The 2012 Kansas, US Virgin Islands, and Guam Caucuses

[Marx]

The caucuses for Kansas, US Virgin Islands, and Guam take place on March 10th. Who will win? Who will lose?

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses that take place on the same day will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss.

 

[Dr. Evil]

Do votes matter for USVI and Guam? I doubt it. Besides, most of this thread will be about Kansas anyways.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Guam and the US Virgin Islands still send delegates to the conventions to the primaries along with American Samoa and Puerto Rico.

Anyways, Mitt Romney will win the USVI and Guam most likely. Rick Santorum will win Kansas

 

[SV Fan]

Doesn't the Winner of the Virgin Islands usually go on to win the GOP nomination?

 

[hippie_hunter]

Doesn't the Winner of the Virgin Islands usually go on to win the GOP nomination?

The non-state islands (Guam, US Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico, American Samoa) tend to go for the establishment supported candidates by whopping margins. In 2008, John McCain won all of those territories except for the Virgin Islands (where the winner was "uncommitted" with 47% of the vote)

In other news, Rick Santorum has won the Kansas Caucuses capturing over 50% of the vote with 83% reporting. Mitt Romney is on the verge of winning the Wyoming Convention with 47% of the vote with 61% reporting.

Full results of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands have been reported

Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses
Mitt Romney - 738 votes (87%) - 9 delegates
Rick Santorum - 51 votes (6%)
Ron Paul - 25 votes (3%)
Newt Gingrich - 24 votes (3%)

Guam Convention
Mitt Romney - 215 votes (100%) - 9 delegates
Rick Santorum - 0 votes (0%)
Newt Gingrich - 0 votes (0%)
Ron Paul - 0 votes (0%)

 

[SV Fan]

Look like Romney won the big Virgin Islands caucus

http://www.boston.com/news/world/la.../03/10/romney_wins_virgin_islands_gop_caucus/

ST. THOMAS, U.S. Virgin Islands—The Republican Party chairman in the U.S. Virgin Islands says Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney has won the territory's GOP caucus.

Chairman Herb Schoenbaum says Romney can count on seven delegates from the Virgin Islands. He already had three superdelegates before Saturday's caucuses and he picked up three more in voting in St. Thomas and St. Croix. After the vote, an uncommitted delegate switched to Romney.

Ron Paul got one delegate, and one delegate remains uncommitted.

Residents of the U.S. Virgin Islands can participate in primaries but like residents of nearby Puerto Rico cannot vote in the general election

It would be pretty funny if these 25 delegates((Guam, US Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas) are what puts Romney over the top.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Full final results:

Wyoming County Convention
Mitt Romney - 577 votes (44%) - 7 delegates
Rick Santorum - 360 votes (27.5%) - 2 delegates (1 in dispute)
Uncommitted - 203 votes (15%) - 1 delegate
Ron Paul - 160 votes (12%) - 1 delegate
Newt Gingrich - 7 votes (0.5%) - 0 delegates

Kansas Caucus
Rick Santorum - 15,290 votes (51%) - 33 delegates
Mitt Romney - 6,250 votes (21%) - 7 delegates
Newt Gingrich - 4,298 votes (14%) - 0 delegates
Ron Paul - 3,767 votes (13%) - 0 delegates

U.S. Virgin Islands Caucus
Mitt Romney - 132 votes (34%) - 7 delegates
Ron Paul - 112 votes (29%) - 1 delegate
Uncommitted - 99 votes (26%) - 0 delegates
Rick Santorum - 23 votes (6%) - 0 delegates
Newt Gingrich - 18 votes (5%) - 0 delegates

Total
Rick Santorum - 15,724 votes (49%) - 35 delegates (1 in dispute)
Mitt Romney - 7,912 votes (25%) - 39 delegates
Newt Gingrich - 4,347 votes (14%) - 0 delegates
Ron Paul - 4,064 votes (13%) - 2 delegates

 

[hippie_hunter]

Look like Romney won the big Virgin Islands caucus

http://www.boston.com/news/world/la.../03/10/romney_wins_virgin_islands_gop_caucus/



It would be pretty funny if these 25 delegates((Guam, US Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas) are what puts Romney over the top.

Today it kinda did. Santorum won big in Kansas, but because of Romney getting a measly 7 delegates from Kansas along with dominating the island caucuses, Santorum only got one more delegate than Romney today. And when Romney has such a large lead over Santorum in the delegate race, a +1 net gain over Romney is going to mean jack.

Despite that, it was a good day for Santorum because he got a much needed big margin victory after his loss in Ohio and under-performance in Oklahoma and Georgia. The only bright spot for Santorum on Super Tuesday was not only winning North Dakota but exceeding expectations there by a long shot. This could give him some momentum into Alabama and Mississippi.

But it was also a good day for Romney because his dominance of the island caucuses essentially prevented Santorum from doing any sort of catch up in the delegate race. EDIT: Actually Romney expanded his delegate lead today thanks to Wyoming's bizarre process.

The biggest loser of today was Ron Paul. He has dedicated his entire efforts into winning the caucus contests and look at what happened. Kansas rejected him completely with a fourth place finish, he only got one delegate from the U.S. Virgin Islands, and nothing to show in the other caucuses. At least Newt Gingrich has the excuse of saying that he isn't trying.

 

[Franklin Richards]

So I just got off work. Has everything fallen into chaos yet?

 

[hippie_hunter]

With the Wyoming delegates announced, Mitt Romney has actually coming out on top today in the delegate count, not Santorum.

 

[SV Fan]

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2012/03/12/did-ron-paul-win-the-virgin-island-caucus/

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul reportedly won the U.S. Virgin Island caucuses Saturday, although it was reported rival Mitt Romney secured the victory.

According to the U.S. Virgin Islands’ Republican Party results, Mr. Paul won with 29 percent of the votes, followed by Mr. Romney at 26 percent.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum placed in third with six percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at three percent of the votes.

In contrast, The Associated Press and several other major media outlets reported Mr. Romney as the winner of the Virgin Island caucuses, because he actually comes away from the election with more delegates.

The win results in Mr. Paul picking up one delegate vote, while Mr. Romney will pick up seven delegates because of the unique Republican Party rules applying to the winner of the islands’ caucuses.

​

 

[hippie_hunter]

Well, it looks like the media totally botched up reporting on the Virgin Islands

US Virgin Islands Caucus
Uncommitted - 130 votes (34%) - 1 delegate
Ron Paul - 112 votes (29%) - 1 delegate
Mitt Romney - 101 votes (26%) - 7 delegates
Rick Santorum - 23 votes (6%) - 0 delegates
Newt Gingrich - 18 votes (5%) - 0 delegates

 

[SV Fan]

Ron Paul - 112 votes (29%) - 1 delegate
Mitt Romney - 101 votes (26%) - 7 delegates

I don't get how out of this Paul only gets 1 delegate but Romney gets 7