The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Ozbridge]

After the divisive The Last Jedi and the tepid A Solo Story, how will Episode IX, the last movie of the sequel trilogy, perform at the box office? I have split the options into domestic and worldwide, as Star Wars movies don't have domestic/ foreign break down similar to other blockbusters, so please choose 2 options. You can change your vote after voting. Poll closes on December 28 2019, on the Saturday of 2nd weekend.

Competition:

- 4 weeks before: Frozen 2

- 3 weeks before: Queen & Slim, an independent romance drama staring Daniel Kaluuya, about a black couple killing a police officer in self-defense and go on the run.

- 1 week before:

Jumanji Sequel
Blumhouse horror
​

- 2 days before:

He-Man movie Masters of the Universe penned by David Goyer
Universal's musical Cats staring Taylor Swift, Jennifer Hudson, James Corden and Ian McKellen
​

- 5 days later (Christmas Day)

Fox's "Call of the Wild" adaptation staring Harrison Ford, Dan Stevens, Karen Gillan and Omar Sy
Sony's Little Women
WB's action comedy Superintelligence staring Melissa McCarthy
​

- 2 weeks later: another Blumhouse horror

- 3 weeks later: Phil Lord and Chris Miller's animation from Sony

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Interest over time
Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2018-11-20&geo=US&q=/m/06mmr

 

[Mandon Knight]

Between $1.2-$1.3 B WW I reckon. Somewhere around $1.25B

 

[Lilbaz]

Put 1-1.2bn. Think it might just get over the bn mark but wouldn't suprise me if it's less. Think a lot of people have lost interest in this trilogy.

 

[Gothamsknight]

Put 1-1.2bn. Think it might just get over the bn mark but wouldn't suprise me if it's less. Think a lot of people have lost interest in this trilogy.

Care to explain why you think that's the case?

 

[Lilbaz]

Care to explain why you think that's the case?

You just have to look at the box office deline for the films. It will make money but star wars as a brand isn't as strong as it was especially outside of america. People aren't as invested in the new characters and other films have just as good sfx.
Tlj pissed off a lot of the hardcore fans that would usually see multiple screenings.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I think it will get a boost out of the "this is the end!" marketing strategy that they are likely to employ, but I don't see this film getting close to TFA's box office, so I'd say 1.5 billion WW.

 

[Silver Surfer]

TLJ did irreparable damage to the Star Wars brand, as witnessed by the massacre at the boxoffice that was Solo. The hardcore fan-base is pissed, and unless you want to bring them back on board by doing something drastic, like bringing Luke back to life, they are gonna surround this movie with so much negativity that it's gonna be handicapped. Also Star Wars has failed to make inroads in Asia, it's performance in China has gone from average to abysmal. TLJ's boxoffice is the ceiling for this, the floor being Venom.

 

[MadVillainy]

TLJ did irreparable damage to the Star Wars brand, as witnessed by the massacre at the boxoffice that was Solo. The hardcore fan-base is pissed, and unless you want to bring them back on board by doing something drastic, like bringing Luke back to life, they are gonna surround this movie with so much negativity that it's gonna be handicapped. Also Star Wars has failed to make inroads in Asia, it's performance in China has gone from average to abysmal. TLJ's boxoffice is the ceiling for this, the floor being Venom.

I think as much as the hardcore fanbase complains, they'll be back. I get why they didn't for "Solo" but for a main Episode? I think they'll still show up

I think it will get a boost out of the "this is the end!" marketing strategy that they are likely to employ, but I don't see this film getting close to TFA's box office, so I'd say 1.5 billion WW.

I don't know about how the GA feels but I feel like a major problem for this is there's no interesting ending. Rey and Kylo have fought before and we've seen the outcome of that, we know the good guys are largely going to win...I feel like there's not that much riding on "See the conclusion"
But I could be wrong.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I don't know about how the GA feels but I feel like a major problem for this is there's no interesting ending. Rey and Kylo have fought before and we've seen the outcome of that, we know the good guys are largely going to win...I feel like there's not that much riding on "See the conclusion"
But I could be wrong.

True, obviously there's no Engame leves of interest amongst the GA. Hell, I'm a Star Wars fan and I don't feel like much anticipation or like I need to see a trailer. I'm just waiting for the movie to come out...And see what they do with it. I'm kinda concerned because this movie is supposed to be the ending to the Skywalker saga. I loved the TLJ experience but I was not a fan of what they did with Luke. I know they can't reverse his characterization, even if they "undo" his demise...But anyway, This film will be successful because it's gonna be the last Star Wars main saga film for a while. It's most likely not gonna break out the way TFA did. It could certainly still outgross TLJ though.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think as much as the hardcore fanbase complains, they'll be back. I get why they didn't for "Solo" but for a main Episode? I think they'll still show up

Most will, but quite a few won't. And the most that do show up, won't necessarily show up for repeat viewings like they did for TFA. However, the problem of negativity will remain if the hardcore fanbase isn't pleased, they will flood the internet with nothing but hate and drown out any hype for the movie if it doesn't course correct from TLJ in categorical ways.

 

[Brother Jack]

TLJ did irreparable damage to the Star Wars brand, as witnessed by the massacre at the boxoffice that was Solo. The hardcore fan-base is pissed, and unless you want to bring them back on board by doing something drastic, like bringing Luke back to life, they are gonna surround this movie with so much negativity that it's gonna be handicapped. Also Star Wars has failed to make inroads in Asia, it's performance in China has gone from average to abysmal. TLJ's boxoffice is the ceiling for this, the floor being Venom.

Solo disappointed because it came out in May and didn't have strong marketing behind it to sell audiences on the premise of the movie. The backlash against TLJ had little to do with it beyond a small, vocal minority of fanboys who boycotted it for asinine reasons. The "hardcore fanbase" isn't monolithic, nor is it as large or as powerful as you are suggesting.

 

[Lilbaz]

Solo disappointed because it came out in May and didn't have strong marketing behind it to sell audiences on the premise of the movie. The backlash against TLJ had little to do with it beyond a small, vocal minority of fanboys who boycotted it for asinine reasons. The "hardcore fanbase" isn't monolithic, nor is it as large or as powerful as you are suggesting.

Have you counted them?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Solo disappointed because it came out in May and didn't have strong marketing behind it to sell audiences on the premise of the movie. The backlash against TLJ had little to do with it beyond a small, vocal minority of fanboys who boycotted it for asinine reasons. The "hardcore fanbase" isn't monolithic, nor is it as large or as powerful as you are suggesting.

- Solo wasn't a "disappointment", it was a flat out box office bomb.

- If Solo was released a few months after TFA, instead of TLJ it would have been night and day in terms of the excitement it could have generated.

- The backlash against TLJ had the most to do with it, TLJ incubated an unrivaled amount of toxicity around Star Wars. Post anything TLJ related on YT, Facebook, Twitter, etc and watch what happens in a matter of minutes.

- Even the people who liked TLJ got sick of the unrelenting negativity and wanted a break from Star Wars.

- The fanbase doesn't need to be monolithic for the majority of it to make its presence felt.

- Star Wars has the largest fanbase in movies, spanning multiple generations. Just check out Star Wars celebration if you need validation of that. Only recently has Marvel closed the gap somewhat.

 

[harlequinade]

This will not go well.

 

[Brother Jack]

- The backlash against TLJ had the most to do with it, TLJ incubated an unrivaled amount of toxicity around Star Wars. Post anything TLJ related on YT, Facebook, Twitter, etc and watch what happens in a matter of minutes.

You must not have been around when the prequels were coming out. This is nothing new.

- Star Wars has the largest fanbase in movies, spanning multiple generations. Just check out Star Wars celebration if you need validation of that. Only recently has Marvel closed the gap somewhat.

Exactly my point. Most everyone in western civilization is a Star Wars fan to one degree or another, and the vast majority of them could not care less what some hyper-reactionary fanboy has to say on Twitter or Youtube. Now of course there is some diffusion of opinion because of the internet and social media, but I don't see much evidence to suggest the degree to which the opinions of that echo-chamber permeate the opinion of the general audience is that high. There are plenty of films that have been despised by significant portions of their fanbases and have still made bank. Transformers comes to mind, and that has gotten way more hate than anything in this era of Star Wars.

 

[Silver Surfer]

You must not have been around when the prequels were coming out. This is nothing new.



Exactly my point. Most everyone in western civilization is a Star Wars fan to one degree or another, and the vast majority of them could not care less what some hyper-reactionary fanboy has to say on Twitter or Youtube. Now of course there is some diffusion of opinion because of the internet and social media, but I don't see much evidence to suggest the degree to which the opinions of that echo-chamber permeate the opinion of the general audience is that high. There are plenty of films that have been despised by significant portions of their fanbases and have still made bank. Transformers comes to mind, and that has gotten way more hate than anything in this era of Star Wars.

There was no social media or the mass proliferation of the internet back in the prequel days to exacerbate said backlash. The vast majority of the vast fanbase did care about the backlash of TLJ, that's why they didn't show up for Solo, why TLJ had the worst boxoffice multiplier of any of the episodes, why TLJ missed all it's merchandise targets, and why TLJ's bluray sales were abysmal.

 

[spiderman2]

I really have no clue I loved TLJ liked TFA even more but I known TLJ pissed off a lot of the fan base. The reception difference between TFA and TLJ is like night and day. TLJ made like 700 million less that TFA and that is a lot. I known that TFA was the first star wars movie in a long time but that was really only a small reason for the difference. TLJ had bad box office legs and even more so for a December movie that shows that there where a lot less repeat viewings than TFA and that WOM was a lot worse to. Most people loved TFA and even people that didn't dont normal hate it just think it was like to much of the same thing where with TLJ I lot of people hate the movie and say the prequles are better and that it destroyed the franchise. I never heard any one say that TFA was trash and worse than the prequles and destroyed the franchise like I hear people say about TLJ.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Star Wars movies were the most anticipated on Fandango in 2015, 2016, and 2017 matching the result for the year. Solo charted as #5 most anticipated for 2018 and ended up potentially as #9 or worse. Episode IX charted as #3 and the result yet to be determined.

Fandango Most Anticipated 2018 movies:

1. Avengers: Infinity War (May 4)
2. Black Panther (Feb. 16)
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (June 22)
4. Untitled Deadpool Sequel (June 1)
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 25)
6. Incredibles 2 (June 15)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov. 16)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (March 9)
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Nov. 2)
10. Ocean’s 8 (June 8)

Actual results*:

1. Black Panther ($202M opening; $700M) (Disney)
2. Avengers: Infinity War ($258M opening; $679M) (Disney)
3. Incredibles 2 ($183M opening; $609M) (Disney)
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($148M opening; $417M) (Universal)
5. Deadpool 2 ($126M opening; $318M) (FOX)
6. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch ($68M opening; $263M) (Universal)
7. Mission: Impossible - Fallout ($61M opening; $220M) (Paramount)
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp ($76M opening; $217M) (Disney)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84M opening; $214M) (Disney)
10. Venom ($80M opening; $213M) (Sony)

* Aquaman, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Star Is Born with a Gravity-like expansion could potentially bump some of these out of the Top 10.

Fandango Most Anticipated 2017 movies:

1. Star Wars: Episode VIII
2. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Wonder Woman
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. Justice League
7. The Fate of the Furious
8. Fifty Shades Darker
9. Logan
10. Despicable Me 3

Actual results:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220M opening; $620M) (Disney)
2. Beauty and the Beast ($175M opening; $504M) (Disney)
3. Wonder Woman ($103M opening; $413M) (Warner Bros.)
4. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle ($36M opening; $405M) (Sony)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($147M opening; $390M) (Disney)
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming ($117M opening; $334M) (Disney)
7. It ($123M opening; $327M) (Warner Bros.)
8. Thor: Ragnarok ($123M opening; $315M) (Disney)
9. Despicable Me 3 ($72M opening; $265M) (Universal)
10. Justice League ($94M opening; $229M) (Warner Bros.)

Episode IX did not chart for the IMDb Top 10 anticipated list for 2019.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Avengers 4: Endgame is the Most Anticipated Movie of 2019 Finds Atom Tickets Survey (press release)

Established franchises top the list for fans' most anticipated movies to see in 2019 according to a survey by Atom Tickets, the social movie ticketing platform. Avengers 4: Endgame, starring Scarlett Johansson, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, and Mark Ruffalo topped multiple lists by wide margins, including overall "most anticipated," "most anticipated superhero movie," and "most excited ensemble cast to see." Captain Marvel and Toy Story 4 claimed the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively, on the overall "most anticipated" list of films to see in 2019. The bulk of the top 10 most anticipated movies are tent-pole films that have strong four-quadrant appeal, meaning they appeal to both males and females, and both over- and under-25 years old.

"Although we expect to see some movement in preferences as release dates near and studios ramp up marketing efforts, there were clear winners in each category. The battles for box office dominance between Dwayne Johnson, Lupita Nyong'o, The Avengers, and Star Wars will be epic, and the 2019 slate looks great overall," said Matthew Bakal, Chairman and Co-Founder of Atom Tickets.

"Despite all the headlines about streaming formats dominating the industry, our survey found that consumers are still very enthusiastic about seeing movies in the theater," added Bakal. "In fact, an overwhelming 86% of survey respondents said they are likely to see movies in theaters in 2019. Interestingly, a large majority of consumers — 76% — plan to watch the movies they loved and saw in the theater again at home."

Below are the top 10 overall most anticipated movies for 2019 according to Atom Tickets:

1. Avengers 4: Endgame
2. Captain Marvel
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home
4. Toy Story 4
5. The Lion King
6. Star Wars: Episode IX
7. Aladdin
8. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
9. Glass
10. Jumanji Sequel

Most anticipated superhero movies for 2019 are:

1. Avengers 4: Endgame
2. Captain Marvel
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home

Most anticipated family films for 2019 are:

1. The Lion King
2. Toy Story 4
3. Aladdin

Most anticipated horror films for 2019 are:

1. It: Chapter 2
2. Pet Sematary
3. Annabelle 3

The top three ensemble casts fans are most excited to see in 2019 are:

1. Avengers 4: Endgame with Scarlett Johansson, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, and Mark Ruffalo
2. Star Wars: Episode IX with Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, Lupita Nyong'o, and John Boyega
3. Jumanji Sequel with Karen Gillan, Dwayne Johnson, Jack Black, and Kevin Hart

Fans are most excited to see the following actors in 2019:

1. Ryan Reynolds
2. Chris Pratt
3. Dwayne Johnson
4. Will Smith
5. Keanu Reeves

Moviegoers are most excited to see the following actresses in 2019:

1. Kristen Bell
2. Lupita Nyong'o
3. Brie Larson
4. Beyoncé
5. Zendaya

Fans are most excited to see the following actors/actresses in their breakout movie roles:

1. Sophie Turner in X-Men: Dark Phoenix
2. Mena Massoud in Aladdin
3. Millie Bobby Brown in Godzilla: King of the Monsters

 

[blackdragon6]

It'll do well, keep in mind general audiences still loves Star Wars. The divide is only among us Star Wars geeks. Although I must admit that I'm only looking forward to seeing this because I'm intrigued by how JJ will tie everything up and work with what Rian left behind lol.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I'm sorry but Star Wars placing 6th is terrible. I know there's been no marketing but jeez. You'd think it would rank at least 3rd.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I thought it was ranked 3rd? The Fandango poll ranked it 3rd everywhere else.

It should definitely be above Captain marvel in my opinion

 

[Gothamsknight]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Star Wars: Episode IX was 6th in the Atom Tickets survey. It was 3rd in the Fandango survey, which is a slippage for anticipation for the Star Wars episodes because VIII and VII were 1st in their respective years. Rogue One was also 1st in anticipation a year before it came out and it finished 1st for the year of 2016. Solo was the 5th most anticipated in Fandango for 2018 and is going to finish 10th or out of the Top 10 once Aquaman and if anything else passes it.