The 2012 Iowa Caucuses

[Marx]

We're less than a month to go until the first public vote of the 2012 presidential nomination process gets underway!

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss.

 

[Matt]

Well, I wouldn't exactly call the Iowa caucus a public vote.

Hard to say what will happen. Gingrich, I could see self-destructing as he gets more and more cocky. If that happens, I don't see the conservatives having time to find and build up yet another anti-Romney, so Romney could conceivably win Iowa.

Of course, there is always the chance that Bachmann or Paul could win Iowa because both have rabid supporters and caucuses aren't about who has the most votes but rather whose supporters can scream the loudest.

 

[Marx]

I hate caucuses and think they should all be done away with.

 

[Raiden]

I don't think winning the Iowa Caucus means that candidate will receive his party's nomination for the presidency, but it is the first real contest between the candidates so they will try to go all out to win it. Right now it seems like it is Newt's caucus to lose.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul are going to end up winning Iowa.

I think that Mitt Romney is currently the favorite in Iowa. Romney came in second last time in Iowa with 25% of the vote. I think it's easy to see that most of these voters are going to come back and vote for Romney yet again. What really hurt Romney in 2008 was that the "moderate" Iowa caucus goers were split between Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Giuliani, all the while the social conservative faction united behind Mike Huckabee. Do you think that the people who voted for these candidates, McCain and Giuliani in particular are going to vote for someone like Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, or Rick Santorum? Most of them are going to go for a candidate like Romney.

With Gingrich as the front runner, he's already acting a little too cocky as opposed to his more humble self that allowed him to perform well in the debates. It's not if, but a matter of when Gingrich will fumble the way Bachmann, Perry, and Cain have. Another thing that hurts Gingrich is that unlike the last time, the social conservative vote is split between Gingrich, Perry (who has a lot of money for a national campaign), Bachmann (who has a lot of money for Iowa), and Santorum. Ron Paul (who also has a lot of money for Iowa) is hammering hard on Gingrich which will hurt him with conservatives. While Gingrich is performing well, he also has a rather poor organization and he just isn't a winnable candidate due to his past.

Now if you add bad weather into this mix, Ron Paul will win. He is on the rise in Iowa and he has the money to follow up on it. And his followers are practically zealots. They'll do anything for the man, even braving the snow while the rest will stay home. It's widely believed within the GOP that if the weather is bad in Iowa, Paul has this one.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I don't think winning the Iowa Caucus means that candidate will receive his party's nomination for the presidency, but it is the first real contest between the candidates so they will try to go all out to win it. Right now it seems like it is Newt's caucus to lose.

If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, it's over. He's guaranteed the nomination. If Ron Paul wins Iowa, it will cause such a disturbance within the GOP race. Unlike last time, Iowa really has the chance of massively determining the GOP candidate depending on who wins.

 

[Marx]

The latest poll from the Des Moines Register had Romney polling in third place.

 

[Marx]

UPDATE: CAMPAIGNS BEGIN TO "FLOOD" IOWA WITH ADS AHEAD OF CAUCUS
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/27/politics/iowa-caucuses-near/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

 

[Marx]

SANTORUM: IF I FINISH DEAD LAST IN IOWA, I'M OUT OF THE 2012 RACE
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/santorum-if-im-last-in-iowa-im-out/

 

[Marx]

UPDATE: ROMNEY LOWERS EXPECTATIONS FOR IOWA CAUCUS
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/romney-lowers-expectations-for-iowa/

 

[hippie_hunter]

SANTORUM: IF I FINISH DEAD LAST IN IOWA, I'M OUT OF THE 2012 RACE
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/santorum-if-im-last-in-iowa-im-out/

I think that Santorum will likely end up in third or fourth place in the Iowa caucuses

UPDATE: ROMNEY LOWERS EXPECTATIONS FOR IOWA CAUCUS
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/romney-lowers-expectations-for-iowa/

I'd be very surprised if Romney doesn't come in first or second in the Iowa Caucus.

 

[Marx]

POLL: GINGRICH'S STOCK IN IOWA "PLUNGING"
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

 

[enterthemadness]

POLL: GINGRICH'S STOCK IN IOWA "PLUNGING"
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

Hey hey hey, I got a joke.

Since it looks like a Romney vs Paul now, it could be called ''The I play Angry Birds vs The I hate it when Angry Birds wake me up at 5am' guy

 

[Venom'sDad]

Iowa GOP moving "Vote-Count" to an "Undisclosed Location"!!!

Hmmmm.........

 

[redfirebird2008]

Hopefully Paul can win, if for no other reason than to force the national media to give him more of a chance to speak in the debates. It's going to suck if Romney pulls a clean sweep. Hell, it's going to suck if Romney ends up the nominee regardless of how he gets there. Dude is such a fraud, it's infuriating.

 

[Venom'sDad]

America like Frauds

 

[hippie_hunter]

Mitt Romney has taken the lead in RCP's average on the Iowa caucuses. Romney also leads in polls taken by Rasmussen, CNN/Time, and NBC/Marist. Rick Santorum is surging to third place and has tied with Newt Gingrich in the RCP average.

 

[NickSox]

It's absolutely insane here in Iowa with the amount of TV ads, all negative. It's every commercial break. On a side note, I work in television and have gotten to meet all of the candidates for live shots with CNN and some various other events. I was backstage at a movie premiere in Des Moines that Santorum, Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich all spoke and Santorum really shook things up there. I'm not surprised that within a day of that speech that he started climbing the polls. In person, he was easily the most accessible and friendly, followed closely by Perry.

 

[enterthemadness]

Mitt Romney has taken the lead in RCP's average on the Iowa caucuses. Romney also leads in polls taken by Rasmussen, CNN/Time, and NBC/Marist. Rick Santorum is surging to third place and has tied with Newt Gingrich in the RCP average.

As long as Paul finishes 1-3 in Iowa his campaign is in good shape. He should outlast Bachmann and Perry, maybe even Newt. Santorum has new life.

 

[hippie_hunter]

As long as Paul finishes 1-3 in Iowa his campaign is in good shape. He should outlast Bachmann and Perry, maybe even Newt. Santorum has new life.

If Ron Paul does not win Iowa, he isn't going to win the nomination period. The best he can do after that is accumulate various second place finishes in an attempt to get exposure for his platform at the Republican National Convention.

If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, this contest is over and done with. No matter how well Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, or Rick Perry do. Romney has the nomination in the bag if he wins Iowa.

 

[Venom'sDad]

Personally, I think it more important for Paul to win NH than Iowa. If can't win the NH Primary, then he made start to fade and consider running as a Third Party Candidate.

Romney must win SC & FL, if he does not he may have to go the distance, and fade into victory, which would help Obama.

 

[enterthemadness]

If Ron Paul does not win Iowa, he isn't going to win the nomination period. The best he can do after that is accumulate various second place finishes in an attempt to get exposure for his platform at the Republican National Convention.

If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, this contest is over and done with. No matter how well Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, or Rick Perry do. Romney has the nomination in the bag if he wins Iowa.

Why...why must you be so negative?

 

[Marx]

He's not being negative. He's being realistic.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Personally, I think it more important for Paul to win NH than Iowa.

Paul needs to win Iowa though. Paul is perhaps the only candidate that could win Iowa and then use it as momentum to win New Hampshire on account that he's ideologically compatible with Iowa as opposed to Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum.

Winning Iowa would give Paul the credibility he needs to win elsewhere. It shows that people would take him seriously. It's why CNN and the GOP establishment is fear mongering Iowa voters that a Ron Paul victory would make Iowa irrelevant.

If can't win the NH Primary, then he made start to fade and consider running as a Third Party Candidate.

Paul isn't going to run as a third party candidate, not if he wants to ruin his son Rand's Senate career or the potential political career of his other son Robert.

Romney must win SC & FL, if he does not he may have to go the distance, and fade into victory, which would help Obama.

Romney doesn't need to win South Carolina. Flordia yes, but not South Carolina. However, if Romney wins Iowa, followed by a victory in New Hampshire, he'll probably be the favorite to win South Carolina as well after the media will all but declare him the nominee along with getting most of John McCain's votes and the ones he got in 2008.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Why...why must you be so negative?

He's not being negative. He's being realistic.

It's exactly as Marx says, I'm not being negative. I do believe in the hard core libertarian ideology that Ron Paul preaches. However, I am also being realistic. Even if he does win Iowa, Paul has a very steep hill to climb. The GOP establishment is against him, the media is against him (especially CNN), and the libertarian wing is still a rather small wing of the GOP as opposed to the neo-conservative, Evangelical, and moderate factions within the GOP.

You see, by being realistic, I'm not going to be disappointed when Ron Paul does not win the nomination. Because I expect it. If he by some miracle does though, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.