn more money than X3 since they were prequels and usually prequels don't earn more money than the original series (except if its a Star Wars or The Hobbit prequel). Even if X3/Origins were good movies, the two prequels will still earn less than X3.

And what prequels are you basing this off of?

Underworld? No Kate Beckinsale in latex = Poor ticket sales and most other prequels went straight to video and/or didn't have any of the original cast.

Monsters University is on pace to beat the original

Temple of Doom didn't beat Raiders, but it was hardly a failure

 

[animex]

Spiderman will do well...its Spiderman

X-men just scares the hell out of me since its Fox and well look at the last three installments (Last Stand,x-men origins wolverine, and first class)...scary!!

Finally, the property I care so much about...the King! Godzilla..28 Japanese installments most awesome a few forgettable. Then 1998 arrived and I just cried lol...that American travesty was beyond an insult but time has passed...wounds healed and now Legendary is set to bring us an amazing (or should I say what looks to be amazing) Godzilla movie. Personally I can't wait and I see no reason why it won't be a success...they are banking on this being a franchise...like Blue Oyster Cult said, "GO GO GODZILLA!"

AT LAST!!!! Someone who understands the power of Godzilla

 

[Morcego]

Well, I can see TASM2 being the top grosser, it's spidey after all, but I do believe DoFP will be the best movie.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

TASM2 -800 m ww
DoFP - 800 m ww
Godzilla - 600 m ww

 

[starscream22]

Wow you are underestimating Days of Future Past. First Class earned 140+ without Wolverine and the more well-known characters. This movie has the First Class cast, Wolverine and the other more-well known characters from the original trilogy.

And Godzilla wouldn't be a big hit. Its not even well-known as the X-Men to outgross all of those films. At best, it would perform like King Kong.

You're saying that FC made $140 million without Wolverine but most would agree that FC only made $140 million because of Wolverine Origins poor feedback. And as a result people aren't confident that The Wolverine will be good. The few diehard fans the franchise still has left are simply praying that its not all that bad.

If Pacific Rim is good and Godzilla is even better than Singer and company are going to have a problem. So if Godzilla does mirror King Kong's numbers be mindful that King Kong did $550 million in 2005 and no X-film to date has made more than $460 million world wide.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

King Kong also had Peter Jackson directing when his name carried the most weight. Kong was his first film after LOTR.

I think 600- 650 m ww seems resonable for Godzilla at this time. Trailers could amp things up, but I don't get the sense that audiences in North America will be as amped up this time around for Godzilla as they were in '98. We shall see.

 

[animex]

King Kong also had Peter Jackson directing when his name carried the most weight. Kong was his first film after LOTR.

I think 600- 650 m ww seems resonable for Godzilla at this time. Trailers could amp things up, but I don't get the sense that audiences in North America will be as amped up this time around for Godzilla as they were in '98. We shall see.

The odds of ANY X-Men movie making 800 mil ww while Fox still owns it are slim to none.

Spiderman will have to be "amazing" to make over 800 mil, Especially with no direct merchandise tie-ins, That is if Disney does what they are doing to the X-Men films.


And 16 years is a LOOOOOOOOOONG time to us Godzilla fans, I personally have faith that Edwards will get it right, And in defense of that horrible 98 movie, Roland Emmerich said he was never a fan of the Godzilla movies and he only agreed to direct it because Sony gave him complete control and an ass ton of money. (Not his exact words mind you)

 

[starscream22]

King Kong also had Peter Jackson directing when his name carried the most weight. Kong was his first film after LOTR.

I think 600- 650 m ww seems resonable for Godzilla at this time. Trailers could amp things up, but I don't get the sense that audiences in North America will be as amped up this time around for Godzilla as they were in '98. We shall see.

I really didn't care too much for Kong but someone else brought it up.

Legendary Pictures/WB does need a win in May since there's no DC films coming anytime soon so I don't think they'll take this reboot lightly.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The odds of ANY X-Men movie making 800 mil ww while Fox still owns it are slim to none.

Spiderman will have to be "amazing" to make over 800 mil, Especially with no direct merchandise tie-ins, That is if Disney does what they are doing to the X-Men films.


And 16 years is a LOOOOOOOOOONG time to us Godzilla fans, I personally have faith that Edwards will get it right, And in defense of that horrible 98 movie, Roland Emmerich said he was never a fan of the Godzilla movies and he only agreed to direct it because Sony gave him complete control and an ass ton of money. (Not his exact words mind you)

X-Men will lose out on the merchandise side, but this is an event film and unlike any other X-Film. It will have a scale not seen before in this universe. I think 700 - 800 m ww is definitely in the cards with 3D and expanded markets. I'm expecting the film to be very solid. Singer's track record has not been great as of late but I'm counting on the X-Men reunion to bring out some of his past glory. I'm being optimistic.

A decent TASM fim made 750 m ww. If we get a better and more sincere effort with the sequel, then 800 m seems like a given. Spider-Man is my favorite character but I have to admit that the last two outings don't inspire great confidence that the film will be great. Good is one thing, GREAT is another. The ingredients are there for something big, but Sony is going to have to prove it to me before I fully buy in. That's the only reason I'm not predicting higher then 800 m.

Godzilla could be huge but I'm unsure of the GA appetite for it. I have no connection to the character at all so it's hard for me to say. I think my prediction of 600- 650m is solid at this point, but I just don't see it having the same appeal. I guess time will tell who's right.

 

[animex]

X-Men will lose out on the merchandise side, but this is an event film and unlike any other X-Film. It will have a scale not seen before in this universe. I think 700 - 800 m ww is definitely in the cards with 3D and expanded markets. I'm expecting the film to be very solid. Singer's track record has not been great as of late but I'm counting on the X-Men reunion to bring out some of his past glory. I'm being optimistic.

A decent TASM fim made 750 m ww. If we get a better and more sincere effort with the sequel, then 800 m seems like a given. Spider-Man is my favorite character but I have to admit that the last two outings don't inspire great confidence that the film will be great. Good is one thing, GREAT is another. The ingredients are there for something big, but Sony is going to have to prove it to me before I fully buy in. That's the only reason I'm not predicting higher then 800 m.

Godzilla could be huge but I'm unsure of the GA appetite for it. I have no connection to the character at all so it's hard for me to say. I think my prediction of 600- 650m is solid at this point, but I just don't see it having the same appeal. I guess time will tell who's right.

Event films are backed by MASSIVE pr campaigns, And since X3, Fox has put next to nothing out there for advertising for Wolverine and First Class. And even The Wolverine has only gotten trailers and posters, I doubt Fox will pay money out of pocket to advertise a movie, Especially with NO merchandising royalties to cover it. Fox is banking solely on Singers past success with the first X-Men movies, The last of which will be 11 years old by the time DOFP hits theaters.

Sorry my friend, But history is against it.