Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[Paradox1]

This movie in this economy made a 105million in 3weeks so I don't understand how someone could say it flopped.So far this year this movie is in the top 6 gross movies for the year and were in June. To me that says a lot about how bad this economy is and that could you really ask for more. Star Trek like Kung Fu Panda before it has really out done all expectations and cause of that TS and Incredible Hulk before it suffers.

The story was just pulling in a lot of different directions but none of them being the right one. I thought before it came it out finally I'd see Connor as this messiah but thats not what I got.

 

[Crook]

The economy? Oh, that's cute. We're blatantly ignoring literally dozens of films that have been break-out successes in the past year and a half.

 

[Charlie The Red]

A major summer action movie premiering second to Night at the Museum 2, dropping off 60% in its second week to the #3 position, counts as a flop IMO.

Also, you say that it's number 6 as far as this year's top grossing films, but let's not forget that it's only the second week of June, with Transformers 2, Harry Potter, GI Joe and others still set to premiere. Add that to the fact that it's been a year full of bad movies, and that number 6 spot isn't too impressive.

I'd be hard-pressed to say that T:S will rank even in the Top 10 at the box office once this Summer is through...and let's not forget Avatar at the end of the year. By the end of this year T:S will be left in the dust and forgotten.

 

[Alonsovich]

I think TheVileOne's right. I don't think Warner Brothers or Sony will invest any money in a Terminator sequel if projected costs are about the same as TS's was ($200 million plus P&A). If it's half that amount, then yeah I can see them doing it.

Plus, they're gonna set ground rules for McG to follow. If Barrandov Studios in Prague can make sets for 2/3's less than what it'll cost in the U.S. or the UK (think Alien vs. Predator), then McG should probably shoot in Europe to cut set construction costs down.

Let's face it. TS underperformed -- if Halycon is lucky maybe after DVD and Blu-ray sales TS will get a sequel. It's either going to happen, or it won't.

Interesting fact... they were going to shoot in Budapest. Then McG and the producers changed it to New Mexico and LA. I'm pretty sure that has to do with the high budget... having shot in eastern europe this could've been a 150 million film perfectly...

 

[Charlie The Red]

Interesting fact... they were going to shoot in Budapest. Then McG and the producers changed it to New Mexico and LA. I'm pretty sure that has to do with the high budget... having shot in eastern europe this could've been a 150 million film perfectly...

Or maybe it was McG's fear of flying?

Didn't he end up turning down Superman Returns because he was afraid of flying to Sydney?

 

[Alonsovich]

Or maybe it was McG's fear of flying?

Didn't he end up turning down Superman Returns because he was afraid of flying to Sydney?

That's 100% sure that's the reason... but for that I'm pretty sure they could've saved a big chunk of budget...

And yes... the McG/Abrams Superman didn't happen because McG didn't get on a plane to Sydney for location scouting...

 

[Alonsovich]

The project angel crap was stupid anyway.

All these sequels were stupid.

Also I blame everyone, not just Halycon or McG. Plenty of blame to go around. WB was who McG was talking about as well last year with regards to the rating.

Also, the R-rating thing was ******** because at PG-13 they failed to draw in the teenagers and adolescents. Most of the audience that did see the movie were adults.

It may be stupid... but...

Set in post-apocalyptic 2018, John Connor is the man fated to lead the human resistance against Skynet and its army of Terminators. But the future Connor was raised to believe in is altered in part by the appearance of Marcus Wright, a stranger whose last memory is of being on death row. Connor must decide whether Marcus has been sent from the future, or rescued from the past. As Skynet prepares its final onslaught, Connor and Marcus both embark on an odyssey that takes them into the heart of Skynet’s operations, where they uncover the terrible secret behind the possible annihilation of mankind.


It was enough important to be in the synopsis of the film... what they cut out of this... is no small part of the film. It's a BIG chunk...

 

[EnzoValenzetti]

This movie in this economy made a 105million in 3weeks so I don't understand how someone could say it flopped.So far this year this movie is in the top 6 gross movies for the year and were in June. To me that says a lot about how bad this economy is and that could you really ask for more.

Lol. Bad economy means a better box office. Not the other way around.

Box office revenues are up 10% compared to last year.

Also, Terminator: Salvation is at the moment number 11 in domestic gross and number 8 in worldwide gross. It's doing ok overseas, so perhaps that will somewhat save it. But you seem to be missing that this movie cost a lot of money to produce and market, and Hollywood wants that money back, preferably with a lot of profit. If it doesn't do that, there's no reason for making a sequel.

 

[Cain]

Hollywood accounting.

I think you guys are being delusional about the sequel.

correct

 

[Showtime]

There isn't going to be a sequel. This movie is a flop. I don't know how this is even debatable at this point.

 

[Eric Brooks]

By the end of this year T:S will be left in the dust and forgotten.

well what happened with the 04 Punisher? It did horrible in theaters but when a directors cut was released and after good worth of mouth, bam......we got another Punisher. Now I know it wasn't the greatest Punisher movie but from what I heard round the mill, the good dvd sales are what warrented War Zone to be made

to me, it seems a lot of character developement, plot points, and just flat out important scenes were cut from Salvation which even lead to sloppy editing and essentionally, bad word of mouth.

now, it's my firm beliefe that much like Punisher, if a Directors Cut is released on DVD and good enough word of mouth is generated from it, it very well could warrent a sequel (thus saving the franchise)

what I'm getting at, if strategized properly, it aint over till that fat broad sings her ass off

 

[Cain]

There isn't going to be a sequel. This movie is a flop. I don't know how this is even debatable at this point.

Miseducation, a lot of dudes aren't factoring the cut going to theatre chains, the cut that pays back for marketing costs etc. they're just looking at production budget like that's the only expense on a major motion picture or something.

 

[Showtime]

Miseducation, a lot of dudes aren't factoring the cut going to theatre chains, the cut that pays back for marketing costs etc. they're just looking at production budget like that's the only expense on a major motion picture or something.

Not to mention the budget for this film was 200 Million...reported...which usually means it was more than that figure. This film is going to make around 120-130 million when it is all said and done, 70 million plus less then its budget domestically, ie where it counts.

well what happened with the 04 Punisher? It did horrible in theaters but when a directors cut was released and after good worth of mouth, bam......we got another Punisher. Now I know it wasn't the greatest Punisher movie but from what I heard round the mill, the good dvd sales are what warrented War Zone to be made

what I'm getting at, if strategized properly, it aint over till that fat broad sings her ass off

Punisher cost 33 Million and made 33 million domestically. Punisher War Zone cost 35 million and made back 8 Million domestically.

Salvation cost 200 million +. It's apples and oranges.

 

[mclay18]

Interesting fact... they were going to shoot in Budapest. Then McG and the producers changed it to New Mexico and LA. I'm pretty sure that has to do with the high budget... having shot in eastern europe this could've been a 150 million film perfectly...

I forgot about McG's fear of flying, but I mean Halcyon should've hired a director who isn't afraid or reluctant of flying overseas to make a movie (otherwise you face going overbudget and become a liability for the studio). Heck, if I were him I'd have happily gone to Prague or Budapest to shoot the film at a cheaper price. If it was $120-$150 million as opposed to $200 million the loss wouldn't have been nearly so deep.

 

[Eric Brooks]

Not to mention the budget for this film was 200 Million...reported...which usually means it was more than that figure. This film is going to make around 120-130 million when it is all said and done, 70 million plus less then its budget domestically, ie where it counts.



Punisher cost 33 Million and made 33 million domestically. Punisher War Zone cost 35 million and made back 8 Million domestically.

Salvation cost 200 million +. It's apples and oranges.

they spent 200 Million on Salvation and cut roughly a little more than a half hour off?

who's the einstein behind THAT decision?

 

[Alonsovich]

they spent 200 Million on Salvation and cut roughly a little more than a half hour off?

who's the einstein behind THAT decision?

For sure the producers (i.e. Halcyon)... shorter film + lower rating = more showings + bigger target audience... that in their minds is more $$$... if it flops the only thing they have to do is wait until a year after the DVD is out to release a DC to make up for the losses... a big case of this is Scott's Kingdom of Heaven... film got butchered from a 3h 15 mins runtime to roughly 2 hours...

 

[Alonsovich]

I forgot about McG's fear of flying, but I mean Halcyon should've hired a director who isn't afraid or reluctant of flying overseas to make a movie (otherwise you face going overbudget and become a liability for the studio). Heck, if I were him I'd have happily gone to Prague or Budapest to shoot the film at a cheaper price. If it was $120-$150 million as opposed to $200 million the loss wouldn't have been nearly so deep.

Because they thought it would be a hit... if Halcyon makes another one expect it to cost 50-70 million less and to be filmed in one of those places...

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

In T1 Kyle was from the year 2029 which I would think by then the war has gotten worse thus humans having to lay low during the day. It's just a natural progression of war.

Kyle said he grew up after the nuclear war, then later says to Sarah when telling her about his 'world' :

"You stay down by day, but....at night you can move around, you still have to be careful as the HK's use infra-red.....but their not too bright......John taught us ways to dust them."

Doesnt mention anything about being able to move around in the day previously. The HK's were being used from the start as soldiers/weapons. Reese says the war escalated when the infiltrators came in.

How exactly did McG get the T-600's wrong?

They are meant to be the first infiltration units, could you see that thing infiltrating a human stronghold? Reese said they were easy to spot because they had rubber skin. I'm sure he would have mentioned if they were 9 foot tall and had guns attached to their arms, as that would make them easy to spot also.

 

[mclay18]

Because they thought it would be a hit... if Halcyon makes another one expect it to cost 50-70 million less and to be filmed in one of those places...

Yeah, but there had to been trepidation about making another Terminator movie since T3 underperformed. Bringing Christian Bale and Jonathan Nolan isn't going to guarantee a $200 million+ haul, they should've been cautious and got someone who can shoot on a tight budget instead of automatically assuming a BB or TDK-sized haul for TS because of the J. Nolan and Bale factor alone.

*sigh* Another sign of studio overspending not paying off.

 

[Celestial]

I thought the problem with T3 was Schwarzenegger's contract made it hard for anyone other than him to make a profit. Bale was considerably cheaper (rumoured $8m up front, compared to $29.5m and surely a less favourable backend deal). I can't see how WB will come out with a profit, but Sony are in with a chance.

 

[dark_b]

For sure the producers (i.e. Halcyon)... shorter film + lower rating = more showings + bigger target audience... that in their minds is more $$$... if it flops the only thing they have to do is wait until a year after the DVD is out to release a DC to make up for the losses... a big case of this is Scott's Kingdom of Heaven... film got butchered from a 3h 15 mins runtime to roughly 2 hours...

he he he

 

[Alonsovich]

he he he

I'll give you the examples of Kingdom of Heaven, Daredevil and Alien 3...

 

[dark_b]

I'll give you the examples of Kingdom of Heaven, Daredevil and Alien 3...

those movies made enough money for a sequel?

whait a minute you seriously think that with the DVD's they will make a sequel?

 

[Alonsovich]

those movies made enough money for a sequel?

whait a minute you seriously think that with the DVD's they will make a sequel?

The guy from your avatar got a sequel that way...

 

[dark_b]

The guy from your avatar got a sequel that way...

the guy from my avatar made 200 millions domestic