Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

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same studio, same franchise.
Deadpool RTS - 84 AS - 91 (7 point difference)
X-Men: Apocalypse RTS - 48 AS - 71 (23 point difference)

and just throw these in here.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen RTS - 19 AS - 58 (39 pont difference)
Battleship RTS - 34 AS - 54 (20 point difference)

does it look like something funny is going on here?
 
I think it will do about 600 mil ww
200 Dom
400 o.s

I think it will do more than 200 domestic considering its at 135 in its first week.

I also think it'll do 600 (maybe more) but DOM and OS totals will be pretty neck and neck imo
 
With the recent news of the person who started the petition to have RT shutdown (which was utterly ridiculous since RT does not control how movies are reviewed) I decided to take a look at some of their aggregate scores. I present the following:

RTS = Rotten Tomatoes Score AS = Audience Score

Iron Man RTS - 94 AS - 91 (3 point difference)
The Incredible Hulk RTS - 67 AS - 71 (4 point difference)
Iron Man 2 RTS - 72 AS - 72 (No difference)
Thor RTS - 77 AS - 76 (1 point difference)
Captain America RTS - 80 AS - 74 (6 point difference)
The Avengers RTS - 92 AS - 91 (1 point difference)
Iron Man 3 RTS - 79 AS - 79 (No difference)
Thor 2 RTS - 66 AS - 78 (12 point difference)
Captain America:WS RTS - 89 AS - 92 (3 point difference)
Guardians of the Galaxy RTS- 91 AS - 92 (1 point difference)
The Avengers: AoU RTS - 75 AS - 84 (9 point difference)
Ant-Man RTS - 81 AS - 86 (5 point difference)
Captain America: CW RTS - 90 AS - 90 (no difference)

As you can see from the data, with the exception of Thor 2, all these movies have an RTS vs AS score within 10 points of each other. The discrepancy in the Thor 2 scores might be attributed to a boost from the female portion of the audience that might have given extra points for the fact Hemsworth stars in it.

Now here are the DC scores...

Man of Steel RTS - 55 AS - 75 (20 point difference)
Batman v Superman RTS - 27 AS - 65 (38 point difference)
Suicide Squad RTS - 26 AS - 72 (46 point difference)

I'm no mathematician...but it sure looks like something funny is going on here. One would not need to take too much of a leap to assume there might be some sort of agenda on the part of the critics. Or, perhaps, errors in the algorithms RT uses to aggregate the data.


I think it's no secret the general audience is more forgiving than critics and even then audience scores of 65-70 are nothing to write home about, especially for a comic book movie which usually has little trouble pleasing a crowd. I said before the longer these comic book movies go the tougher it's going to be to keep it all fresh for critics and attain the kind of critical acclaim that movies received 8-10 years ago when it was all shiny and relatively new. After nearly two decades of CBMs dominating the summer months you can't just throw the same old lazy **** on screen and expect to get the same critical response of movies from yesteryear. That's the reason movies like X-Men Apocalypse, BvS and Suicide Squad bombed with critics this year. These days if your movie is riddled with a poor story, haphazard editing, under-developed characters and topped off with the typical CGI-fest third act do you really think critics aren't going to rip it to shreds?
 
With the recent news of the person who started the petition to have RT shutdown (which was utterly ridiculous since RT does not control how movies are reviewed) I decided to take a look at some of their aggregate scores. I present the following:

RTS = Rotten Tomatoes Score AS = Audience Score

Iron Man RTS - 94 AS - 91 (3 point difference)
The Incredible Hulk RTS - 67 AS - 71 (4 point difference)
Iron Man 2 RTS - 72 AS - 72 (No difference)
Thor RTS - 77 AS - 76 (1 point difference)
Captain America RTS - 80 AS - 74 (6 point difference)
The Avengers RTS - 92 AS - 91 (1 point difference)
Iron Man 3 RTS - 79 AS - 79 (No difference)
Thor 2 RTS - 66 AS - 78 (12 point difference)
Captain America:WS RTS - 89 AS - 92 (3 point difference)
Guardians of the Galaxy RTS- 91 AS - 92 (1 point difference)
The Avengers: AoU RTS - 75 AS - 84 (9 point difference)
Ant-Man RTS - 81 AS - 86 (5 point difference)
Captain America: CW RTS - 90 AS - 90 (no difference)

As you can see from the data, with the exception of Thor 2, all these movies have an RTS vs AS score within 10 points of each other. The discrepancy in the Thor 2 scores might be attributed to a boost from the female portion of the audience that might have given extra points for the fact Hemsworth stars in it.

Now here are the DC scores...

Man of Steel RTS - 55 AS - 75 (20 point difference)
Batman v Superman RTS - 27 AS - 65 (38 point difference)
Suicide Squad RTS - 26 AS - 72 (46 point difference)

I'm no mathematician...but it sure looks like something funny is going on here. One would not need to take too much of a leap to assume there might be some sort of agenda on the part of the critics. Or, perhaps, errors in the algorithms RT uses to aggregate the data.

In short...

Sorry, but DC movies have always been hit by a HUGE amount of false reviews/ratings by a dedicated few fans. BVS literally managed to get thousands of 10/10 votes before the film was even released; it's taken this long for the average score to claw all the way back down again to compensate.

It happens all the time on IBDM too. The "Audience Rating" was thousands before the film was even released, and then you have the whole debacle of the Dark Knight vs Godfather.

DC fans wanting TDK at number one were placing thousands of "ratings" on the Godfather for 1 out of 10 so that their movie could be number 1. In the end, they managed to get TDK to number 1.. for about a week, and then it fell to number 7 (and then gone back up again, I'd wager by more fan voting - Schindlers List beneath it does have 15,000 1/10 ratings after all). By this point Godfather had so many down-votes that Shawshank was number 1 where it's been ever since. Dedicated DC fans literally broke the entire IMDB Top 10 forever to try and get their film to number 1.

It's not just DC movies that see this effect from DC fans. Civil war had a giant amount of votes come on almost instantly giving it 1 point so that it's average would be brought down. This is Fanboying at its worst -

imdb.png
 
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Sorry, but DC movies have always been hit by a HUGE amount of false reviews/ratings by a dedicated few fans. BVS literally managed to get thousands of 10/10 votes before the film was even released; it's taken this long for the average score to claw all the way back down again to compensate.

It happens all the time on IBDM too. The "Audience Rating" was thousands before the film was even released, and then you have the whole debacle of the Dark Knight vs Godfather.

DC fans wanting TDK at number one were placing thousands of "ratings" on the Godfather for 1 out of 10 so that their movie could be number 1. In the end, they managed to get TDK to number 1.. for about a week, and then it fell to number 7 (and then gone back up again, I'd wager by more fan voting - Schindlers List beneath it does have 15,000 1/10 ratings after all). By this point Godfather had so many down-votes that Shawshank was number 1 where it's been ever since. Dedicated DC fans literally broke the entire IMDB Top 10 forever to try and get their film to number 1.

It's not just DC movies that see this effect from DC fans. Civil war had a giant amount of votes come on almost instantly giving it 1 point so that it's average would be brought down. This is Fanboying at its worst -

imdb.png

Yep. All of this. Any audience score for any movie on any website that allows free voting with no restrictions should be completely ignored. You simply can't trust any system open to abuse from fanboys. Frankly, the websites need to do more to provide a decent, somewhat accurate way of gauging audience reaction, or they should take it off their pages completely.
 
I think itll do 275-320 domestically and around 600 mil foreign.
 
Rth on boxofficetheory says that it's 13 m on Monday.

Hmmm. Same as Civil War. Under BvS by 2 mil. Under Deadpool by 6 mil. Under X men Apocalypse by 1 mil.

Make of all that what you will...
 
I think what you'll find is most big budgeted films these days don't make all that much money. The real returns is in merchandise.
Yea I imagine so JMC, I'm just curious why it's a 'thing' in this instant. And a big one at that.

Hmmm. Same as Civil War. Under BvS by 2 mil. Under Deadpool by 6 mil. Under X men Apocalypse by 1 mil.

Make of all that what you will...
Ignoring two of those films fell on 4days weekends and or civic holidays of course....
BvS landed on Easter, a thing people still seemingly haven't figured out how to discern(understandably). Point being, maybe we should look at even some of the circumstances before simply putting out numbers.

13 mill(if real) is pretty significant when one looks at cbm's in particular, like it says here, that's the same as Civ war, probably beat IM3 as well. Given all the talks of that saturday drop. As stated by several others, if one actually looks at the true friday number and not the one inflated by die hards showing up at midnight, the film looks to be doing pretty decent to great. Still pretty early though.
 
Yea I imagine so JMC, I'm just curious why it's a 'thing' in this instant. And a big one at that.


Ignoring two of those films fell on 4days weekends and or civic holidays of course....
BvS landed on Easter, a thing people still seemingly haven't figured out how to discern(understandably). Point being, maybe we should look at even some of the circumstances before simply putting out numbers.

13 mill(if real) is pretty significant when one looks at cbm's in particular, like it says here, that's the same as Civ war, probably beat IM3 as well. Given all the talks of that saturday drop. As stated by several others, if one actually looks at the true friday number and not the one inflated by die hards showing up at midnight, the film looks to be doing pretty decent to great. Still pretty early though.

That's a 57% drop? Some veteran posters there predicted 60%+ so this is solid. The sat drop looks bad but Sun was good.

Edir: Oh dear, the poster there said that drop beat CW, BvS (which has a holiday Monday), and almost as good as Guardians. That's GREAT
 
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Neither CW nor BvS had the benefit of summer weekdays.
If Rth numbers hold (and they usually do) that's a decent number nontheless (especially given the suspicions some had that WB fudged the owe numbers).
 
Im still surprised by the Friday to Saturday drop.

Did the drop seem so big because they were counting the Thursday previews with Friday?
 
Yea I imagine so JMC, I'm just curious why it's a 'thing' in this instant. And a big one at that.

It's only thing because there's a fan base to care about it being a thing.
 
Im still surprised by the Friday to Saturday drop.

Did the drop seem so big because they were counting the Thursday previews with Friday?

Yes, but that's always how it's done. So it's still a substantial drop.
 
Yep. All of this. Any audience score for any movie on any website that allows free voting with no restrictions should be completely ignored. You simply can't trust any system open to abuse from fanboys. Frankly, the websites need to do more to provide a decent, somewhat accurate way of gauging audience reaction, or they should take it off their pages completely.

Screen-Shot-2016-03-27-at-1.58.35-AM-1.png


Also, see how BvS has been steadily dropping.

From a 73% to a 65% and a score of 3.8 to 3.6.

I have a feeling that SS will suffer the same thing as it's score right now after only a few days is 72% and 3.8.
 
I think itll do 275-320 domestically and around 600 mil foreign.

I feel better about its chances of hitting $300 million domestic after the $13 million Monday result.
 
Good start to the weekday numbers.
 
Wow....nice Monday numbers. It would be great if it hits at least $300M domestic.
 
Sorry, but DC movies have always been hit by a HUGE amount of false reviews/ratings by a dedicated few fans. BVS literally managed to get thousands of 10/10 votes before the film was even released; it's taken this long for the average score to claw all the way back down again to compensate.

It happens all the time on IBDM too. The "Audience Rating" was thousands before the film was even released, and then you have the whole debacle of the Dark Knight vs Godfather.

DC fans wanting TDK at number one were placing thousands of "ratings" on the Godfather for 1 out of 10 so that their movie could be number 1. In the end, they managed to get TDK to number 1.. for about a week, and then it fell to number 7 (and then gone back up again, I'd wager by more fan voting - Schindlers List beneath it does have 15,000 1/10 ratings after all). By this point Godfather had so many down-votes that Shawshank was number 1 where it's been ever since. Dedicated DC fans literally broke the entire IMDB Top 10 forever to try and get their film to number 1.

It's not just DC movies that see this effect from DC fans. Civil war had a giant amount of votes come on almost instantly giving it 1 point so that it's average would be brought down. This is Fanboying at its worst -

imdb.png
Wow, Dc fans are scary. Didn't they also send death threats to reviewers who didn't like TDK or tdkr?
 
Wow, Dc fans are scary. Didn't they also send death threats to reviewers who didn't like TDK or tdkr?

Yes, for TDKR. One of the most shameful moments in Bat fan history.
 
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